Küresel Ekonomik Güç Dengesi Ve Güvenlik Politikaları

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 118 - 152, 30.06.2024

Mihriban Bildir

Öz

Ekonomik düzlemde dünyada çok kutupluluk giderek derinleşmektedir. Tedarik zincirleri karmaşık ve geniş bir uluslararası ağ haline gelmiş ve küresel düzeyde ara mal ticareti nihai mal ticaretini aşmıştır. Artan uzmanlaşma verimlilik kazanımlarına yol açarken aynı zamanda küresel değer zincirleri küresel ekonomi için bir kırılganlık kaynağı haline gelmiştir. Olumlu küresel koşullar altında nispeten iyi çalışan üretim zincirleri ve finansman ağlarının COVID-19 ve artan jeopolitik gerilim zamanlarında daha az dayanıklı olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında artan ticari faaliyet ve ortak çıkarların siyasi yakınlaşmayı da beraberinde getirmesi gelişmiş ülkelerin ekonomi ve ulusal güvenlik hedeflerinin çatışmaya başlamasına yol açmış, gıda güvensizliği, enerji kıtlığı ve eksikliği gibi daha önce göz ardı edilen gelişmelerin de etkisiyle güvenlik tanımı savaş ve terörizmle ilgili konuların ötesine geçmiştir. Ekonomik güvenliğin korunması stratejik teknoloji politikaları oluşturulmasını ve büyümeyi baltalamadan güvenlik tehditlerini etkisiz hale getiren karmaşık kararlar almayı gerektirmektedir.
Küresel ekonomik tahminler gelecekte Çin ile ABD arasında bir hegemonik mücadele olasılığını güçlendirmektedir. Ekonomik güç mücadelesinde olduğu gibi uluslararası güvenlik alanında da ABD-Çin ilişkileri karmaşık bir görünüm içermektedir. Artan jeopolitik gerilimler ile modernizasyon gereksinimleri savunma harcamalarındaki artışın önümüzdeki yıllarda devam edeceğine işaret etmektedir. Diğer yandan, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde artan kamu borçları ve vergi artışlarının siyasi maliyetinin artması ile savunma harcamalarının finansmanı küresel düzeyde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada veriler ışığında ekonomik güç dengesinin mevcut durumu incelenerek geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlar doğrultusunda küresel ekonomik güç dengesi ve güvenlik politikalarının seyri ile ilgili tahminler değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ABD, Güvenlik, Ticaret, Küreselleşme, çin

Global Economic Balance of Power and Security Policies

Öz

Economic multipolarity is gradually deepening in the world. Supply chains have become a complex and extensive international network and global trade in intermediate goods has exceeded trade in final goods. While increased specialization has led to efficiency gains, global value chains have also become a source of vulnerability for the global economy. Production chains and financing networks that worked relatively well under favorable global conditions have proven less resilient in times of COVID-19 and increased geopolitical tension. Increasing commercial activity and common interests among developing countries, as well as political rapprochement, have led to conflict between the economic and national security goals of developed countries, and with the impact of previously ignored developments such as food insecurity, energy scarcity and scarcity, the term “International Security” has become increasingly difficult to define. Protecting economic security requires establishing strategic technology policies and making complex decisions that neutralize security threats without undermining growth.
Global economic forecasts strengthen the possibility of a hegemonic struggle between China and the USA in the future. As in the struggle for economic power, US-China relations are complex in the field of international security. Increasing geopolitical tensions and modernization requirements indicate that the increase in defense expenditures will continue in the coming years. On the other hand, the financing of defense expenditures is being discussed at the global level due to the increasing political costs of increasing public debts and tax increases, especially in developing countries. In this study, the current situation of the economic power balance is examined in the light of the data and predictions about the course of the global economic power balance and security policies are evaluated in line with future projections.

Anahtar Kelimeler

USA, CHINA, Security, Trade, Globalization

Kaynakça

• Aiyar, S., Ilyina, A., & others. (2023). Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism. Staff Discussion Note SDN/2023/001, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
• Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2011). Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century.
• Baier, S., & Bergstrand, J. (2001). The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity. Journal of International Economics, 53(1), 1-27.
• Béraud-Sudreau, L., & Bastian, Giegerich. (2017). Counting to Two: Analysing the NATO Defence Spending Target. Military Balance Blog.
• Blanchard, J. M. (2007). China Multinational Corporations and Globalization: Beijing and Microsoft Battle over the Opening of China’s Gates. Asian Perspective, 31.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). (2016). Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises: U.S. Parent Companies and Their Foreign Affiliates. Group H. U.S. Parents: U.S. Trade in Goods.
• Burns, N., Bitounis, L., & Price, J. (Eds.). (2017). The World Turned Upside Down: Maintaining American Leadership in a Dangerous Age. Aspen Institute.
• Chow, D. C. K., Sheldon, I., & McGuire, W. (2018). How The United States Withdrawal From The Trans-Pacific Partnership Benefits China. University Of Pennsylvania Journal Of Law & Public Affairs, 4.
• Clements, B., Gupta, S., & Khamidova, S. (2021). Military Spending in the post-pandemic era. IMF, Finance and Development.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO). (2020). Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO). (2023). Long-Term Implications of the 2024 Future Years Defense Program.
• Derviş, K. (2012). World Economy: Convergence, Interdependence and Divergence. Finance & Development.
• Dollar, D. (2023). The future of Asia-Pacific value chains. Brookings Institution.
• Dowdy, J. (2017). More tooth, less tail: Getting beyond NATO’s 2 percent rule. McKinsey & Company.
• Farrell, H., & Newman, A. (2023). The New Economic Security State: How De-risking Will Remake Geopolitics. Foreign Affairs.
• Fung, K. C., Korhonen, I., Li, K., & Ng, F. (2008). China and Central and Eastern European Countries: Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Competitors? Policy Research Working Paper No. 4689. World Bank.
• Gertz, G. (2018). Commercial Diplomacy and Political Risk. International Studies Quarterly.
• Gleick, P. H. (2014). Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather, Climate and Society.
• Jones, G. G. (2005). Nationality and Multinationals in Historical Perspective. Harvard Business School.
• Kennedy, P. (1994). Büyük Güçlerin Yükseliş ve Çöküşleri [Rise and Fall of Great Powers]. (B. Karanakçı, Çev.) (5. Baskı). Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
• Kim, I. S., & Milner, H. V. (2019). Multinational Corporations and their Influence Through Lobbying on Foreign Policy. Brookings Institution.
• Mattelaer, A. (2016). US Leadership and NATO: Revisiting the Principles of NATO Burden-Sharing. Parameters, 46(1).
• May, P. (2019). The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Review of Political Economy. doi:10.1080/09538259.2019.1644736
• McInnis, K. J., & Fata, D. (2022). 2 Percent Defense Spending Is a Bad Target for NATO. Foreign Policy.
• National Intelligence Council. (2021). Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf
• NATO Public Diplomacy Division. (2022). Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2022). Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/220627-def-exp-2022-en.pdf
• Nye, J. S. (1974). Multinational Corporations in World Politics. Foreign Affairs, 53(1).
• Ochmanek, D. A., Dowd, A., Flanagan, S. J., Hoehn, A. R., Hornung, J. W., Lostumbo, M. J., & Mazarr, M. J. (2023). Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence. RAND Corporation. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2555-1.html
• OECD. (2018). Multinational Enterprises in the Global Economy: Heavily Debated but Hardly Measured. Policy Note. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/industry/ind/MNEs-inthe-global-economy-policy-note.pdf
• OTA, T. (2003). The Role of Special Economic Zones in China’s Economic Development As Compared with Asian Export Processing Zones: 1979-1995.
• Önder, H. (2022). NATO Üyelerinin %2’lik Savunma Harcama Hedefine Yakınsamasının Sınanması. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksek Okulu Dergisi, 25(2).
• PWC. (2017). The Long View: How Will the Global Economic Order Change by 2050? Retrieved from https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf Rizzo, R., & Townsend, J. (2017). NATO Allies Should Not Be Judged on Defence Spending Alone. National Interest.
• Schoenbaum, T. (2023). The Biden Administration’s Trade Policy: Promise and Reality. German Law Journal, 24(1), 102-124. doi:10.1017/glj.2023.7
• Sztajerowska, M. (2023). Supply-chain disruptions and new investment policies in the post-COVID-19 world: Initial insights from project-level data. OECD Working Papers on International Investment, 2023/01. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1787/5fcc2892-en
• Techau, J. (2015). The Politics of 2 Percent NATO and the Security Vacuum in Europe. Carnegie Europe. Retrieved from https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/CP_252_Techau_NATO_Final.pdf
• Treisman, D. (2020). Economic Development and Democracy: Predispositions and Triggers. Annual Review of Political Science. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-043546
• UNCTAD. (2016). World Investment Report.
• Weisbrot, M., & Johnston, J. (2016). Voting Share Reform at the IMF: Will it Make a Difference? CEPR. Retrieved from https://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/IMF-voting-shares-2016-04.pdf
• Whyte, M. K. (2010). Myth of the Social Volcano: Perceptions of Inequality and Distributive Injustice in Contemporary China. Stanford University Press. Retrieved from https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=17871
• Zhang, Z. (2019). How China Seeks to Foster an Asia-Pacific Security Community: Peace through Consultation, Cooperation, and Co-development. Australian Journal of Politics & History, 65, 395-411. doi:10.1111/ajph.12591