LATİN AMERİKA VE ABD HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARI ARASINDA RİSK YAYILIMI: MOMENTLERDE NEDENSELLİK TESTLERİNDEN YENİ BULGULAR

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 2, 230 - 254, 11.01.2019

Bülent Güloğlu , Pınar Kaya

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.511030

Öz

Çalışmanın genel amacı kuyruk bağımlılığı ölçümündeki yeni ekonometrik tekniklerden yararlanarak Latin Amerika ülkeleri ve ABD hisse senedi piyasaları arasında risk yayılımını incelemek, finansal bulaşma olgusunu ortaya çıkarmaktır. Momentlerdeki Granger nedensellik testleri, ortalama ve varyanstaki Granger nedensellik testlerinden farklı olarak, dağılımın kuyruklarındaki nedenselliği ifade etmekte ve bu da riskteki yayılmayı göstermesi bakımından önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada 16/01/2008 – 20/05/2015 dönemi için MERVAL (Arjantin), BOVESPA (Brezilya), COLCAP (Kolombiya), IPC (Meksika), IPSA (Şili) ve S&P 500 (ABD) borsalarının günlük verileri analiz edilecektir. Bulgularımıza göre Brezilya endeks getirisi dağılımının sol kuyruğu, diğer endeks getirileri dağılımlarının sol kuyruğunun nedenidir. Bu sonuçlar piyasaların aşağı yönlü hareketlerinde ve genellikle Brezilya merkezli olarak bulaşma etkisine işaret etmektedir. Buna ek olarak S&P 500’den Latin Amerika hisse senedi piyasalarına doğru nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Bulaşma, Kantil Nedensellik, Hisse Senetleri Piyasaları, GARCH

Kaynakça

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