Küreselleşme, Enflasyon ve Para Politikasının Etkinliği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 2551 - 2578, 30.11.2023

Zeki Akbakay

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1170277

Öz

Enflasyon oranları 1970’lerdeki yükselişinin ardından 1980’lerde düşmeye başlamış ve Covid- 19 pandemisinin hız kestiği 2021 ortalarına kadar düşük düzeyde kalmaya devam etmiştir. Yaşanan bu fiyat istikrarı aynı zamanda küreselleşme olgusunun hızlandığı döneme denk gelmektedir. Bu, küreselleşmenin enflasyon ve para politikasının etkinliği üzerindeki etkisine dair tartışmayı da tetiklemiştir. İktisat teorisi, enflasyon ve para politikası aktarım mekanizmasının küreselleşmeden etkilendiğini savunur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, "küreselleşme parasal bir genişlemenin enflasyonist etkisini ve enflasyon oranlarını nasıl etkiler" sorularına cevap aramaktır. Bu amaçla 39 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 2000-2020 dönemine ait verileri dinamik panel veri yöntemleriyle analiz edilmektedir. Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (GMM) tahmincisinin sonuçlarına göre hem ticari küreselleşme hem de finansal küreselleşmedeki artış enflasyon oranlarının düşmesine neden olmaktadır. Diğer taraftan küreselleşme parasal bir genişlemenin enflasyonist etkisini artırmaktadır. Benzer sonuçlar küreselleşmenin farklı ölçümleri ile yapılan analizlerde de ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre küreselleşme enflasyon dinamiklerini ve para politikası aktarım mekanizmasını etkilemektedir. Bu yüzden merkez bankalarının karar alma süreçlerinde dış faktörleri dikkate almaları gerekir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, enflasyon, para politikası, sistem GMM, gelişmekte olan ülkeler

Globalization, inflation and The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Öz

After rising in the 1970s, inflation rates began to decline in the 1980s and remained low until mid-2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic decelerated. This price stability also coincides with the period when the phenomenon of globalization accelerated. This has triggered the debate about the impact of globalization on inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Economic theory argues that inflation and monetary policy transmission mechanism are affected by globalization. The aim of this study is to seek answers to the questions of "how does globalization affect the inflationary effect of monetary expansion and inflation rates". For this purpose, the data of 39 developing countries for the period 2000-2020 are analyzed with dynamic panel data methods. According to the results of the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, the increase in both trade globalization and financial globalization causes inflation rates to decrease. On the other hand, globalization increases the inflationary effect of a monetary expansion. In the study, similar results were obtained in the analyzes made with different measures of globalization. According to these results, globalization affects inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission mechanism. Therefore, central banks need to consider external factors in their decision-making processes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, inflation, monetary policy, system GMM, developing countries

Kaynakça

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