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Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 60, 894 - 919, 31.10.2020

Alper Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.682442

Öz

This research aims to investigate Turkey African relationship on the basis of international trade between Turkey and selected African countries. Most of African economies have experienced rapid economic growth as an outward oriented nation recently and foreign trade between Africa-Turkey has been grown continuously. In this frame we want to find out contribution of Turkish-African trade relationship on their economic growth on the basis of selected variables. For this purpose we used real gross domestic product (Rgdp) of 20 African countries as a proxy for ‘economic growth’’ and foreign trade volume (FTV) and balance of trade (BoT) with Turkey as a proxy for ‘’foreign trade’’. In this frame we employed bootstrap panel causality test developed by Kónya (2006) with countryspecific bootstrap critical values for the panel of twenty selected African countries for the period 1990–2016. Empirical results point out a unidirectional causality relationship between variables which runs from foreign trade to real GDP.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Trade Economic Growth Panel Data

Destekleyen Kurum

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Proje Numarası

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Teşekkür

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Kaynakça

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  • Ahmand, J. and Harnhirun, S. (1996). Cointegration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(2), 413-416.
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  • Awokuse, T. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-led or Import-led?. Applied Economics, 40 (2), 161-173.
  • Bacchi, E. (2015). A Timeline of the Turkish Africa Policy, https://ovipot.hypotheses.org/13639.
  • Bahmani, O. M. and Alse J. (1993). Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling. Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 535–542.
  • Bbaale, E. and Mutenyo, J. (2011). Export Composition and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa A Panel Analysis. Journal of Sustainable Development, 6 (1), 1–19.
  • Bafana, B. (2016). Africa’s Cities of the Future. Africa Renewal, Apr. 2016, Africa’s Cities of the Future, 30 (1), 4-5.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 5 (2), 181-191.
  • Bhorat, H., Karmen, N. and Kavisha, P. (2015). Aspiring Africa: Overcoming Development Challenges to Meet Its Long- Term Vision. Mimeograph presented at Developmental States Conference (Pretoria).
  • Bilgiç, A. and Nascimento, D. (2014). Turkey’s New Focus on Africa: Causes and Challenges. Norwegian Pace Building Resource Centre (Policy Brief), September 2014.
  • British Petrol. (2016). Statistical Review of World Energy, 65th Edition, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/ bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf.
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  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253.
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A Parametric Approach to The Estimation Of Cointegration Vectors In Panel Data. Econometric Review, 24 (2), 151–173.
  • Brueckner, M. and Lederman, D. (2015). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economica, 82, 1302–1323.
  • Bourdon, M. H., Mouel, L. C. and Vijil, M. (2017). The Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth: Some New Insights On The Openness Measurement Issue. The World Economy, 41 (1), 59-76.
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  • Clos, J. (2016). Urbanization Is A Tool For Development. Africa Renewal, April 2016, 30 (1), https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2016/urbanization-tool-development.
  • Dodo, M. (2016). Understanding New Turkey-Africa Relations: Rationale and Challenges. Journal of Alternative Perspectives in the Social Sciences, 7 (4), 612-642.
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  • Edoho, F. (2011). Globalization and Marginalization of Africa: Contextualization of China-Africa Relations. Africa Today, 58 (1), 103-124.
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Türkiye-Afrika Ticari İlişkileri; Panel Nedensellik Analizi Bağlamında Yeni Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 60, 894 - 919, 31.10.2020

Alper Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.682442

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye-Afrika arasındaki ticari ilişkileri seçilmiş Afrika ülkeleri bağlamında incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. Geçtiğimiz dönemlerde pek çok Afrika ülkesi dışa dönük ekonomi anlayışı çerçevesinde hızlı bir büyüme sürecine girmiş ve bu süreçte Türkiye-Afrika ticari ilişkileri sürekli gelişmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin söz konusu ticaretinin seçilmiş Afrika ülkeleri bağlamında ekonomik büyüme sürecinde ne kadar etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaya çalıştık. Bu doğrultuda ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen, 20 Afrika ülkesine ait reel GSYİH (Rgdp) rakamlarını ve dış ticaret değikenini temsilen de dış ticaret hacmi (FTV) ve ödemeler dengesi (BoT) verilerini kullandık. Bu çerçevede 2006 yılında Konya tarafından geliştirilen ve SUR (Görünürde İlişkisiz Regresyon) yöntemine dayanan panel nedensellik testi, seçilmiş 20 Afrika ülkesinin 1990-2016 dönemine ait verilerine uygulanmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre dış ticaret değişkenlerinden ekonomik büyüme doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Ticaret Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Veri Modelleri

Proje Numarası

-

Kaynakça

  • Adeleye, J. O., Adeteye, O. S. and Adewuyi, M.O. (2015). Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1988-2012). International Journal of Financial Research, 6 (3), 163-172.
  • Agosin, M. (1999). Trade and Growth in Chile. Cepal Review, August 1999, 68, 79–100.
  • Ahmed, J. and Kwan, C. C. (1991). Causality Between Exports And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Africa. Economic Letters, 37 (3), 243-248.
  • Ahmand, J. and Harnhirun, S. (1996). Cointegration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(2), 413-416.
  • Amirkhalkhali, S. and Dar A. (1995). A Varying-Coefficients Model Of Export Expansion, Factor Accumulation And Economic Growth: Evidence From Cross Country Time Series Data. Economic Modelling, 12 (4), 435-441.
  • Amoateng, K. and Amoako-Adu, B. (1996). Economic Growth, Export And External Debt Causality: The Case Of African Countries. Applied Economics, 28 (1), 21-27.
  • Arodoye, N. L. and Iyoha, M.H. (2014). Foreign Trade-Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 5 (1), 121-141.
  • Awokuse, T. (2007). Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies. Economics Letters, 94, 389-395.
  • Awokuse, T. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-led or Import-led?. Applied Economics, 40 (2), 161-173.
  • Bacchi, E. (2015). A Timeline of the Turkish Africa Policy, https://ovipot.hypotheses.org/13639.
  • Bahmani, O. M. and Alse J. (1993). Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling. Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 535–542.
  • Bbaale, E. and Mutenyo, J. (2011). Export Composition and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa A Panel Analysis. Journal of Sustainable Development, 6 (1), 1–19.
  • Bafana, B. (2016). Africa’s Cities of the Future. Africa Renewal, Apr. 2016, Africa’s Cities of the Future, 30 (1), 4-5.
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 5 (2), 181-191.
  • Bhorat, H., Karmen, N. and Kavisha, P. (2015). Aspiring Africa: Overcoming Development Challenges to Meet Its Long- Term Vision. Mimeograph presented at Developmental States Conference (Pretoria).
  • Bilgiç, A. and Nascimento, D. (2014). Turkey’s New Focus on Africa: Causes and Challenges. Norwegian Pace Building Resource Centre (Policy Brief), September 2014.
  • British Petrol. (2016). Statistical Review of World Energy, 65th Edition, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/ bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf.
  • Brempong, K. G. (1991). Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 39 (4), 815-828.
  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253.
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A Parametric Approach to The Estimation Of Cointegration Vectors In Panel Data. Econometric Review, 24 (2), 151–173.
  • Brueckner, M. and Lederman, D. (2015). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economica, 82, 1302–1323.
  • Bourdon, M. H., Mouel, L. C. and Vijil, M. (2017). The Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth: Some New Insights On The Openness Measurement Issue. The World Economy, 41 (1), 59-76.
  • Buffie, E. (1992). On the Condition For Export-Led Growth. Canadian Journal of Economics, 25 (1), 211-225.
  • Canning, D. and Pedroni, P. (2008). Infrastructure, Long-Run Economic Growth and Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels. The Manchester School, 76 (2), 504-527.
  • Clos, J. (2016). Urbanization Is A Tool For Development. Africa Renewal, April 2016, 30 (1), https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2016/urbanization-tool-development.
  • Dodo, M. (2016). Understanding New Turkey-Africa Relations: Rationale and Challenges. Journal of Alternative Perspectives in the Social Sciences, 7 (4), 612-642.
  • Dodaro, S. (1993). Comparative Advantage, Trade and Growth: Export-Led Growth Revisited. Journal of World Development, 19 (9), 1153-1165.
  • Dimitrescu, E. I. and Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29 (4), 1450–1460.
  • Ee C. Y. (2015), Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 35 (2016), 232 – 240.
  • Edo, S., Osadolor, N. E. and Dading I. F. (2019). Rowing External Debt And Declining Export: The Concurrent Impediments In Economic Growth Of Subsaharan African Countries. Article In Press, International Economics.
  • Edoho, F. (2011). Globalization and Marginalization of Africa: Contextualization of China-Africa Relations. Africa Today, 58 (1), 103-124.
  • Elumelu, T. (2009). The Global Economic Crisis And Africa, The Royal Institute of International Affairs The World Today. Catham House, 65 (5), 24-25.
  • Emirmahmutoğlu, F. and Köse, N. (2011). Testing For Granger Causality In Heterogeneous Mixed Panels. Economic Modelling, 28 (3), 870–876.
  • Ezenwe, U. (1982). Trade and Growth in West Africa in the 1980’s. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 20 (2), 305-322.
  • Fioramonti, L. (2014). Africa Rising? Think Again. Perspectives: Political Analyses and Commentary, 1 February 2014, 6-9.
  • Fosu, A. K. (1990). Exports and Economic Growth: The African Case. World Development, 18 (6), 831-835.
  • Furuoka, F. (2016). A New Approach to Testing Unemployment Hysteresis. Empirical Economics, doi:10.1007/s00181-016-1164-7.
  • Gadzala, A. (2018). 3D Printing: Shaping Africa’s Future, Atlantic Council African Center. April 2018, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/3D_Printing_Africa_WEB.pdf.
  • Giles, J. A. and Williams, C. (2000). Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-causality Results. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9 (3), 261–337.
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37 (3), 424-438.
  • Greenaway, D. and Sapsford, D. (1994). Export, growth, and liberalisation: an evaluation. Journal of Policy Model, 16 (2), 165–186.
  • Grossman, G. M. and Helpman, E. (1991). Trade, Innovation, and Growth in the Global Economy. American Economic Review, 80 (2), 86-99.
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  • MFA-Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2016). Turkey-African Relations, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkey-africa-relations.en.mfa.
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  • Moschos, D. (1989). Export Expansion, Growth And The Level Of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Development Economics, 30 (1), 93- 102.
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  • Moon, B. E. (1997). Exports, Outward-oriented Development, and Economic Growth, OOD.205, 30 September 1997. https://www.lehigh.edu/~bm05/research/OOD.205.htm.
  • Narayan, P. K., S. Narayan, B. S. Prasad, and A. Prasad. 2007. Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji. Journal of Economic Studies, 34: 341–351.
  • Narayan, P. K. and Smyth, R. (2009). Multivariate Granger Causality Between Electricity Consumption, Exports and Gdp: Evidence From a Panel of Middle Eastern Countries. Energy Policy, 37 (1), 229–236.
  • Ndoricimpa, A. (2014). Heterogeneous Panel Causality Between Exports And Growth In COMESA Countries. Journal of Developing Areas, 48(4), 349-361.
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Toplam 103 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Alper Yılmaz 0000-0002-1253-7097

Proje Numarası -
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 60

Kaynak Göster

APA Yılmaz, A. (2020). Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(60), 894-919. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.682442
AMA Yılmaz A. Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. Ekim 2020;15(60):894-919. doi:10.19168/jyasar.682442
Chicago Yılmaz, Alper. “Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15, sy. 60 (Ekim 2020): 894-919. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.682442.
EndNote Yılmaz A (01 Ekim 2020) Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15 60 894–919.
IEEE A. Yılmaz, “Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 15, sy. 60, ss. 894–919, 2020, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.682442.
ISNAD Yılmaz, Alper. “Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15/60 (Ekim 2020), 894-919. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.682442.
JAMA Yılmaz A. Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2020;15:894–919.
MLA Yılmaz, Alper. “Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 15, sy. 60, 2020, ss. 894-19, doi:10.19168/jyasar.682442.
Vancouver Yılmaz A. Turkey-African Trade Relationship; New Insights From Panel Causality Analysis. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2020;15(60):894-919.
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