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COMPARISON OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ON DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS TO EUROPEAN UNION CANDIDATE COUNTRIES

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 46 Sayı: 1, 106 - 128, 27.06.2024

Mehmet İnel

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1497500

Öz

The importance of direct investments made to countries in an increasingly globalized world is escalating day by day. Especially, the use of prediction techniques is required to determine the future of direct foreign investments in European Union candidate countries. This study, which aims to compare prediction techniques in situations with a low sample size, will examine what the most appropriate prediction technique is. The foreign investment values of each candidate country will be predicted in this study. The currently suitable prediction technique and areas for development regarding prediction methods will be discussed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forecasting Techniques Direct Foreign Investment European Union

Kaynakça

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  • Arif, M., Abd El-Aal, M. F., Algarni, A., Fayomi, A., Abdul Rahman, R. A., & Alrashidi, K. (2021). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to Egypt and Determinates: Using Machine Learning Algorithms and ARIMA Model. 9614101, 1-7.
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  • Atiya, A. F., El-Shoura, S. M., Shaheen, S. I., & El-Sherif, M. S. (1999). A Comparison Between Neural-Network Forecasting Techniques—Case Study: River Flow Forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(2), 402-409.
  • Ayenew, B. B. (2022). The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment on The Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2038862-203
  • Bandelj, N. (2002). Embedded Economies: Social Relations as Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe. Soc. Forces, 81(2), 411-444.
  • Bashier, A.-A., & Bataineh, T. (2007). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in Jordan: Univariate ARIMA Model. Journal of Social Sciences, 3(1), 1-6.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: CCC-MGARCH Modeli İle Tahmin. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 36, 71-92.
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  • Breuss, J. F., Egger, P., & Pfaffermayr, M. (2010). Structural Funds, EU Enlargement, and The Redistribution of FDI in Europe. Rev. World Econ., 146(3), 469–494.
  • Cambazoğlu, B., & Karaalp, H. (2014). Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Social Economics, 41.
  • Cantón Croda, R., Gibaja, D., & Caballero, O. (2018). Sales Prediction Through Neural Networks for a Small Dataset. International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, InPress, 1. 1-8.
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AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 46 Sayı: 1, 106 - 128, 27.06.2024

Mehmet İnel

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1497500

Öz

Globalleşen dünyada ülkelere yapılan doğrudan yatırımların önemi her geçen gün artmaktadır. Özellikle Avrupa Birliği aday ülkelerinin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının geleceğini belirlemek amacıyla tahmin tekniklerinin kullanımı gerekmektedir. Düşük sayıda örnek büyüklüğüne sahip durumda tahmin tekniklerini karşılaştırmayı amaçlayan, en uygun tahmin tekniğinin ne olduğu konusunda bir incelemenin yapılacağı bu çalışmada her bir aday ülkelerin yabancı yatırım değerleri tahmin edilecektir. Mevcut durumda uygun olan tahmin tekniği ve tahmin yöntemleri ile ilgili gelişim alanları tartışılacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tahmin Teknikleri Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Avrupa Birliği

Kaynakça

  • Al-rawashdeh, S. T., Nsour, J. H., & Salameh, R. S. (2011). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan for the Years (2011 -2030). International Journal of Business and Management, 6(10), 138-154.
  • Arif, M., Abd El-Aal, M. F., Algarni, A., Fayomi, A., Abdul Rahman, R. A., & Alrashidi, K. (2021). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to Egypt and Determinates: Using Machine Learning Algorithms and ARIMA Model. 9614101, 1-7.
  • Armutlulu, İ. H. (2008). İşletmelerde Uygulamalı İstatistik. İstanbul, Alfa.
  • Atiya, A. F., El-Shoura, S. M., Shaheen, S. I., & El-Sherif, M. S. (1999). A Comparison Between Neural-Network Forecasting Techniques—Case Study: River Flow Forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(2), 402-409.
  • Ayenew, B. B. (2022). The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment on The Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2038862-203
  • Bandelj, N. (2002). Embedded Economies: Social Relations as Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe. Soc. Forces, 81(2), 411-444.
  • Bashier, A.-A., & Bataineh, T. (2007). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in Jordan: Univariate ARIMA Model. Journal of Social Sciences, 3(1), 1-6.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: CCC-MGARCH Modeli İle Tahmin. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 36, 71-92.
  • Bratu, M. (2012). A Comparison of Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods for Macroeconomic Indicators in Romania, Poland and Czech Republic. Journal Of Management And Change, 29, 104-124.
  • Breuss, J. F., Egger, P., & Pfaffermayr, M. (2010). Structural Funds, EU Enlargement, and The Redistribution of FDI in Europe. Rev. World Econ., 146(3), 469–494.
  • Cambazoğlu, B., & Karaalp, H. (2014). Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Social Economics, 41.
  • Cantón Croda, R., Gibaja, D., & Caballero, O. (2018). Sales Prediction Through Neural Networks for a Small Dataset. International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, InPress, 1. 1-8.
  • Carril-Caccia, F., & Pavlova, E. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and It’s Drivers: A Global and EU Perspective. Econ. Bull., 4, 1–25.
  • Cheng, L. K., & Ma, Z. (2010). China's Growing Role in World Trade (China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment). University of Chicago Press, 545-578.
  • Cieslik, A., & Ghodsi, M. (2021). Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries. Int. Econ., 168(July 2020), 56–75.
  • Cruz-Nájera, M.A., Treviño-Berrones, M.G., Ponce-Flores, M.P., Terán-Villanueva, J.D., Castán-Rocha, J.A., Ibarra-Martínez, S., Santiago, A., & Laria-Menchaca, J. (2022). Short Time Series Forecasting: Recommended Methods and Techniques. Symmetry, 14(6), 1231.
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  • Janicki, H. P., & Wunnava, P. V. (2004). Determinants of foreign direct investment: empirical evidence from EU accession candidates. Applied Economics, 36(5), 505-509.
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  • Jere, S., Kasense, B., & Chilyabanyama, O. (2017). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment to Zambia: A Time Series Analysis. Open Journal of Statistics, 7, 122-131.
  • Jirasavetakul, L.-B. F., & Rahman, J. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment in New Member State of the EU and Western Balkans: Taking Stock and Assessing Prospects. IMF Working Papers 2018/187, International Monetary Fund.
  • Kandananond, K. (2012). A Comparison of Various Forecasting Methods for Autocorrelated Time Series. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 4(4), 1-6.
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  • Karagöz, K. (2007). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişlerini Belirleyen Faktörler: 1970–2005. Journal of Yaşar University, 2(8), 929-948.
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  • Kechagia, P., & Metaxas, T. (2022). FDI and Institutions in BRIC and CIVETS Countries: An Empirical Investigation. Economies, 10, 77.
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  • Liu, Y., Guan, L., Hou, C., Han, H., Liu, Z., Sun, Y., & Zheng, M. (2019). Wind Power Short-Term Prediction Based on LSTM and Discrete Wavelet Transform. Applied Sciences, 9(6), 1108.
  • Makki, S. S., & Somwaru, A. (2004). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86(3), 795–801.
  • Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S., & Hyndman, R. (1998). Forecasting Methods And Applications. USA: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Martínez-San Román, V., Bengoa, M., & Sánchez-Robles, B. (2016). Foreign direct investment, trade integration and the home bias: evidence from the European Union. Empir. Econ., 50(1), 197–229.
  • Mateev, M. (2009). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Southeastern Europe: New Empirical Tests. Oxford Journal, Spec. Issue, 8(1), 133-149.
  • Mehic, E., Silajdzic, S., & Babic-Hodovic, V. (2013). The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth: Some Evidence From Southeast Europe. Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade, 49(SUPPL.1), 5–20.
  • Mercan, M., & Göçer, İ. (2014). Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde Hollanda Hastalığı Riski: Ampirik Bir Analiz. H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 251-274.
  • Munjal, S., Varma, S., Bhatnagar, A. (2022). A Comparative Analysis of Indian and Chinese FDI into Africa: The Role of Governance and Alliances. Journal of Business Research, 149, 1018-1033. ISSN 0148-2963.
  • Narin, M. M. A. (2010). Küresel Kriz Sonrası Türk Cumhuriyetleri Ekonomileri ve Türkiye ile Ticari İlişkileri. International Conference On Eurasian Economies 2010, 5-12.
  • Narula, R., & Bellak, C. (2009). EU Enlargement and Consequences for FDI Assisted Industrial Development. Transnational Corporations, 18(2).
  • OECD. (2008). OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment FOURTH EDITION 2008.
  • Oksay, S. (1998). Çokuluslu Şirketler Teorileri Çerçevesinde, yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının İncelenerek, Değerlendirilmesi. Dış Ticaret Müsteşarlığı Dergisi, 8, 1-10.
  • Önder, E., & Kuzu, S. (2014). Forecasting Air Traffic Volumes Using Smoothing Techniques. Journal Of Aeronautics And Space Technologies, 7(1), 65-85.
  • Özcan, B., & Arı, A. (2010). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: OECD Örneği. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 12, 65-88.
  • Pasini, A. (2015). Artificial Neural Networks For Small Dataset Analysis. Journal of Thoracic Disease, 7(5).
  • Pegkas, P. (2015). The impact of FDI on Economic Growth in Eurozone Countries. J. Econ. Asymmetries, 12(2), 124-132.
  • Peker, O., & Göçer, İ. (2010). Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların Türkiye’deki İşsizliğe Etkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Ege Akademik Bakış, 10(4), 1187-1194.
  • Plikynas, D., & Akbar, Y. H. (2006). Neural Network Approaches to Estimating FDI Flows: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. Eastern European Economics, 44(3), 29–59. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4380466.
  • Polat, B., & Payaslıoğlu, C. (2016). Exchange Rate Uncertainty and FDI İnflows: The Case of Turkey. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 23(1), 112-129.
  • Popescu, G. H. (2014). FDI and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Sustainability, 6, 8149-8163.
  • Rafi, S. H., Deeba, S. R., & Hossain, E. (2021). A Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Using Integrated CNN and LSTM Network. IEEE Access, 9, 32436-32448.
  • Rehman, S., & Ahmad, H. K. (2016). The Impact Of Foreign Capital Inflows On Economic Growth: Pooled Mean Group Analysis For Developing Countries. Pakistan Economic And Social Review, 54(2), 191-203.
  • Resmini, L. (2007). Regional Patterns of Industry Location in Transition Countries: Does Economic Integration with the European Union Matter? Regional Studies, 41(6), 747-764.
  • Roy, A. G., & Berg, H. F. V. den (2006). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Time-Series Approach. Global Economy Journal, 6(1), 1-19. , Sağlam, Y. (2017). FDI and Economic Growth in European Transition Economies: Panel Data Analysis. FDI Econ. Growth Eur. Transit. Econ. Panel Data Anal., 12(46), 123–135.
  • Saray, M. O. (2011). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar İstihdam İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 161, 381-403.
  • Săvoiu, G., & Ţaicu, M. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment Models, Based on Country Risk for Some Post-socialist Central and Eastern European Economies. Procedia Econ. Financ., 10(14), 249-260.
  • Sawalha, N. N., Elian, M. I., & Suliman, A. H. (2016). Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Growth In Developed And Emerging Economies: A Comparative Analysis. The Journal of Developing Areas, 50(1), 237-256.
  • Sethi, D., Guisinger, S. E., Phelan, S. E., & Berg, D. M. (2003). Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Flows: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Journal of International Business Studies, 34(4), 315-326.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2003). Uluslararası İktisat Teori Politika Ve Uygulama, 15. Baskı. İstanbul: Güzem Can Yay.
  • Seyoum, M., Wu, R., & Lin, J. (2015). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Case of Developing African Economies. Social Indicators Research, 122(1), 45-64.
  • Sharma, D., & Phulli, K. (2020). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling: Forecasting FDI in India. ScienceOpen Posters, 1.
  • Simionescu, M. (2015). Modelling And Predicting Foreign Direct Investment In Romania. Review of Economic Studies and Research Virgil Madgearu, 1, 125-150.
  • Singh, S., & Kumar, D. (2017). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows In India With ARIMA Models, 8(11), 2348–9359.
  • Sova, R., Albu, L. L., Stanciu, I., & Sova, A. (2009). Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment in the New EU Countries. Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, 6(2), 42-51.
  • Stevenson, S. (2007). A Comparison Of The Forecasting Ability Of ARIMA Models. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 25(3), 223-240.
  • Sun, Q., Tong, H. S., & Yu, Q. (2002). Determinants of foreign direct investment across China. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(1), 79-113.
  • Tandırcıoğlu, H., & Özen, A. (2003). Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(4), 105-129.
  • Tatoğlu, E., & Glaister, K. W. (1998). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey. Thunderbird International Business Review, 40(3), 279-314.
  • Taylor, J. W. (2008). A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center. Management Science, 54(2), 253-265.
  • Tratar, L. F., & Strmcnik, E. (2016). The Comparison Of Holt-Winters Method And Multiple Regression Method: A Case Study. Energy, 109, 266-276.
  • Tsai, B.-H. (2014). Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment by Using Bass Diffusion Model Integrated with Genetic Algorithms. 2014 Fifth International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Engineering Applications, 507-510.
  • Tsimpida, C., & Bitzenis, A. (2022). An Investigation of the Role of FDI in Stimulating Growth in EU: Evidence from Panel ARDL Analysis. J. East-West Bus., 1–31.
  • Türen, U., Gökmen, Y., & Dilek, H. (2011). Ekonomik Özgürlük Endeksinin Yurt Dışına Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Yapan Türk Sermayesinin Ülke Seçim Kararına Etkisi Var Mıdır? Maliye Dergisi, 161, 298-325.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Avrupa Birliği Başkanlığı. (2023). Avrupa Birliği'nin Genişlemesi. https://www.ab.gov.tr/p.php?e=109#:~:text=Mevcut%20durumda%20T%C3%BCrkiye%20d%C4%B1%C5%9F%C4%B1nda%20AB,ile%20kat%C4%B1l%C4%B1m%20m%C3%BCzakerelerine%20ba%C5%9Flam%C4%B1%C5%9F%20durumdad%C4%B1r.
  • Uygur, S. (2013). Ülkemizin Dış Ticaret Ve Doğrudan Yurt Dışı Yatırımlarında Tercih Ettiği Ülkeler İçin Rank Korelasyonu Ve Kümeleme Analizi. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 95-113.
  • Ventura, K. (2005). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarında Çok Uluslu Şirketlerin Çin Pazarına Yönelme Eğilimleri Türkiye Yönünden Bir Değerlendirme. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 12(1), 79-94.
  • Vujanović, N., Casella, B., & Bolwijn, R. (2021). Forecasting global FDI: A panel data approach. Transnatl. Corp., 28(1), 97-125.
  • Wang, X., Xu, Z., Qin, Y., & Skare, M. (2022). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: a dynamic study of measurement approaches and results. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 1011-1034.
  • Weatherford, L. R., & Kimes, S. E. (2003). A Comparison Of Forecasting Methods For Hotel Revenue Management. International Journal of Forecasting, 19(3), 401-415.
  • World Bank Open Data. (2016). Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/ on 10.05.2016.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2006). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Belirleyicileri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. D.E.Ü.İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(2), 23-48.
  • Yılmaz, N. T., & Can, T. (2016). The Analysis Of Foreign Direct Investment With Hidden Markov Model: Evidence From Turkey. 10, 117-133.
Toplam 103 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası Finans, İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mehmet İnel

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 27 Haziran 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 46 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA İnel, M. (2024). AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 46(1), 106-128. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1497500
AMA İnel M. AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. Haziran 2024;46(1):106-128. doi:10.14780/muiibd.1497500
Chicago İnel, Mehmet. “AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 46, sy. 1 (Haziran 2024): 106-28. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1497500.
EndNote İnel M (01 Haziran 2024) AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 46 1 106–128.
IEEE M. İnel, “AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, c. 46, sy. 1, ss. 106–128, 2024, doi: 10.14780/muiibd.1497500.
ISNAD İnel, Mehmet. “AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 46/1 (Haziran 2024), 106-128. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1497500.
JAMA İnel M. AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2024;46:106–128.
MLA İnel, Mehmet. “AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, c. 46, sy. 1, 2024, ss. 106-28, doi:10.14780/muiibd.1497500.
Vancouver İnel M. AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ADAY ÜLKELERİNE YAPILAN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNE TAHMİN TEKNİKLERİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2024;46(1):106-28.

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