Examining the Globalization-Economic Complexity-Financial Development Nexus in Turkey

Yıl 2022, , 485 - 499, 29.11.2022

Alper Karasoy

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1164750

Cited By: 2

Öz

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the globalization-financial development-economic complexity link in Turkey for the period 1970-2017.
Design/Methodology: In the first stage of the analysis, a tri-variate model is proposed. In the second stage, cointegration and Granger causality tests that have single Fourier-frequency functions in their testing equations are employed to examine causal links among the employed variables.
Findings: The main findings indicate that (i) globalization and political globalization both indirectly (through financial development) and directly cause economic complexity; (ii) economic globalization indirectly causes economic complexity through financial development; (iii) social globalization and financial development directly cause economic complexity; (iv) bi-directional causality exists between globalization and financial development. These findings reveal that globalization is crucial for economic complexity. Also, ignoring the intermediating and direct roles of financial development in promoting Turkey’s economic complexity can be problematic.
Limitations: This study focuses only on Turkey. Further research can focus on other emerging markets to confirm if similar causalities exist.
Originality/Value: By using cointegration and causality tests that have Fourier-components, this study accounts for the possible effects of structural changes. Additionally, this study considers sub-indices of globalization and their causal links with financial development and economic complexity. Lastly, although financial development-economic complexity link and globalization-economic complexity nexus were separately investigated in some studies, these studies used bi-variate models. This study proposes a tri-variate model to examine cointegration and causalities among these variables.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, Economic Complexity, Financial Development, Causality Analysis, Turkey

Türkiye’deki Küreselleşme-Ekonomik Kompleksite-Finansal Kalkınma İlişkisinin İncelenmesi

Öz

Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki küreselleşme-finansal kalkınma-ekonomik kompleksite ilişkisini 1970-2017 dönemi için incelemektir.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Analizin birinci basamağında, üç değişkenli bir model oluşturulmuştur. Analizin ikinci aşamasında, test denklemlerinde tek Fourier-frekanslı fonksiyonlar barındıran koentegrasyon ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılarak seçilmiş değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir.
Bulgular: Araştırmanın ana bulguları şunlardır: (i) küreselleşme ve politik küreselleşme hem doğrudan hem de dolaylı olarak finansal kalkınma üzerinden ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (ii) ekonomik küreselleşme, finansal kalkınma üzerinden ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (iii) hem sosyal küreselleşme hem de finansal kalkınma doğrudan ekonomik kompleksiteye neden olmaktadır; (iv) küreselleşme ve finansal kalkınma arasında iki yönlü nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgular, küreselleşmenin ekonomik kompleksite için kritik bir öneme sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca finansal kalkınmanın Türkiye’nin ekonomik kompleksitesi üzerindeki doğrudan ve dolaylı etkilerinin göz ardı edilmesi, sorunlar yaratabilir.
Sınırlılıklar: Bu araştırmada sadece Türkiye üzerine odaklanılmıştır. Gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalarda diğer kalkınmakta olan ülkeler incelenerek benzer nedenselliklerin bu ülkelerde de geçerli olup olmadığı değerlendirilebilir.
Özgünlük/Değer: Bu araştırmada yapısal kırılmaların olası etkileri Fourier-bileşenli koentegrasyon ve nedensellik testleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmişlerdir. Ayrıca, bu araştırmada küreselleşmenin alt-indeksleri de dikkate alınarak bu indekslerin finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik kompleksiteyle olan nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Son olarak her ne kadar literatürdeki bazı çalışmalarda finansal kalkınma-ekonomik kompleksite ve küreselleşme-ekonomik kompleksite ilişkileri incelenmiş olsa da bu incelemeler genellikle iki değişkenli modeller üzerinden yapılmıştır. Bu araştırmada üç değişkenli bir model üzerinden eş-bütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Kompleksite, Finansal Kalkınma, Nedensellik Analizi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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