Uluslararası Göçün İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Avrupa Ülkelerine Yönelik Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 2204 - 2217, 20.10.2021

Bekir Gündoğmuş , Musa Bayır

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865460

Cited By: 4

Öz

Avrupa göçmen hareketlerinin yoğun olduğu bir coğrafya olarak dikkat çekmektedir. II. Dünya Savaşı, Berlin Duvarının yıkılışı, Afrika ve Latin Amerika ile olan bağlantıları nedeniyle bölge yoğun bir şekilde göç almıştır. 2000’li yıllardan sonra, özellikle Afganistan, Ortadoğu ve Afrika’da yaşanan savaş, iç çatışma ve politik istikrarsızlıklar göç hareketlerini daha da artırmıştır. Göç hareketlerinin sosyal ve siyasi neticeleri olduğu kadar önemli ekonomik sonuçları da bulunmaktadır. Bunların başında işgücü piyasalarında oluşturduğu dalgalanmalar gelmektedir. Çalışma Avrupa ülkelerinde uluslararası göçün işsizlik oranları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Yöntem olarak panel regresyon analizi tercih edilmektedir. Analizler 27 Avrupa ülkesi için 2000-2017 yılları arasında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları uluslararası göçün işsizlik üzerinde istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Ek olarak, GSYİH, kamu harcamaları, eğitim harcamaları ve ücretlerdeki artış işsizlik oranlarını düşürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Avrupa, İşsizlik, Uluslararası göç, Göçmenler, GSYİH, Panel regresyon analizi

The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis on the European Countries

Öz

Europe attracts attention in terms of geography where immigrant movements are intense. The region received international migrant heavily because of World War II, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and its connections with Africa and Latin America. After the 2000s, the war, civil conflict and political instability in especially Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa increased the migration movements. Migration movements have important social and political consequences as well as economic consequences. The most essential of these is the fluctuations in the labour market. The study aims to empirically investigate the effect of international migration on unemployment rates in European countries. Panel regression analysis is preferred as a method. The analysis performed for 27 European countries and between 2000-2017 years. Empirical analysis results show that international migration does not have a statistically significant effect on unemployment. In addition, increases in GDP, public expenditures, education expenditures and wage rises reduce unemployment rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Europe, Unemployment, International migration, Immigrants, GDP, Panel regression analysis

Kaynakça

• Abadan-Unat, N. (2017). Bitmeyen göç konuk işçilikten ulus-ötesi yurttaşlığa. İsanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
• Adaş, C. G. (2002). Etkin ücret hipotezi, işsizlik ve ücret rijidliği. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 52(1), 103-156.
• Angrist, J., & Kugler, A. (2001). Protective or counter-productive? European labor market institutions and the effect of immigrants on EU natives. NBER Working Paper, No: 8660. https://doi.org/10.3386/w8660
• Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
• Bijak, Jakub (2006). Forecasting international migration: Selected theories, models and methods. CEFMR Working Paper.
• Bonin, H. (2005). Wage and employment effects of immigration to Germany: Evidence from a skill group approach. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 1875.
• Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D., & Rault, C. (2013). Immigration, growth, and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD Countries. Labour, 27(4), 399-420. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12017
• Breunig, R., Deutscher, N., & To, H. T. (2017). The relationship between immigration to Australia and the labour market outcomes of Australian-Born workers. Economic Record, 93(301), 255-276. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12328
• Carrasco, R., Jimeno, J. F., & Ortega, A. C. (2008). The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: Some evidence for Spain. Journal of Population Economics, 21(3), 627-648. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-006-0112-9
• Castles, S., & Miller, M. J. (1993). The age of migration: international population movements in the modern world. Macmillan.
• Castles, S., & Miller, M. J. (2008). Göçler çağı: Modern Dünyada uluslararası göç hareketleri. (Çev. Bal, B. U., & Akbulut, İ.). İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
• Cohen-Goldner, S., & Paserman, M. D. (2004). The dynamic impact of immigration on natives’ labor market outcomes : Evidence from Israel. IZA Discussion Papers, No: 1315.
• Damette, O., & Fromentin, V. (2013). Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: A panel cointegration approach. Applied Economics, 45(16), 2295-2304. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2012.661400
• Docquier, F., Ozden, Ç., & Peri, G. (2016). The labour market effects of immigration and emigration in OECD countries. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 6258. https://doi.org/10.1142/9781
• Douglas, M., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (2014). Uluslararası göç kuramlarının bir değerlendirmesi. (Çev. Dedeoğlu, S., Oskay, B., Özbek, Ç., Sirkeci, İ., & Yüceşahin, M.). Göç Dergisi, 1(1), 11-46.
• Durkaya, M., & Ceylan, S. (2016). İşsizliğin azaltılmasında kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün rolü. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53(615), 23-40.
• Dustmann, C., Fabbri, F., & Preston, I. (2005). The impact of immigration on the British labour market. Economic Journal, 115(507), F324-F341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.01038.x
• Edo, A. (2015). The impact of immigration on native wages and employment. B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 15(3), 1151-1196. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2014-0075
• Eurostat. (2020). Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database. (Accesed Date: 02.07.2020).
• Georgiana Noja, G., & Son, L. (2016). Challenges of international migration in a globalized world: implications for Europe. International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, 2(3), 7-17. https://doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.23.2001
• Glitz, A. (2012). The labor market impact of immigration: A quasi-experiment exploiting immigrant location rules in Germany. Journal of Labor Economics, 30(1), 175-213.
• Güllüpınar, F. (2012). Göç olgusunun ekonomi-politiği ve uluslararası göç kuramları üzerine bir değerlendirme. Yalova Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2(4), 53-85.
• Gündoğmuş, B. (2018). Göç, din ve siyaset Avrupa'da milli görüş. Bilsam Yayıncılık.
• Heywood, A. (2013). Küresel siyaset. Liberte Yayınları.
• IOM. (2020). World Migration Report 2020. Retrieved from: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr_2020.pdf. (Accesed Date: 12.09.2020).
• Islam, A. (2007). Immigration unemployment relationship: The evidence from Canada. Australian Economic Papers, 46(1), 52-66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2007.00305.x
• Jean, S., & Jiménez, M. (2011). The unemployment impact of immigration in OECD countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.11.006
• Latif, E. (2015). The relationship between immigration and unemployment: Panel data evidence from Canada. Economic Modelling, 50, 162-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.013
• Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, Population Association of America, 3(1), 47-57.
• Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22(2), 139-191.
• Longhi, S., Nijkamp, P., & Poot, J. (2006). The impact of immigration on the employment of natives in regional labour markets: A meta-analysis. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 2044.
• Longhi, S., Nijkamp, P., & Poot, J. (2010). Joint impacts of immigration on wages and employment: Review and meta-analysis. Journal of Geographical Systems, 12, 355-387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-010-0111-y
• Lucchino, P., Rosazza-Bondibene, C., & Portes, J. (2012). Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using national insurance number registration data. NIESR Discussion Paper, No: 386.
• Maslow, A. H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50(4), 370–396. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0054346.
• Meyer, J; Brian Rowan. (1977). Institutionalized organizations: Formal structure as myth and ceremony, American Journal of Sociology, 83 (2), 340-363.
• Moreno-Galbis, E., & Tritah, A. (2016). The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries. European Economic Review, 84, 76-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.10.001
• Núñez, I., & Livanos, I. (2010). Higher education and unemployment in Europe: An analysis of the academic subject and national effects. Higher Education, 59(4), 475-487. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-009-9260-7
• Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. Cowles Foundation Paper.
• Ortega, F., & Peri, G. (2009). The causes and effects of international migrations: Evidence from OECD countries 1980-2005. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 14833.
• Ortiz, J., Grimée, J., & Prichard, T. (2015). Analyzing the impact of immigration on unemployment in European Union [Econometric Analysis Undergraduate Research Papers]. College of Liberal Arts - Ivan Allen College (IAC).
• Ozcan, B. (2020). The relationship between immigration, labour market conditions and GDP: Evidence from the states of the USA. Global Business and Economics Review, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.1504/gber.2020.10029805
• Pazarlıoğlu, V., & Çevik, E. İ. (2007). Verimlilik, ücretler ve işsizlik oranları arasındaki ilişkinin analizi: Türkiye örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 14(2), 1-17.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951.
• Petersen, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
• Piore, M. J. (1986). The shifting grounds for immigration. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 485, 23-33.
• Pischke, J. S., & Velling, J. (1997). Employment effects of immigration to Germany: An analysis based on local labor markets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 594-604.
• Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235.
• Robinson, R. (2005). Beyond the state-bounded immigrant incorporation regime: Transnational migrant communities: Their potential contribution to Canada’s leadership role and influence in a globalized world. The North-South Institute.
• Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. The American Economic Review, 75(2), 173-178.
• Strielkowski, W., & Troshchenkov, S. (2013). Economic impact of immigration in Canada. Актуальні Проблеми Економіки, 8(146), 443-450.
• Teichler, U. (1999). Higher education policy and the world of work: Changing conditions and challenges. Higher Education Policy, 12, 285-312.
• UNECE. (2020). Retrieved from: https://w3.unece.org. (Accesed Date: 02.07.2020).
• Yılmaz, Ö. G. (2005). Türkiye ekonomisinde büyüme ile işsizlik oranları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi. Ekonometri ve İstatistik e-Dergisi, 2, 63-76.