Covid-19 Affects The US Economy Uncertainty?

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 317 - 332, 23.03.2023

Tuncer Gövdeli , Tuba Özkan , Esra Karakuş

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1109097

Öz

COVID-19 salgınının ekonomik ve sosyal maliyetleri; toplumu, bireysel yatırımcıları, politika yapıcıları ve tüm finansal piyasa katılımcılarını etkilemektedir. COVID-19 salgını, finansal piyasalarda ve aynı zamanda petrol de dahil olmak üzere emtia fiyatlarında ve reel ekonomide şok dalgaları yarattı. Bu çalışmada 31.12.2019 ile 30.11.2020 günlük verileri kullanılarak ABD için yeni COVID-19 vaka sayıları, ABD hisse senedi fiyat endeksi, ham petrol fiyatı ile ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksi arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL sınır testi ile araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar ABD’de ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksi belirleyicileri arasında kısa ve uzun vadede eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir. Uzun vadeli esnekliklerde, COVID-19 vaka sayılarındaki %1’lik artış ABD’nin ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksini %0.086 artıracağı, ham petrol fiyatındaki %1’lik artışın ABD’nin ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksini %0.410 azaltacağı ve ABD hisse senedi fiyat endeksindeki %1 lik artışın ABD’nin ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksini %3.167 düşüreceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, Hisse Senedi Fiyatı, Ham Petrol, Ekonomi Politikası, Belirsizlik Endeksi, ABD.

Covid-19 Affects The US Economy Uncertainty?

Öz

The economic and social costs of the COVID-19 pandemic affect society, individual investors, policy makers and all financial market participants. The COVID-19 pandemic has created shock waves in financial markets, as well as commodity prices, including oil, and the real economy. In this study, using the daily data of 31.12.2019 and 30.11.2020 the short and long-term relationship between the number of new COVID-19 cases for the USA the US stock price index the crude oil price and the economic policy uncertainty index was investigated by ARDL bounds test. The results of the study indicate that there are short-term and long-term cointegration between economic policy uncertainty index determinants in USA. A 1% increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is expected to lead to a 0.086% increase in the US economic policy uncertainty index, and a 1% increase in the price of crude oil to a 0.410 decrease. A 1% increase in the US economic policy uncertainty index and the US stock price index will lead to a 3.167% decrease in the US economic policy uncertainty index.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19, Stock Price, Crude Oil, Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, USA.

Kaynakça

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