SERMAYE AKIŞI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: ASİMETRİK ETKİLER

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 154 - 171, 29.04.2019

Seher Gülşah Topuz , Taner Sekmen

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.505959

Cited By: 6

Öz

Bu
çalışma Türkiye için sermaye akışı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkisini farklı sermaye akışı değişkenleri ve güncel ekonometrik yöntemler
kullanarak sorgulamaktadır. Tahminler 1974-2016 yılları arasını kapsayan
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve portföy yatımları verileri ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik
nedensellik testi ve Hatemi-J (2014) asimetrik etki tepki fonksiyonları
kullanılarak yapılmaktadır. Bu yöntemler değişkenlere ait şoklar pozitif ve
negatif olarak ayrıştırıldığında değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin de
farklılaşabileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları
doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişi ve çıkışı değişkenlerinden ekonomik büyümeye
doğru ne pozitif şoklar ne de negatif şoklar için nedensellik olmadığını
göstermektedir. Ancak ekonomik büyümeden doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişi ve
çıkışı değişkenlerine doğru pozitif şoklar için nedensellik ilişkisi tespit
edilemezken negatif şoklar için nedenselliğin varlığı söz konusudur. Dolayısıyla
ekonomik büyümenin doğrudan yabancı yatırım hareketlerinin nedeni olduğu; ancak
bu nedensellik ilişkisinin asimetrik olduğu sonucuna varılmaktadır. Portföy
yatırımlarından ekonomik büyümeye ve ekonomik büyümeden portföy yatırımlarına
her iki şok türü içinde nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sermaye Akışı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Asimetrik Etki-Tepki

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL FLOWS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS

Öz

This study investigates the causal relationship between capital flows
and economic growth for Turkey using different capital flows indicators and
current econometric methods. Estimates were made using foreign direct
investment (FDI) and portfolio investment data covering the years between 1974-2016
for Turkey. In addition, Hatemi-J (2012) causality test and Hatemi-J (2014)
asymmetric impulse and response functions were used empirical analysis. These
methods indicate that the causality relationship between the variables can be
different if the shocks are separated into positive and negative. The findings
of the study show that there is no causality in both positive and negative
shocks from direct foreign investment inflow and outflow variables to economic
growth. While the causality relationship for positive
shocks from economic growth to foreign direct investment input and output
variables cannot be determined, there is a causality for negative shocks. Thus, it is concluded that economic growth is
the cause of foreign direct investments but this relationship is asymmetric. There is no causal relationship from portfolio
investments to economic growth and from economic growth to portfolio
investments in both types of shock.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Capital Flows, Economic Growth, Asymmetric Causality, Asymmetric Impulse and Response

Kaynakça

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