Impact of Uncertainty Depending on the Economic Growth and Financial Development Level: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 37, 4429 - 4449, 31.05.2021

Ecenur Uğurlu Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.780239

Cited By: 1

Öz

The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been the focus of discussions for many years. On the other hand, the impact of country uncertainty on macroeconomic variables is one of the most popular topics of recent years. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine whether the impact of uncertainty on economic growth and financial development is changed according to the level of financial and economic development. As a sample quarterly time series data between January 1998 and December 2019 for Turkey were employed. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the long and short-term effects of the relevant variables were investigated. According to our results, the adverse effects of uncertainty on economic growth decrease in the short-run as the level of financial development increases. On the other hand, the level of economic growth does not cause any changes on the impact of uncertainty on financial development. Finally, Turkey shows demand-following behavior in the long term, while exhibiting supply-leading behavior in the short term. This finding can be interpreted as Turkey's financial system faces problems to determine the productive investments and funding them in the long-run. The results of our article provide valuable insight to policymakers by showing the role of the development and quality of the financial sector in reducing the negative effects of uncertainty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

uncertainty, financial development, economic growth, ARDL

Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Kalkınma Seviyesine Göre Belirsizliğin Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Finansal kalkınma düzeyi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, uzun yıllardır tartışmaların odağı halindedir. Ülke belirsizliğin makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisi ise son yılların ilgi gören konularının başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye örneklemi kullanılarak, finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme düzeyine göre ülke belirsizliğinin etksi ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Ocak 1998- Aralık 2019 zaman aralığındaki dönem için çeyreklerden oluşan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif modelden (ARDL) faydalanılarak, ilgili değişkenlerin uzun ve kısa dönem etkileri araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlarımıza göre kısa vadede, belirsizliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, finansal kalkınma düzeyi arttıkça azalmaktadır. Öte yandan, ekonomik büyümenin düzeyi, belirsizliğin finansal kalkınmaya etkisi üzerinde her hangi bir değişikliğe neden olmamaktadır. Son olarak, Türkiye uzun vadede talep-takibi davranışı gösterirken, kısa vadede arz-liderliği davranışı sergilemektedir. Bu bulgu, Türkiye’nin finansal sisteminin uzun vadede üretken yatırımları belirlemekte ve fonlamakta sorun yaşadığı şeklinde yorumlanabilir. Makalemizin sonuçları, finansal sektörün gelişmişliğinin ve kalitesinin, belirsizliğin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmadaki rolünü göstererek, politika yapıcılara önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

belirsizlik, finansal kalkınma, ekonomik büyüme, ARDL

Kaynakça

• Ahir, H., Bloom, N., ve Furceri, D. (2018). The world uncertainty index. Mimeo, http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf. Sitesinden alındı.
• Aizenman, J. ve Marion, N.P. (1993). Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment. Economic Letters, 41, 207-210.
• Akel, V., ve Gazel, S. (2014). Döviz kurları ile BIST sanayi endeksi arasındaki eşbütünlelme ilişkisi: Bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 44, 23-41.
• Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review, 40, 1203- 1228.
• Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-443.
• Barro, R.J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 407-443.
• Bui, D. T. (2018). Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: Challenge or opportunity? Eurasian Economic Review, 1–18.
• Caglayan, M., ve Xu, B. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty effects on credit and stability of financial institutions. Bulletin of Economic Research, 71, 342–347.
• Calderon C. A. V., ve Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72, 321-334.
• Chi, Q., ve Li, W. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks’ lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks. China Journal of Accounting Research, 10, 33–50.
• Dickey, D.A., ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 75, 427–431.
• Dixit, A.K. ve Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press.
• Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-511.
• Ghatak, S., ve Siddiki, J. (2001) The use of ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied Statistics, 28, 573–583.
• Gozgor, G., Demir, E., Belas, J., ve Yesilyurt, S. (2019). Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? An empirical investigation. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 63.
• Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of inflation on growth: Some international evidence. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
• Im, K.S., Pesaran,M.H. ve Shin,Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
• Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25, 15–29.
• Karaman, K. K., ve Karaman, S. Y. (2019). How does financial development alter the impact of uncertainty? Journal of Banking and Finance, 102, 33-42.
• King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993 a). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 717-38.
• King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, entrepreneurship, and growth: Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 513-42.
• Laurenceson, J., ve Chai, J.C.H. (2003). Financial Reform and Economic Development in China. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
• Lensink, B. W. (2001). Financial development, uncertainty and economic growth. De Economist, 149, 299-312.
• Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
• Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 681–712.
• McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, USA
• Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174-189.
• Pesaran, M.H. ve Pesaran, B. (1997), Working with Microfit 4.0. Camfit Data Ltd, Cambridge.
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
• Robinson, J. (1952). The generalization of the general theory. Rate of Interest and Other Essays içinde, London: Macmillan.
• Sari, R., Ewig, B. T., ve Soytas, U. (2008) The Relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL Approach. Energy Economics, 30, 2302-2313.
• Schumpeter, J.A. (1961). The theory of economic development. Leipzig: Dunker and Humblot, 1912; çeviri REDVERS OPIE. Oxford University Press.
• Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford University Press, New York
• Stock, J.H., ve Watson, M.W. (2003). Introduction to econometrics. Addison Wesley, Boston.