Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Şeref Can Serin; İlter Ünlükaplan

doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Araştırma Makalesi

Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Yıl 2022, , 264 - 287, 19.12.2022

Şeref Can Serin , İlter Ünlükaplan

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Öz

An essential part of the ongoing normative debate on how to design the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices argues that counter-cyclical fiscal policies based on the Keynesian view should be preferred to pro-cyclical practices because of their stabilizing effects. In this context, the empirical analysis of the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is an area that is up to date, first introduced by Gavin and Perotti (1997). The common opinion of empirical studies is that counter-cyclical practices are applied in developed economies; pro-cycle practices are more common in developing and underdeveloped economies. This study examines the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices in Turkiye from 1990-2020 with the ARDL method. As a result of the study, findings were obtained that Turkiye's fiscal policy practices have a counter-cyclical structure but lose its fiscal space for a maneuver. The robustness tests also support the findings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Business Cycle, Fiscal Policy, Time Series Analysis

Kaynakça

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Alesina, A., Campante, F. R. and Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.5.1006
Alesina, A., Campante, F. R. and Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.5.1006
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Maliye Politikası Çevrim Yanlısı Mı Yoksa Çevrim Karşıtı mı? Türkiye için ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Yıl 2022, , 264 - 287, 19.12.2022

Şeref Can Serin , İlter Ünlükaplan

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Öz

Maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerinin nasıl tasarlanması gerektiği konusunda süregelen normatif tartışmaların önemli bir kısmı, Keynesyen görüş temelli çevrim-karşıtı maliye politikalarının istikrarlandırıcı etkileri nedeniyle çevrim-yanlısı uygulamalara tercih edilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, maliye politikasının çevrimsel davranışlarının ampirik analizi ilk defa Gavin ve Perotti (1997) tarafından ortaya konulmuş, güncelliğini koruyan bir alanıdır. Bu konudaki ampirik çalışmaların ortak kanısı, çevrim-karşıtı uygulamalara gelişmiş ekonomilerde; çevrim yanlısı uygulamalara ise gelişmekte ve az gelişmiş ekonomilerde daha sık rastlanıldığı yönündedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de ihtiyari maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerini 1990-2020 dönemi için ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiye’de maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrim-karşıtı ancak giderek mali manevra alanını kaybeden bir yapıya sahip olduğuna dair bulgular elde edilmiştir. Yapılan sağlamlık sınamaları da elde edilen bulguları desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İş Çevrimleri, Maliye Politikası, Zaman Serisi Analizi

Kaynakça

Alesina, A., and Tabellini, G. (2005). Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? NBER Working Paper n_11600. https://doi.org/10.3386/w11600
Alesina, A., and Tabellini, G. (2005). Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? NBER Working Paper n_11600. https://doi.org/10.3386/w11600
Alesina, A., Campante, F. R. and Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.5.1006
Alesina, A., Campante, F. R. and Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.5.1006
Barro, R. J. (1979). On the Determination of the Public Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940- 971. https://doi.org/10.1086/260807
Barro, R. J. (1979). On the Determination of the Public Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940- 971. https://doi.org/10.1086/260807
Barro, R. J. (1997). Macroeconomics (5.th ed). Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Barro, R. J. (1997). Macroeconomics (5.th ed). Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Barro, R. J. and Ursúa, J. F. (2017). Stock-market crashes and depressions. Research in Economics, 71(3), 384-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2017.04.001
Barro, R. J. and Ursúa, J. F. (2017). Stock-market crashes and depressions. Research in Economics, 71(3), 384-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2017.04.001
Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of economics, 113(3), 949-963. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555793
Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of economics, 113(3), 949-963. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555793
Bulus, G. C. (2020). Growth-maximizing public debt in Turkey: An empirical investigation. Economics and Business Review, 6(3), 68-87. https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2020.3.4
Bulus, G. C. (2020). Growth-maximizing public debt in Turkey: An empirical investigation. Economics and Business Review, 6(3), 68-87. https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2020.3.4
Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. NBER: USA. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measuring-business-cycles
Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. NBER: USA. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measuring-business-cycles
Candelon, B., Muysken, J. and Vermeulen, R. (2010). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe: An update. Oxford Economic Papers, 62(2), 323-349. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp017
Candelon, B., Muysken, J. and Vermeulen, R. (2010). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe: An update. Oxford Economic Papers, 62(2), 323-349. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpp017
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Larch, M., Kumps, D., Cugnasca, A. and Orseau, E. (2019). Fiscal Policy and the Assessment of Output Gaps in Real Time: An Exercise in Risk Management. ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper, No, 19-013. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3383367
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Lledo, V., Yackovlev, I. and Gadenne, L. (2009). Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub- Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors. IMF Working Paper, No, 09/274, 1-32.
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Manasse, P. (2006). Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - a View from Mars. IMF Working Paper, No, 06/27. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=888172
Martorano, B. (2018). Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the period 1990—2015. Review of Development Economics, 22(1), 67-90. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12329
Martorano, B. (2018). Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the period 1990—2015. Review of Development Economics, 22(1), 67-90. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12329
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Mert, M. and Çağlar, E, A. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
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Toplam 110 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	İngilizce
Bölüm	Makaleler
Yazarlar	Şeref Can Serin 0000-0001-8575-9128 İlter Ünlükaplan 0000-0002-5420-3642
Yayımlanma Tarihi	19 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi	12 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2022

Kaynak Göster

APA	Serin, Ş. C., & Ünlükaplan, İ. (2022). Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
AMA	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. Aralık 2022;23(2):264-287. doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Chicago	Serin, Şeref Can, ve İlter Ünlükaplan. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23, sy. 2 (Aralık 2022): 264-87. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
EndNote	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ (01 Aralık 2022) Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23 2 264–287.
IEEE	Ş. C. Serin ve İ. Ünlükaplan, “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 2, ss. 264–287, 2022, doi: 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
ISNAD	Serin, Şeref Can - Ünlükaplan, İlter. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23/2 (Aralık 2022), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
JAMA	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022;23:264–287.
MLA	Serin, Şeref Can ve İlter Ünlükaplan. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 2, 2022, ss. 264-87, doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
Vancouver	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022;23(2):264-87.

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