The Impact of Tourism Revenues in Turkey on Productivity Per Worker: ARDL Approach

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 15 , 263 - 271, 31.03.2020

Dilek Tandoğan , Murat Can Genç

Öz

Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin İşgücü Verimliliği Üzerine Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Abstract: The
short-run and long-run effects of tourism revenues on output per worker is
examined for the Turkish economy during 1988-2018. The first step is to test
the order of integration of the variables. The results of Augmented
Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test indicated that the series of trade openness has not a
unit root on the level I (0) the other series has not a unit root first
differences level I (1). Therefore, this study investigates the effects of
tourism revenues on output per worker by using ARDL bounds testing approach
developed by Pesaran et al. (2001).  The
F-statistic estimated for the models were found to be greater than the critical
values of Narayan (2005) at the significance level of 5%, thus the presence of
cointegration between the variables was confirmed. After the cointegration
relationship between the variables was determined, the long-run coefficients
were estimated by using ARDL model. The results obtained from ARDL (3,2,1,2,1)
estimations indicate that tourism revenues have a positive and statistically
significant effect on output per worker in the short-run. The significance of
this empirical results is that tourism sector can be considered as an effective
economic policy instrument increasing out per worker. Overall the paper
suggests that developments of tourism sector increases output per worker for
Turkish economy.

Öz: Turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına çıktı üzerindeki
kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri Türkiye ekonomisi için 1988-2018 döneminde
araştırılmıştır. İlk adım değişkenlerin bütünleşme derecesini test etmektir.
Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) testi sonuçları ticari açıklık değişkenin
seviyesinde I(0) durağan diğer değişkenlerin ise farkında I(1) durağan
olduklarını göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma Pesaran ve diğerleri (2001)
tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi ile turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına
çıktı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Modelin tahmininden elde edilen F
istatistiği Narayan (2005) %5 anlamlılık seviyesi kritik değerinden büyük
olarak bulunduğundan değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu
bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi
belirlendikten sonra ARDL modeli kullanılarak uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin
edilmiştir. ARDL (3,2,1,2,1) modelinin tahminlerinden elde edilen bulgular
turizm gelirlerinin işçi başına çıktıyı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif
yönde kısa dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu ampirik sonuçların önemi işçi
başına çıktının artırılmasında etkin ekonomik politika aracı olarak turizm
sektörünün düşünülebilmesidir. Sonuçta çalışma turizm sektöründeki gelişmelerin
Türkiye için işçi başına çıktıyı artırmasını önermektedir.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism Revenues, Output Per Worker, ARDL Approach

Kaynakça

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