Mersin Körfezindeki Liman ve Kıyı Tesislerinde Pandeminin Etkisi ve İstatistiksel Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 4, 1707 - 1723, 15.12.2022

Mehmet Karaoğlu , Aytekin Sarıca , Gökhan Kara

https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1129552

Öz

2020 yılı başında başlayan pandeminin en büyük etkisi lojistik ve tedarik zincirleri üzerinde görülmüştür. Lojistik ve tedarik zincirinin en önemli düğüm noktalarından biri limanlardır. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Akdeniz bölgesinde bulunan Mersin Uluslararası Limanı ve diğer kıyı liman tesisleri 2013-2021 yılları arasındaki veriler kapsamında değerlendirilmiştir. Mersin limanı için regresyon analizi yöntemi kullanılarak pandemi dönemi olan 2020-2021 yılları için yük talep tahmini yapılmıştır. 2020-2021 yılları için yapılan yük talep tahminleri gerçekleşen rakamlarla karşılaştırılarak pandeminin etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Regresyon analizinde limana gelen gemi sayısı (Vessel-V) bağımsız değişken, limanda yıllık elleçlenen konteyner miktarı (TEU 20 Feet’lik Konteyner) ve yıllık elleçlenen toplam yük miktarı (MT- Metrik Ton) bağımlı değişkenler olarak belirlenmiştir. 2020-2021 yılları için yapılan tahmin değerleri ile gerçekleşen veriler karşılaştırılarak pandeminin Mersin Uluslararası Limanı üzerindeki etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Mersin Körfezi'ndeki liman ve kıyı tesisleri V, MT ve TEU parametreleri üzerinden değerlendirildiğinde, pandemi sürecinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir. Aksine, Mersin limanındaki yük hareketliliğinin arttığı, özellikle daha büyük gemilerin yanaşması ile limana gelen gemi sayısının düştüğü fakat gelen gemilerin tonajları arttığı için daha fazla konteyner (TEU) ve toplam yük elleçlendiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pandemi, Mersin Limanı, Kıyı Tesisleri, İstatiksel Analiz, Basit Doğrusal Regresyon Analizi

The Effect and Statistical Analysis Of The Pandemic in The Port and Coastal Facilities in The Bay of Mersin

Öz

The biggest impact of the pandemic, which started at the beginning of 2020, was seen on logistics and supply chains. Ports are one of the most important nodes of the logistics and supply chain. In this study, Mersin International Port and other coastal port facilities which are in the East-Mediterranean were evaluated on a scope of data between 2013 and 2021. By using the regression analysis method for Mersin port, freight demand forecasts were made for the pandemic period 2020-2021. The impact of the pandemic was evaluated by comparing the freight demand forecasts made for the years 2020-2021 with the actual figures. In the regression analysis, the number of ships arriving at the port (V) was determined as the independent variable, the annual container (TEU - Twenty Equivalent Container Unit) handled at the port and the annual total cargo handled (MT – Metric Tonnes) were determined as the dependent variables. The impact of the pandemic on Mersin International Port was evaluated by comparing the estimated values for the years 2020-2021 with the actual data. As a result, when the port and coastal facilities in Mersin Bay were evaluated over V, MT and TEU parameters, it showed that the pandemic process did not have a statistically significant effect. On the contrary, it has been observed that the freight mobility in Mersin port has increased, the number of ships arriving at the port has decreased especially with the berthing of larger ships, but more TEU and total cargo have been handled as the tonnage of the incoming ships has increased.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pandemic, Mersin Port, Coastal Facilities, Statistical Analysis, Basic Lineer Regression Analysis

Kaynakça

• Kirkwood, B.R, Sterne JAC. (2003). Regression Modelling. Medical Statistics. Blackwell Science. Australia, 315-342.
• Pagano M, Gauvreau K. (1993). Simple Linear Regression. Principles of Biostatistics. Duxbury Press, USA, 379-424.
• Yıldız, Ümit. (2020). Ekonometrinin Temelleri. Eskişehir Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayınları. Eskişehir. E-ISBN 978-975-06-3723-0, s. 23-38.S
• Bottasso, A., Conti, M., Ferrari, C., Merk, O., & Tei, A. (2013). The impact of port throughput on local employment: Evidence from a panel of European regions. Transport Policy, (27), 32–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.12.001
• Esmer, S., & Duru, O. (2017). Port governance in Turkey: The age of the global terminal operators. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 22, 214–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2016.12.001
• Ferrari, C., Percoco, M., & Tedeschi, A. (2010). Ports and local development: Evidence from Italy. International Journal of Transport Economics, 37(1), 9–30. https://doi.org/10.1400/133646
• Lee, J. Y., Hyun, K., & Jin, L. (2015). China’s New Silk Road: Policies and Implications. Journal of International Logistics and Trade, 13(2), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.24006/jilt.2015.13.2.55
• İncaz, S and KARAKOPRU, U. O. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Ambarlı Port in Container Handling and a Forecasting Analysis for Future, Kent Akademisi, Volume 14, Issue 4, Pages 899-910.
• McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). The global macroeconomic impacts of covid-19: Seven scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 2–30. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00796
• Menhat, M., Mohd Zaideen, I. M., Yusuf, Y., Salleh, N. H. M., Zamri, M. A., & Jeevan, J. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 pandemic: A review on maritime sectors in Malaysia. Ocean and Coastal Management, 209 (March), 105638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105638
• Mudronja, G., Jugović, A., & Škalamera-Alilović, D. (2020). Seaports and economic growth: Panel data analysis of eu port regions. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(12), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121017
• Nguyen, L. C., & Notteboom, T. (2019). The relations between dry port characteristics and regional port-hinterland settings: findings for a global sample of dry ports. Maritime Policy and Management, 46(1), 24–42. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2018.1448478
• Roso, V., Woxenius, J., & Lumsden, K. (2009). The dry port concept: connecting container seaports with the hinterland. Journal of Transport Geography, 17(5), 338–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2008.10.008
• Ruan, X., Bandara, Y. M., Lee, J. Y., Lee, P. T. W., & Chhetri, P. (2019). Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios. Maritime Policy and Management, 46(8), 905–919. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2019.1594425
• Xu, L., Shi, J., Chen, J., & Li, L. (2021). Estimating the effect of COVID-19 epidemic on shipping trade: An empirical analysis using panel data. Marine Policy, 133 (August). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104768
• Mersin Chamber of Shipping (MDTO) Statistics, 2022. https://mdto.org.tr/tr/istatistikler. Date of Access:25.05.2022.
• Dekker, S. (2005). Port investment: Towards an integrated planning of port capacity. http://www.narcis.nl/publication/RecordID/oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:7224341e-cd4d-4d4e-a5ba-f262ee089305. Date of Access: 15.05.2022
• Oğuz, S.C, (2021). COVID-19 Salgınının Dünya Ticareti ve Deniz Taşımacılığına Etkileri, https://kalkinmaguncesi.izka.org.tr/index.php/2021/04/12/covid-19-salgininin-dunya-ticareti-ve-deniz-tasimaciligina-etkileri/, 12 Nisan 2021, Date of Access: 25.05.2022.
• Republic of Turkey Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (UAB) General Directorate of Maritime Statistics, 2022. https://denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr/. Date of Access:25.05.2022.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), (2020). Review of Maritime Transport 2020, Date of Access: 25.05.2022.
• United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UNCTAD/WIR/(2020). https://unctad.org/webflyer/world-investment-report-2020. Date of Access: 14.04.2022