Asymmetric and Nonlinear Pass-Through of Global Crude Oil Price to Inflation in Turkey

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 17 - 32, 15.01.2019

Erkan Özata

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.466150

Cited By: 9

Öz

Since
the fluctuations in oil prices have important economic consequences, it is one
of the most frequently investigated topics by scholars and policymakers. Although increase in oil prices
is good for oil exporting countries, it is bad for countries like Turkey who
meet energy needs by importing crude oil. The effect of global crude oil prices
on domestic inflation is not very clear. In this study, based on the augmented
Phillips curve framework, linear and nonlinear ARDL methods are used to examine
the asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations on consumer and producer
prices in Turkey.  According to the
empirical results, the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on consumer and
producer prices are asymmetrical in the long run and symmetrical in the short
run. A %100 increase in oil price increases CPI by %13,05 and PPI by %14,7. A
%100 decrease in oil price decrease CPI by %11,27 and PPI by %7,24.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Crude Oil Prices, Asymmetric Pass-through, Inflation, NARDL

Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatlarından Enflasyona Asimetrik ve Doğrusal Olmayan Geçişkenlik

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki
dalgalanmaların önemli ekonomik sonuçları olduğundan akademisyenler ve politika
yapıcılar tarafından sıkça araştırılan konuların başında gelmektedir. Petrol
fiyatlarındaki artışlar petrol ihraç eden ülkeler için iyi olsa da, Türkiye gibi
Petrol yoksunu ve enerji ihtiyacının büyük bölümünü petrol ithal ederek
karşılayan ülkeler için kötüdür. Bu alandaki kapsamlı araştırmalar, küresel ham
petrol fiyatlarının yerel enflasyon üzerindeki etkisinin çok net olmadığını
göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada Genişletilmiş Phillips eğrisi yaklaşımına
dayanarak, doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL yöntemleriyle dünya petrol
fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Türkiye’de tüketici ve üretici fiyatları üzerindeki
asimetrik etkisi incelenmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre petrol
fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların tüketici ve üretici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi
uzun dönemde asimetrikken, kısa dönemde ise simetriktir. Dünya petrol
fiyatlarındaki %100’lük bir artış sonucunda yurtiçi tüketici fiyat endeksi
(CPI) %13,05 üretici fiyat endeksi (PPI) %14,7 artarken,  petrol fiyatlarındaki %100’lük bir azalış
tüketici fiyat endeksini %11,27, üretici fiyat endeksini  %7,24 azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ham Petrol Fiyatları, Asimetrik Geçişkenlik, Enflasyon, NARDL

Kaynakça

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