Optimal Savunma Harcaması Var mıdır? Türkiye Üzerinde Ampirik Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1, 135 - 160, 07.05.2019

Rıza Bayrak

https://doi.org/10.17134/khosbd.561221

Cited By: 5

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı; savunma harcamaları ile
büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını, optimal
savunma harcaması oranın ne olduğunu ve Türkiye’nin 1990-2017 yılları
arasındaki savunma harcamalarının optimal olup olmadığını analiz etmektir.
Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik büyüme oranı, bağımsız değişkenler
olarak da yıllık savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı ile yıllık
işsizlik oranları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye’ye ait 1990-2017 dönemin
verileri zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu verilerden
milli gelir büyüme oranı ile işsizlik verileri Dünya Bankası veri tabanından,
savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içindeki oranı da SIPRI veri tabanından
alınmıştır. Çalışma neticesinde; Türkiye’de Armey Eğrisi’nin geçerli olduğu,
bir başka ifadeyle savunma harcamaları ile büyüme arasında “ters U” şeklinde
bir ilişkinin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye’de savunma harcamalarının milli
gelir içindeki optimal değeri ise %2,5 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin
2010 yılı sonrası yıllık savunma harcamaları göz önüne alındığında; yapılan harcamaların %2,5’lik oranın altında olduğu görülmektedir.
Buradan hareketle, savunma harcamalarının %2,5 oranına kadar artırılmasıyla,
milli gelirin de artırılabileceğini ifade etmek mümkündür. Savunma sanayinin
imalat sanayi içinde lokomotif pozisyonu göz önüne alındığında; yapılan bu
değerlendirme gerek Kaldor’un birinci yasasıyla gerekse alanda savunma
harcamalarının büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü etkisini gözlemleyen çalışmalarla
tutarlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma Harcaması, İktisadi Büyüme, Armey Eğrisi, Zaman Serisi Analizi (FMOLS Method)

Does the Optimal Size of Defense Expenditure Exist? An Empirical Study on Turkey

Öz

The purpose of this study was to analyze whether an “inverted U” shape
relationship between economic growth and defense expenditure or not, what the
optimal ratio of defense expenditure for Turkey is, and whether Turkey’s
defense expenditure in the period of 1990-2017 was optimal. The dependent
variable of the study was the ratio of yearly economic growth, and independent
variables were the ratio of defense expenditure in GDP and yearly unemployment
rate respectively. Data which covered 1990-2017 period regarding Turkey was
analyzed by using Time Series Analysis with FMOLS method. Economic growth and
unemployment series were acquired from the Worldbank, while defense expenditure
was from SIPRI data bank. According to the results; we have concluded that there
is an “inverted U” shape the relationship between economic growth and defense
expenditure. In other words, Armey Curve exists for Turkey. Also, we have
observed the ratio of defense expenditure as 2.5% of the GDP. The defense
expenditure of Turkey from 2010 is under this value of 2.5%. Considering this
point; it can be put forward that Turkey may increase its defense expenditure
up to 2.5% of the GDP to provide economic growth. Taking into account of the
leading position and also the importance of the defense industry in the
manufacturing industry, this evaluation is supported not only with the first
law of Kaldor but also studies which propose that defense expenditure has
positive effects on the economic growth as well.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Defense Expenditure, Armey Curve, Time Series Analysis (FMOLS Method)

Kaynakça

• References
• Books
• Armey, D. (1995). The Freedom Revolution. Washington: Regnery Publishing. Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Lexington Books: Lexington. Ersoy, A. (2008). History of Economic Theories and Thoughts, Ankara: Nobel Publication. Greene, W. H. (1997). Econometric Analysis. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey. Gujarati, D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. New York: The McGraw-Hill. Harris, R.I.D. (1995). Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling. Great Britain: Harvester Wheatsheaf. Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth in the United Kingdom: An Inaugural Lecture, London: Cambridge University Press. Looney, R. (1994). The Economics of Third World Defense Expenditures. London: Jai Pres. Minsky, H.P. (1975). John Maynard Keynes., New York: Columbia University Publications. Screpanti, E., Zamagni, S. (1993). An Outline of the History of Economic Thought, Oxford: Clarendon Publication. Uluatam, Ö. (1997). Public Finance. Ankara: Imaj Publication.
• Articles
• Altunc, Ö. ve Aydın, C. (2013). The Relationship Between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Groth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 92 (2013), 66-75. Antonakis, N. (1999). Guns versus Butter: A multisectoral Approach to Military Expenditure and Growth with Evidence from Greece, 1960-1993, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(4), 501-520. Barro, R.J. (1989). A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government, NBER Working Paper No: 2855. Bekmez, S., Destek, M.A. (2015). Crowding-out Effect of Defense Expenditure: Panel Data Analysis, Research Journal of Politics, Economics, and Management, 3(2), 91-110. Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271–280. Brempong, K. G. (1989). Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Econometric Investigation. Journal of Peace Research, 26(1), 79-90. Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P., Bjerkholt, O. (1984). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373. Chao, J.C.P., Grubel, H. (1998). Optimal Levels of Spending and Taxation in Canada, How to use the fiscal surplus. Vancouver: Fraser Institute 53-68. Chowdhury, A.R. (1991). A Causal Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35(1), 80-97. Deger, S., Smith, R. (1983). Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27(2), 335-353. Dunne, P., Nikolaidoi, E., Vougas, D. (2001). Defense spending and economic growth: a causal analysis for Greece and Turkey, Defense and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26. Facchini, F. ve Melki, M. (2011). Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in France (1871-2008): An Explanation by The State Market Failures, CES Working Papers, ISSN: 1955-611X, Paris, 1-38. Fatah, A.A., Salihoğlu, S. (2016). A Comparative Study of the Impact of Defense Expenditures on Economic Growth in Indonesia and Turkey, The Journal of Defense Sciences, 15(1), 55-77. Friedman, M. (1997). If the Only US were as Free as Hong Kong, Wall Street Journal, Jully 8. Gökbunar, R., Yanıkkaya, H. (2004). Factors that Determines Defense Expenditure and Effects Economic Growth. Ankara University SBF Journal, 59(1), 159-179. Heo, U., Derouen, J.K. (1998). Military Expenditures, Technological Change, and Economic Growth in the East Asian NICs, The Journal of Politics, 60(3), 830-846. Huang, C., Mintz, A. (1990). Ridge Regression Analysis of the Defence-Growth Tradeoff in the United States, Defense Economics, 2(1), 19-37. Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration- with Applications to The Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169–210. Kaldor, N. (1968). Productivity and Growth in Manufacturing Industry: a reply, Economica, 35, 385-391. Knight, M., Loayaza, N., Villanueva, D. (1996). The peace dividend: Military spending cuts and economic growth International, Monetary Fund Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, 43(1), 1-37. Kusi, N.K. (1994). Economic Growth and Defense Spending in Developing Countries: A Causal Analysis, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(1), 152-159. Pedroni, P. (2001). Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, p.727-731. Pevcin, P. (2004). Economic Output and Optimal Size of Government, Economic and Business Review, 6(3), 213-227. Rahn, R. ve Fox, H. (1996). What is the Optimum Size of Government? Vernon K. Kriebel Foundation. Rufael, Y. W. (2001). Causality between Defence Spending and Economic Growth: The case of mainland China: a comment, Journal of Economic Studies, 28 (3), 227-230. Scully, G. (1994). What is the Optimum Size Size of Government? National Centre for Policy Analysis Policy Report No: 188, Policy Report No: 316. Scully, G. (2008). Optimal Taxation, Economic Growth and Income Equality in the United States, National Center for Policy Analysis Policy Report No: 316. Sezgin, S. (2000). Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in Turkey and Greece: A Cointegratıon Analysis, Muğla University SBE Journal, 1(1), 191-202. Tüğen, K. (1989), Developments and Economic Impact of Defense Spending in the World and Turkey, Journal of Banking and Economic Interpretations, Yıl:26, Sayı:12, 47-60. Vedder, R. ve Gallaway, L. (1998). Government Size and Economic Growth, Joint Economic Committee. Washington D.C., 1-15. Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S., Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, Defense and Peace Economics, 16 (4), 283-295. Wagner, A. (1883). Three Extracts on Public Finance, Musgrave, A.R., Peacock, A.T., (ed.) (1967), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, 1-27. Ward, D.M., Davis, R.D., Panubartı, M., Rajmarda, S., Cochran, M. (1991). The country survey I: military spending in India, Defense Economics, 3(1), 41–63.
• Internet Sources
• Bayraklı, E. (2014). “NATO Galler Summit: A New Cold War or Cooperation with Russia”. SETA Perspective, 70, 1-7. http://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf /20140916180230_nato% E2%80 %99nun-gallery-zirvesi-pdf.pdf. Accessed Date: 06.06.2018. Bingöl, O. ve Varlık, A.B. (2014). “Galler Summit of NATO”, Central Strategy Institute Report No:001, http://merkezstrateji.com/assets/media/01-140909-rp-natonun-galler-zirvesi-s3_ n2.pdf. Accessed Date: 06.04.2018. Chobanov, D. (2009). “What is The Optimum Size of Government?”. Institute for Market Economics, 1-26. Retrieved from: http://ime.bg/uploads /OptimalSizeOfGovernment.pdf. Accessed: 03.03.2017 Dunne, J.P., Tian, N. (2013). “Military Spending, Conflict And Economic Growth in Africa”, ESSA Conference, 1-27. file:///C:/Users/RIZA%20 BAYRAK/Desktop/Downloads/essay 2013_2506.pdf. Accessed Date: 12.07.2018. Kök, R., Şimşek, N. (2006). Intra-industry Foreign Trade, Patents, and International Technological Expansions. http://www.deu.edu.tr/userweb/ recep.kok/dosyalar/eidtpatent yayilma.pdf. Accessed Date: 23.03.2018 Kök, R., İspir, M. S., Arı, A.A. (2010). An Essay on the Necessity of the Mechanism of Resource Transfer from Rich Countries to Underdeveloped Countries and on the Universal Distribution Parameter, http://kisi.deu.edu.tr/recep.kok/Zengin_ispir.pdf, Accessed Date: 01.09.2018 Mavrov, H. (2007). “The Size of Government Expenditure and the Rate of Economic Growth in Bulgaria”. Economic Alternatives, 1, 53-63. https:// www.unwe.bg/uploads/Alternatives/A06_01.2007.pdf. Accessed Date: 01.03.2018 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute-(SIPRI) (2018). Sipri Military Expenditure Database, https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex, Accessed: 05.04.2018 World Bank-(WB). (2018). Indicator, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY. GNS.ICTR.ZS? end=2014 &start=2013. Accessed Date: 01.03.2018