Türkiye’de Demiryolu Taşımacılığı ve Altyapısının Demografik Etkileri

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 4, 1203 - 1218, 25.12.2021

Mehmet Aldonat Beyzatlar

https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.974815

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de demiryolu taşımacılığı ve altyapısının demografik etkilerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler, demiryolu taşımacılığı olarak demiryolları ile taşınan yolcu ve yük hareketliliği, demiryolu altyapısı olarak demiryolu ağının uzunluğu ve demografik ölçü olarak ise nüfus yoğunluğu ve kentleşmedir. Yöntem olarak dinamik bağlantılılık yaklaşımı, 1950 ile 2019 yılları arasındaki örneklem dönem için Türkiye'de demiryolları ve demografi arasındaki bağlantıyı ortaya çıkarmak için kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntem, önemli bir farklılık ve avantaj olarak da görülebilecek şekilde tüm değişkenler arasındaki etkileşimi zaman boyutunu da incelemek suretiyle zenginleştirerek ikili ve bütünleşik yönsel parametreleri elde etmek için kullanılmıştır. Bu nedenle, demiryolları ve demografi arasındaki etkileşimin belirlenmesine farklı bir bakış açısı kazandırılması literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlayabilir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, demiryolu yolcu taşımacılığı dışındaki tüm değişkenlerin net aktarıcı olduğu bulunmuştur. Her iki demografik ölçümün (nüfus yoğunluğu ve kentleşme), net ve ikili bağlantılılık parametreleri dikkate alındığında en güçlü aktarıcı oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Kentleşme ve nüfus yoğunluğu artışı, karşılıklı olarak demiryollarının gelişimiyle dinamik ve geçişli bir süreç içerisinde etkileşim halindedir. Demiryollarının Türkiye'deki demografi ile tarihsel perspektifte yoğun bir ilişkisi olduğu konvansiyonel olmayan ve sürecin gerekliliklerine uygun bir yöntemle doğrulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demiryolu taşımacılığı, demiryolu altyapısı, demografi, bağlantılılık, Türkiye

Demographic Effects of Railway Transportation and Infrastructure in Turkey

Öz

This study aims to explore the demographic effects of railway transportation and infrastructure in Turkey. Variables used in this study comprise freight and passenger movement with railways as railway transportation, the length of the railway network as railway infrastructure, and population density and urbanization as the demographic measure. The dynamic connectedness approach is used as the methodology of this study to sort out the linkage between railways and demography in Turkey for the sample period between 1950 and 2019. This method is useful to obtain pairwise and combined directional parameters by providing a continuous conduction within all variables through the time dimension. Thus, a variant perspective to the determination of the interaction between railways and demography might bring an important contribution to the literature. According to the empirical results, all variables are found net transmitter except railway passenger transportation. Both demographic measures are found the strongest transmitters considering net and pairwise connectedness parameters. Therefore, urbanization and population density increase can be attributed to the coming of the railways, and vice versa, in a dynamic and transitive progress. It has been confirmed by an unconventional method that railways have an intense relationship with the demography in Turkey in the historical perspective.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Railway transportation, railway infrastructure, demography, connectedness, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Abdülhamid, S. (1999). Siyasi Hatıratım. Dergah Yayınları.
• Allen, K., & MaClennan, M.C. (1970). Regional Problems and Policies in Italy and France. Sage.
• Antonakakis, N., & Gabauer, D. (2017). Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR. MPRA Paper, 78282.
• Aschauer, D.A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23: 177-200.
• Atack, J., Bateman, F., Haines, M., ve Margo, R.A. (2009). Did Railroads Induce or Follow Economic Growth? Urbanization and Population Growth in the American Midwest, 1850-60. NBER Working Paper, 14640.
• Boarnet, M.G., & Haughwout, A. (2000). Do highways matter? Evidence and policy implications of highways' influence on metropolitan development. Urban and Regional Planning and Economics, 5(3): 24-50.
• Bohm, R.A. and Patterson, D.A. (1971). Interstate highways and the growth and distribution of population. American Statistical Association, 4(6): 56-71.
• Bougheas, S., Demetriades, P.O., Theofanis, P., & Mamuneas, T.P. (2000). Infrastructure, Specialization, and Economic Growth. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 33(2): 506-522.
• Briggs, R. (1981). The interstate highway system and development in nonmetropolitan areas. Transportation Research Record, 812: 9-12.
• Carlino, G.A., & Mills, E.S. (1987). The Determinants of County Growth. Journal of Regional Science, 27(1): 39-54.
• Cervero, R., & Hansen, M. (2002). Induced travel demand and induced road investment: A simultaneous-equation analysis. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36(3): 469-490.
• Chi, G. (2010). The Impacts of Highway Expansion on Population Change: An Integrated Spatial Approach. Rural Sociology, 75(1): 58-89.
• Chi, G., Voss, P.R., & Deller, S.C. (2006). Rethinking highway effects on population. Public Works Management and Policy, 11(1): 18-32.
• Crane, L.M., & Leatham, D.J. (1990). The distributed lag between transportation expenditures and rural income and employment. American Agricultural Economics Association, 3(6): 345-376.
• Diebold, F. X., & Yılmaz, K. (2009). Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets. The Economic Journal, 119(534): 158-171.
• Diebold, F.X., & Yilmaz, K. (2012). Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1): 57-66.
• Doeksen, G.A. (1990). The role of extension concerning infrastructure issues in the 90s. American Agricultural Economics Association, 4(2): 213-237.
• Earl, E.M. (1966). Turkey, The Great Powers and The Bagdad Railway, A study in Imperialism. Russell and Russell.
• Eldem, V. (1970). Osmanlı İmparatorluğunun İktisadi Şartları Hakkında Bir Tetkik. İş Bankası Yayınları.
• Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J., & Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4): 813-836.
• Eyerly, R.W., Twark, R.W., & Downing, R.H. (1987). Interstate highway system: Reshaping the non-urban areas of Pennsylvania. Transportation Research Record, 1125: 1-14.
• Faroqui, S., McGowan, B., Quataert, D., & Pamuk, S. (1997). Economic and Social History of the Ottoman Empire Vol 2: 1600-1914. Cambridge University Press.
• Fuguitt, G.V., & Beale, C.L. (1976). Population changes in nonmetropolitan cities and towns. Agricultural Economic Research Service, 6(2), 42-64.
• Fuguitt, G.V., & Brown, D. (1990). Residential preferences and population redistribution. Demography, 27(4): 589-600.
• Gaegler, A.M., James, W.M., & Weiner, P. (1979). Dynamic Social and Economic Effects of the Connecticut Turnpike. Transportation Research Record, 716: 28-32.
• Gamble, H.B., Raphael, D.L., & Sauerlender, D.H. (1966). Direct and indirect economic impacts of highway interchange development. Highway Research Record, 149: 42-55.
• Gerardin, B. (1991). Investment in transport infrastructure and regional development. Infrastructure and Regional Development, 4(1): 52-60.
• Gramlich, E.M. (1994). Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay. Journal of Economic Literature, 32: 1176-1196.
• Hilewick, C.L., Deak, E., & Heinze, E. (1980). A Simulation of Communications and Transportation Investments. Growth and Change, (11)3: 26-38.
• Hobbs, D.J., & Campbell, R.R. (1967). Traffic flow and population change. Business and Government Review, 8(3): 5-11.
• Humphrey, C.R. (1980). The promotion of growth in small urban places and its impact on population change. Social Science Quarterly, 61: 581-594.
• Kanwit, E.L., & Todd, T.R. (1961). Recent population trends and their highway implications. Highway Research Board Proceedings, 40: 1-34.
• Lakshmanan, T.R. (2007). The Wider Economic Benefits of Transportation: An Overview. OECD International Transport Forum, Joint Transportation Research Centre Discussion Paper, 8(12).
• Levinson, D. (2008). Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London. Journal of Economic Geography, 8: 55–77.
• Lichter, D.T., & Fuguitt, G.V. (1980). Demographic response to transportation innovation: The case of the interstate highway. Social Forces, 59(2): 492-512.
• McHugh, R.J., & Wilkinson, J.T. (1988). A Random Effects Approach to Substate Growth Models: A Comment on the Determinants of County Growth. Journal of Regional Science, 28(2): 271-273.
• Moon, H.E. (1988). Interstate highway interchanges as instigators of nonmetropolitan development. Transportation Research Record, 1125: 8-14.
• Munnell, A.H. (1990). Why Has Productivity Declined? Productivity and Public Investment. New England Economic Review, 1: 3-22.
• Robinson Jr., G.R., ve Kapo, K.E. (2004). A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using Regional transportation network and population density features. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 42: 351–365.
• Schafer, V., & Victor, D.G. (2000). The future mobility of the world population. Transportation Research Part A, 34:171-205.
• Snow, N.B. (2010). Changes in Transportation Infrastructure and Commuting Patterns in U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 1960-2000. American Economic Association, 345: 32-58.
• Taaffe, E.J., Morrill, R.L., & Gould, P.R. (1963). Transport Expansion in Underdeveloped Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Geographical Review, 53(4): 503-529.
• Talbot, E. (1981). Steam in Turkey. Continental Railways Circle.
• Thiel, F.I. (1962). Social effects of modern highway transportation. Highway Research Board Bulletin, 327: 1-20.
• Url 1: https://www.tcdd.gov.tr/kurumsal/istatistikler, Erişim Tarihi: 16.07.2021.
• Url 2: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/images/tcdd-demiryolu-haritasi.jpg, Erişim Tarihi: 24.07.2021.
• Üstün, S. (1997). Turkey and the Marshall Plan: Strive for Aid [Master’s Thesis, University College London].
• Voss, P.R., & Chi, G. (2006). Highways and population change. Rural Sociology, 71(1): 33-58.
• Wang, K.S. (1987). A longitudinal examination of the effect of the interstate highway system on the economic and demographic growth within nonmetropolitan counties in the state of Georgia, 1960-1980 [Doctoral Thesis, University of Georgia].
• William, G.A. (1958). Economic effects of Camp Creek Road improvement. College Station: Texas A and M University and Texas Transportation Institute.
• Wisenbaker, V.B. (1973). The effects of the interstate highway system on the population of nonmetropolitan counties in the South [Doctoral Thesis, University of Georgia].
• Zahavi, Y. (1976). The effects of Transportation Systems on the Spatial Distributions of Population and Jobs. Operations Research Society and The Institute of Management Science, 3(5): 197-216.
• Zhou, J., Yang, L., Xu, Y., & Liu, C. (2007). The economic performance of transportation infrastructure: an empirical study on the recent development of China. World Transactions on Engineering and Technology Education UICEE, 6(1): 193-197.