TÜRKİYE’DE TİCARİ AÇIKLIK, FİNANSAL AÇIKLIK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLER: SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 255 - 272, 25.01.2016

A. Öznur Ümit

Öz

Özet

 

 Bu çalışmada, ticari açıklık, finansal açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Türkiye için 1989-2014 dönemi kapsamında üçer aylık veriler yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı,  Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi ile analiz edilmiş ve ticari açıklık ile finansal açıklık değişkenlerinin düzeyde ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenin ilk farkında durağan olduğu gözlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemek amacıyla Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Test sonuçları, finansal açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü ve büyümeden ticari açıklığa doğru olan tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi sınır testiyle incelenmiş ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Uzun ve kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları ise, ekonomik büyümenin ticari açıklıktan negatif, finansal açıklıktan pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilendiğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi, Sınır Testi.

JEL Sınıflandırması       : C32, F15, F21, F43.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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