TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 10, 39 - 55, 02.01.2015

Uğur Adıgüzel

https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062

Cited By: 5

Öz

Son yıllarda ekonomik büyüme ile birlikte artan dış ticaret açıkları önemli bir tartışma konusu olarak iktisat literatüründeki yerini almıştır. Konu ile ilgili çalışmalarda açığın oluşmasında farklı değişkenlerin rolünün olduğu söylense de önemli bir çoğunluğun kamu harcamaları üzerinde yoğunlaştığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise 1982Q1-2010Q3 dönemine ait Türkiye ekonomisinde kamu harcamaları ve dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki yapısal kırılma(lar) ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler incelenerek ortaya konulmuştur. Bu amaçla Kwaitkowski, Phillips, Schmidt ve Shin (1992, KPSS) geleneksel birim kök testi, Zivot-Andrews (1992) ve Lee-Strazicich (2003, 2004) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile birlikte Kejriwal (2008) ve Kejriwal-Perron (2009) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2000’li yılların hemen başında yapısal kırılma bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca kırılma öncesi ve sonrası dönemlere ait uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçları göstermektedir ki:1990’lı yıllarda kamu harcamaları dış ticaret açıkları üzerinde etkili iken, 2000 yılı sonrasındaki dönemde etki azalmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış ticaret açıkları, Kamu harcamaları, Zivot-Andrews, Lee-Strazicich , Kejriwal-Perron

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