Optimal Savunma Harcaması Var mıdır? Türkiye Üzerinde Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2019, , 135 - 160, 07.05.2019

Rıza Bayrak

https://doi.org/10.17134/khosbd.561221

Cited By: 5

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı; savunma harcamaları ile
büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını, optimal
savunma harcaması oranın ne olduğunu ve Türkiye’nin 1990-2017 yılları
arasındaki savunma harcamalarının optimal olup olmadığını analiz etmektir.
Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik büyüme oranı, bağımsız değişkenler
olarak da yıllık savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı ile yıllık
işsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’ye ait 1990-2017 dönemin
verileri zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu verilerden
milli gelir büyüme oranı ile işsizlik verileri Dünya Bankası veri tabanından,
savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı da SIPRI veri tabanından
alınmıştır. Çalışma neticesinde; Türkiye’de Armey Eğrisi’nin geçerli olduğu,
bir başka ifadeyle savunma harcamaları ile büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde
bir ilişkinin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye’de savunma harcamalarının milli
gelir içindeki optimal değeri ise %2,5 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin
2010 yılı sonrası yıllık savunma harcamaları göz önüne alındığında; yapılan harcamaların %2,5’lik oranın altında olduğu görülmektedir.
Buradan hareketle, savunma harcamalarının %2,5 oranına kadar artırılmasıyla,
milli gelirin de artırılabileceğini ifade etmek mümkündür. Savunma sanayinin
imalat sanayi içinde lokomotif pozisyonu göz önüne alındığında; yapılan bu
değerlendirme gerek Kaldor’un birinci yasasıyla gerekse alanda savunma
harcamalarının büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü etkisini gözlemleyen çalışmalarla
tutarlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma Harcaması, İktisadi Büyüme, Armey Eğrisi, Zaman Serisi Analizi (FMOLS Method)

Does the Optimal Size of Defense Expenditure Exist? An Empirical Study on Turkey

Öz

The purpose of this study was to analyze whether an “inverted U” shape
relationship between economic growth and defense expenditure or not, what the
optimal ratio of defense expenditure for Turkey is, and whether Turkey’s
defense expenditure in the period of 1990-2017 was optimal. The dependent
variable of the study was the ratio of yearly economic growth, and independent
variables were the ratio of defense expenditure in GDP and yearly unemployment
rate respectively. Data which covered 1990-2017 period regarding Turkey was
analyzed by using Time Series Analysis with FMOLS method. Economic growth and
unemployment series were acquired from the Worldbank, while defense expenditure
was from SIPRI data bank. According to the results; we have concluded that there
is an “inverted U” shape the relationship between economic growth and defense
expenditure. In other words, Armey Curve exists for Turkey. Also, we have
observed the ratio of defense expenditure as 2.5% of the GDP. The defense
expenditure of Turkey from 2010 is under this value of 2.5%. Considering this
point; it can be put forward that Turkey may increase its defense expenditure
up to 2.5% of the GDP to provide economic growth. Taking into account of the
leading position and also the importance of the defense industry in the
manufacturing industry, this evaluation is supported not only with the first
law of Kaldor but also studies which propose that defense expenditure has
positive effects on the economic growth as well.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Defense Expenditure, Armey Curve, Time Series Analysis (FMOLS Method)

Kaynakça

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