NATO Ülkelerinin Savunma Harcama Modellerine Göre Sınıflandırılması: Denetimsiz Bir Kümeleme Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 41, 261 - 280, 09.05.2022

Mehmet Özcan

https://doi.org/10.17134/khosbd.1101724

Öz

Son yıllarda savunma harcamaları çalışmalarına artan bir ilgi olmasına rağmen, literatürde savunma harcamalarının kompozisyonunun ampirik analizine gerekli ilgi gösterilmemiştir. Ancak sınırlı sayıda ampirik olmayan çalışma, bir ülkenin askerî bütçesinin bileşimini anlamanın, ekonomik durumu ve gelecekteki savunma stratejisi politika seçimleri hakkında dikkate değer bilgiler ortaya koyduğunu belirtmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmanın amacı, NATO müttefiki ülkeler arasındaki savunma bütçesi tahsisindeki temel farklılıkları daha iyi anlamaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için K-Means kümeleme yaklaşımı kullanılmış ve NATO’nun dört ana savunma harcaması kategorisinden oluşan veri seti ile üç ana grup bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, sonuçların güvenilirliği hiyerarşik kümeleme ve K-Medoids yöntemleri gibi ek analizlerle kanıtlanmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, NATO ülkelerinin teçhizat yoğun harcamalar kümesi, personel yoğun harcamalar kümesi ve dengeli harcamalar kümesi olarak adlandırılabilecek üç gruba ayrılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma Harcamaları, Kümeleme Analizi, NATO, Denetimsiz Kümeleme, Askerî Bütçe

Classification of the NATO Countries with Respect to Defence Spending Patterns: An Unsupervised Clustering Approach

Öz

Although there has been growing interest in defence expenditure studies in recent years, no necessary attention has been paid in literature to empirical analysis of composition of defence expenditure. However, limited number of non-empirical studies state that understanding composition of military budget of a country reveals remarkable insights about its economic condition and defence strategy policy choices in the future. The purpose of this study has been to gain further understanding of basic differences in defence budget allocation between NATO ally counties. To fulfil this aim, K-Means clustering approach is used and three main groups are found with the dataset of NATO that formed by four main defence expenditure categories. Moreover, the reliability of the results has been proven by additional analysis such as hierarchical clustering and K-Medoids methods. Empirical findings state that NATO countries could be categorised into three groups which are named as equipment intense expenditure cluster, personnel intense expenditure cluster, and balanced expenditure cluster.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Defence Expenditure, Clustering Analysis, NATO, Unsupervised Clustering, Military Budget

Kaynakça

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