Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Inflation: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 3, 2487 - 2514, 30.11.2022

Orhan Şanlı

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1082470

Cited By: 4

Öz

In this study, the effects of the nominal dollar exchange rate and the industrial production index on WPI were analyzed using the ARDL bounds test method. The analysis of the study covers the period the 2005:M1-2021:M11 with monthly data. According to the results of the study, a 1% increase in the dollar exchange rate leads to an increase of approximately 0.7% in the WPI. When the industrial production index increases by 1%, the WPI increases by 1.04%. In addition, the fact that the growth in industrial production increases producer inflation reveals important results in terms of foreign dependency of production. These results raise concerns about growth with high inflation. The implementation of a rapid growth model in an economy with high inflation and high exchange rates may lead to an income-reducing situation for final consumers. These results show that a stable inflation and growth process in Turkey is based on a balanced exchange rate and interest rate policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate, CPI, Industrial Production Index, Inflation, ARDL

Döviz Kuru Dalgalanmalarının Enflasyona Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada nominal dolar kurunun ve sanayi üretim endeksinin TEFE üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın analiz kısmı aylık verilerle 2001:M1-2021:M11 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre dolar kurundaki %1’lik artış TEFE’de yaklaşık %0.7 oranında artışa yol açmaktadır. Sanayi üretim endeksi %1 arttığında TEFE %1,04 oranında artmaktadır. Ayrıca sanayi üretimindeki büyümenin üretici enflasyonunu artırması, üretimin dışa bağımlılığı konusunda önemli sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar yüksek enflasyonla büyüme endişelerini gündeme getirmektedir. Yüksek enflasyon ve yüksek kurların olduğu bir ekonomide hızlı büyüme modelinin uygulanması nihai tüketicilerde gelir azaltıcı bir duruma yol açabilir. Bu sonuçlar Tükiye’de istikrarlı bir enflasyon ve büyüme sürecinin dengeli bir kur ve faiz politikasına dayandığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru, TEFE, Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Efnlasyon, ARDL

Kaynakça

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