Uluslararası Çatışmaların Kripto Para Piyasası Üzerindeki Etkisi: İsrail-Filistin Çatışması Örneği

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 67 - 76, 29.03.2024

Zeliha Can Ergün

https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1401735

Öz

Finansal piyasalarda, uluslararası çatışmalar önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. İsrail ve Filistin arasında devam eden çatışma, uluslararası politika ve ekonomi için tehlike arz eden çatışmalardan biridir. Bu çalışma, İsrail-Filistin çatışmasının kripto para piyasası üzerindeki potansiyel etkisini inceleyen ilk çalışmadır. Bu amaçla, 01.03.2023 - 17.10.2023 dönemi için olay çalışması metodolojisi kullanılmış ve analizler için piyasa değerlerine göre ilk on kripto para birimi seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar, İsrail-Filistin çatışmasının belirli kripto para birimlerini (BTC, TRX, SOL ve ETH) etkilemesine rağmen, bir bütün olarak piyasa üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Dahası, etkinin çoğunluğu istatistiksel olarak pozitif olduğu bulunmuştur ve bu sonuç kripto para piyasasının güvenli bir liman olarak görüldüğünün göstergesi olabilir. Ayrıca, anormal getiriler genellikle olaydan önceki günlerde kaydedilmiştir, bu da olayın bazı kripto para birimleri tarafından beklendiğini veya tahmin edildiğini göstermektedir. Yatırımcılar ve finansal analistler, kripto para piyasasını bu gibi belirsiz zamanlarda alternatif bir yatırım aracı olarak değerlendirerek ve bu bulguları portföylerini çeşitlendirmek ve riskten korunma stratejileri oluşturmak için kullanarak bu sonuçlardan faydalanabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savaş, Politik Belirsizlikler, Olay Çalışması, Bitcoin, CCI30, Kripto Paralar, Finansal Piyasalar

The Impact of International Conflicts on the Cryptocurrency Market: The Case of Israel–Palestine Conflict

Öz

In the financial markets, international conflicts have a crucial influence. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine is one of them which poses hazards to international politics and the economy. This study is the first study that examines the potential influence of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the cryptocurrency market. To this end, the event study methodology is used for the period 01.03.2023 – 17.10.2023, and the top ten cryptocurrencies are chosen for analysis based on their market capitalization. The results show that although the Israel-Palestine conflict affected certain cryptocurrencies (including BTC, TRX, SOL, and ETH), it had no statistically significant effect on the market as a whole. Furthermore, the majority of the effect was statistically positive, which may be an indication that the cryptocurrency market is considered a safe haven. Moreover, the abnormal returns were usually recorded in the days before the event, suggesting that the event had been anticipated by some cryptocurrencies. Investors and financial analysts may benefit from these results by considering the cryptocurrency market as an alternative investment tool in these uncertain times and using these findings to diversify their portfolios and create hedging strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

War, Political Uncertainties, Event Study, Bitcoin, CCI30, Cryptocurrencies, Financial Markets

Kaynakça

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