Energy Modeling of Türkiye Road and Rail Transport Towards Net Zero Emissions Target (2025-2050)

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 3, 931 - 946, 25.07.2024

Onur Dönmezçelik , Emre Koçak , H. Hasan Örkcü

https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1212520

Cited By: 4

Öz

Reducing emissions in the transportation sector is one of the most important steps of Türkiye’s 2053 net zero emission target. The most important part of this target, electrification, is expected to form the basic strategy for reducing emissions, especially in road transport modes. Unlike many other sectors, the transportation sector is affected by behavioral movements as well as cost minimization. Therefore, the interaction between policy makers and consumers necessitates a system analysis on the axis of environment and energy. This study focuses on how road and rail transport, which constitutes a significant share of energy consumption in the transportation sector, can be positioned under current and applicable policies for the net zero emission target determined by Türkiye in the 2025-2050 period. For this purpose, scenarios were created using the Energy System Model for Türkiye (EST) designed for Türkiye. The implementation of policies such as the implementation of CO2 standards in the net zero scenario, the prohibition of new entries in internal combustion engine technologies, and the shifting of transportation preferences from road to rail, reveals the importance of the contribution of the transportation sector to the net zero emission target.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Net zero emission, emission reduction, electrification, transport energy policies

Net Sıfır Emisyon Hedefine Doğru Türkiye Kara Yolu ve Demir Yolu Taşımacılığının Enerji Modellemesi (2025-2050)

Öz

Ulaştırma sektöründe emisyonların azaltılması, Türkiye’nin 2053 net sıfır emisyon hedefinin en önemli adımlarından biri olacaktır. Bu hedefin en önemli parçası olacak elektrifikasyonun, özellikle karayolu ulaşım modlarında emisyonların azaltılmasında temel stratejiyi oluşturması beklenmektedir. Diğer birçok sektörden farklı olarak ulaştırma sektörü, maliyet minimizasyonunun yanı sıra davranışsal hareketlerden de etkilenmektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar ve tüketiciler arasındaki etkileşim çevre ve enerji ekseninde bir sistem analizini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin 2025-2050 döneminde belirlediği net sıfır emisyon hedefi için ulaştırma sektöründeki enerji tüketiminin önemli bir payını oluşturan karayolu ve demiryolu taşımacılığının mevcut ve uygulanabilir politikalar altında nasıl konumlanabileceğine odaklanmaktadır. Bu amaçla tasarlanan Türkiye için Enerji Sistem Modeli (EST) kullanılarak senaryolar oluşturulmuştur. Net sıfır senaryosunda CO2 standartlarının uygulanması, içten yanmalı motor teknolojilerinde yeni girişlerin yasaklanması, ulaşım tercihlerinin karayolundan demiryoluna kaydırılması gibi politikalar, ulaştırma sektörünün net sıfır emisyon hedefine sağlayacağı katkının önemini ortaya çıkarmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Net sıfır emisyon, emisyon azaltımı, elektrifikasyon, ulaştırma enerji politikaları

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