Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 82 - 95, 25.04.2018

Doğan Barak , Mustafa Naimoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.396831

Cited By: 15

Öz

Bu
çalışmada, kırılgan beşli olarak nitelendirilen ülkelerde dış ticaret, reel
döviz kuru ve ticari açıklık (trade openness) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli
ilişki, 2000-2014 dönemine ait panel verileri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır.
Ampirik analiz için, Panel ARDL yöntemi, Granger nedensellik testi ve varyans
ayrıştırma analizi kullanılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda, hem kısa dönemde hem de
uzun dönemde dış ticaret ile reel döviz kuru arasında negatif ve istatiksel
olarak anlamlı bir ilişki mevcuttur. Diğer taraftan dış ticaret ile ticari
açıklık göstergesi arasında pozitif ve istatiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki
olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, Granger nedensellik testi sonucuna göre
ticari açıklıktan dış ticarete doğru tek yönlü nedensellik vardır. Ama reel
döviz kurundan dış ticarete doğru bir nedensellik yoktur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Ticaret, Reel Döviz Kuru, Panel ARDL, Kırılgan Beşli

Impact of Real Exchange Rate on International Trade: The Case of Fragile Five

Öz

In this study,
the short and long-term relationship between international trade, real exchange
rate and trade openness in countries that are classified as fragile five is
being investigated using panel data for the period 2000-2014. For empirical
analysis, panel ARDL method, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis
are used. As a result of analysis, there is a negative and statistically
significant relationship between international trade and real exchange rate in
both short term and long term.  On the
other hand, it is concluded that there is a positive and statistically
significant relationship between international trade and trade openness
indicator. In addition, the  Granger
causality test yield unidirectional causality from trade openness to
trade.  But there is no a causality from
real exchange rate to trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade, Real Exchange Rate, Panel ARDL, Fragile Five

Kaynakça

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