DOĞU ASYA VE PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ: PANEL VERİ YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 35 Sayı: 2, 105 - 122, 12.03.2015

Ayşe Arı , Fatma Zeren , Burcu Özcan

Öz

Unemployment is one of the main problems of all countries. Thus, the interests and efforts of economists to explain the unemployment is becomes important. In this context, one of the hypothesis put forthed about unemployment is the hysteresis hypothesis. According to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, unemployment rate follows a nonreverting path to its equilibrium in the long-run. The aim of this paper is to investigate the validity of hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rates in the developed East Asian and Pacific countries during the period 1985–2011. To this end we employed the panel unit root test introduced by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Carrion-i-Silvestre et. al. in 2005. The findings show that, the hysteresis does not characterise the unemployment in most of the countries contrary to the first generation panel unit root tests. Thus, it can be said that, the cyclical fluctuations don’t have permanent effect on the unemployment level in these countries

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment hysteresis, natural rate hypothesis, panel unit root test, structural breaks, East Asian and Pacific countries

DOĞU ASYA VE PASİFİK ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ: PANEL VERİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

 işsizliği açıklamaya ilişkin ilgi ve çabaları önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede
işsizlikle ilgili ortaya atılan hipotezlerden birisi histeri hipotezidir. İşsizlik histerisi
hipotezine göre işsizlik oranı, uzun dönemde dengeden uzaklaşan bir seyir izlemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı da, işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini gelişmiş Doğu
Asya ve Pasifik ülkeleri için 1985-2011 döneminde sorgulamaktır. Bu amaçla, Carrion-i-Silvestre ile Carrion-i-Silvestre ve diğerleri tarafından 2005 yılında geliştirilen
panel birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, birinci kuşak panel birim kök
testlerinin aksine, gelişmiş Doğu Asya ve Pasifik ülkelerinin çoğunluğunda işsizlik
histerisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sebeple konjoktürel dalgalanmaların bu

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik histerisi, doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezi, panel birim, kök testi, yapısal kırılmalar, Doğu Asya ve Pasifik ülkeleri

Kaynakça

• ARESTIS, P., MARISCAL, I.B.F., OECD Unemployment: Structural Breaks and Sta- tionarity, Applied Economics, 32(4), 2000, s.399–403.
• BLANCHARD, O., SUMMERS, L., “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem”., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Der: S. Fischer, Cambridge: MIT Pres, 1986, s.15-78.
• BLANCHARD, O., SUMMERS, L., Hysteriesis in Unemployment, European Eco- nomic Review,31,1987, s.288-95.
• BREUER,B., MCNOWN,R., WALLACE,M.S., Misleading Inference from Panel Unit Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity, Review of Inter- national Economics, 9(3), 2001, s.482-493.
• BREUER,B., MCNOWN,R., WALLACE,M.S., Series Specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data, Oxford Bulletion of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 2002, s. 527-546.
• BREUSCH, T., PAGAN, A., The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Application to Mo- del Specifications in Econometrics, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47,1980, s.239–253.
• CAMARERO,M., CARRION-I-SILVERSTRE, J.L, TAMARIT,C., Testing for Hys- teresis in Unemployment in OECD Countries: New Evidence Using Stationary Panel Tests with Breaks, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(2), 2006, s. 167-182.
• CARRION-I-SILVERSTRE, J.L.. Health Care Expenditure and GDP: Are they Bro- ken Stationary?, Journal of Health Economics, 24(5), 2005, s.839–854.
• CARRION-I-SILVERSTRE, J.L., DEL BARRIO-CASTRO, T., LOPEZ-BAZO, E., Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita, Econometrics Journal, 8(2), 2005, s.159–175.
• CHANG , T., LEE, K.C., NIEH,C.C., WEI, C.C., An Empirical Note on Testing Hys- teresis in Unemployment for Ten European Countries: Panel SURADF Appro- ach, Applied Economics Letters, 12(14), 2005, s. 881-886.
• CHOI, I., Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 2001, s. 229–272.
• CHOU, H. C., ZHANG, Y.C., Unemployment hysteresis in G20 countries: Evidence from non-linear panel unit-root tests, African Journal of Business Manage- ment, 6(49),2012, s. 11887–11890.
• CHRISTOPOULOS, K. D., LEO´N-LEDESMA, M.A.,Unemployment hysteresis in EU countries: what do we really know about it?, Journal of Economic Stu- dies, 34(2), 2007, s.80–89.
• CUESTAS, J.C., GIL-ALANA, L.A., Unemployment Hysteresis, Structural Chan- ges, Non Linearities and Fractional Integration in European Transition Eco- nomies, Working Papers 2011005, 2011. http://www.shef.ac.uk/polopoly_ fs/1.105369 /file/2011005, Erişim Tarihi (30.06.2013).
• FRIEDMAN, M.,The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, 58,1968, s. 1–17.
• FURUOKA, F., Unemployment Hysteresis in the East Asia Pacific Region:New Evi- dence from MADF and SURADF Tests, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26(2), 2012, s.133-143.
• GOMES, F., DA-SİLVA, C.G., Histeresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil and Chile, Applied Economics Letters, 15(1), 2008, s.53–56.
• GÜLOĞLU, B., İSPİR, M.S.,Doğal İssizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türki- ye için Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi, Ege Academic Review, 11(2), 2011, s.205–215.
• HADRI, K.,Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels, Econometrics Journal, 3, 2000, s. 148–161.
• HOORELBEKE, D., Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in the Belgian Regi- ons, 2010. http://ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/eco- mod2010/1124.pdf, Erişim Tarihi (25.06.2013).
• IM, K. S., PESARAN, M.H., SHIN,Y., Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, University of Cambridge, Department of Economics, 1997.
• IM, K., PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y., Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 2003, s. 53–74.
• KAPETANIOS,G. SHIN,Y., SNELL, A., Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear Star Framework, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 2003, s.359-379.
• KULA, F., ASLAN, A., Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: One, the other, or both?, MPRA, No. 14054, 2008.
• LEE,J., STRAZICICH,M.L., Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Bre- aks, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 2003, s.1082-1089.
• LEE, H.Y., WU, J.L., LIN,C.H., Hysteresis in East Asian unemployment, Applied Economics, 42(7), 2010, s. 887–898.
• LEON-LEDESMA, M. A., Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach, Bulletin of Economic Research, 54(2), 2001, s. 95–103.
• LEVIN A., LIN, C., CHU, J., Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 2002, s. 1-24.
• LINDBECK, A., SNOWER, D., Wage setting, unemployment and insider outsider relations, American Economic Review, 76(2), 1986, s.235–239.
• MADDALA, G.S., WU, S., A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 1999, s. 631-652.
• MITCHELL, W.F., Testing for Unit Root and Persistence in OECD Unemployment Rate, Applied Economics, 25, 1993, s. 1489–1501.
• NELSON, C.R., PLOSSER, C.I.,Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10,1982, s. 139–162.
• PERRON, P., Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Va- riables, Journal of Econometrics, 80 (2),1997, s. 355–385.
• PHELPS, E.S., Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time, Economica, 34 (3), 1967, s.254–81.
• PESARAN, H.,General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, No.0435, 2004.
• PISSARIDES, C.A.,Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Emp- loyment Shocks, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4),1992, s. 1371–91.
• ROED, K., Unemployment Hysteresis-Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries, Empirical Economics, 21, 1996, s.589–600.
• ROMERO-AVILA,D.,USABIAGA,C., Unit Root Tests, Persistence and the Unemp- loyment Rate of the U.S. States, Southern Economic Journal, 73(3), 1997, s.698-716.
• SONG, F.M., WU, Y., Hysteresis in Unemployment:Evşidence from 48 States, Eco- nomic Inquiry, 35, 1997, s. 235–244.