Euro Bölgesi Enflasyon Oranında Şokların Kalıcılığı Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2023, , 622 - 641, 04.12.2023

Öznur Taşdöken , Hakan Kahyaoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1290193

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2001M1-2022M11 yılları arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak Euro bölgesinde seçilmiş ülkelerin enflasyon oranları üzerinden fiyat değişkenliğinin yapısı analiz edilmektedir. Yapı analizi enflasyon oranlarının farklı dönemler arasındaki durağanlıktan durağan olmayana veya tersine geçiş yapan bir sürecin tahmini yapılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, söz konusu analizde incelenen bütün ülkelere ait enflasyon oranlarının değişim noktalarının tespitine yönelik tahminler de yapılmıştır. Bulgularımız covid19 döneminden önce enflasyon oranlarında ortalamaya dönme eğiliminin devam ettiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu fiyat istikrarı ve enflasyon hedeflemesi için öngörülen %2 enflasyon oranına karşı bir kalıcılık ve direnç olduğu biçiminde yorumlanabilir. Ancak bu yapı analiz sonuçlarımıza göre covid19 salgın döneminde enflasyon oranının ortalamaya dönme eğilimi yapısında bir değişim olduğu yönündedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Avrupa Birliği, Enflasyon oranı, Yapısal kırılma, Uzun hafıza, Covid19 salgını

An Examination on the Persistence of Shocks in the Eurozone Inflation Rate

Öz

In this study, the structure of price variability is analyzed over the inflation rates of selected countries in the Eurozone using monthly data between 2001M1-2022M11. The structure analysis is analyzed by estimating a process by which inflation rates move from stationary to non-stationary or vice versa across different periods. In addition, in this analysis, forecasts were also made to determine the change points of inflation rates for all countries analyzed. Our findings suggest that the tendency for inflation rates to revert to the mean continued before the covid19 period. This can be interpreted as a persistence and resistance to the 2% inflation rate envisaged for price stability and inflation targeting. However, according to our analysis results, there is a change in the structure of the tendency of the inflation rate to return to the average during the covid19 pandemic period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

European Union, Inflation rate, Structural break, Long memory, Covid19 pandemic

Kaynakça

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