Is Middle Income Trap a Threat for BRICS Countries?

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 18 - 24, 24.06.2020

İzzet Taşar , Halil Oğuzhan Ergür , Yavuz Özek

Öz

The middle income trap implies the economies that cannot show breakthrough after reaching a certain per capita income level and that they are stuck in that income level. The middle income trap prevents economies from reaching a higher income level and eliminating development differences with other countries. For this reason, whether countries are at risk of catching a middle income trap and structural measures should be taken to get rid of it for economies of the countries that are exposed to the trap are important. In this study, it is examined whether BRICS economies are in the middle income trap or not. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been used variable. The analysis using the panel data method covers the years 1988-2018. According to the results obtained from the study, it was determined that the BRICS countries examined did not have the risk of middle income trap.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BRICS Countries, Middle Income Trap, Panel Data

Kaynakça

• Acaro, H., & Fak, B. (2016). An Empirical Remark about Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey * Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ayşe n ALTUN ADA. 7–11.
• Agenor P., Canuto O., Jelenic M. (2012) ‘Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps.’ World Bank Policy Research World Bank Other Operational Studies No. 16954, The World Bank
• Agénor, P. R. (2017). Caught in the Middle? the Economics of Middle-Income Traps. Journal of Economic Surveys, 31(3), 771–791. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12175
• Breusch, T., Pagan, A., 1980. The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specification in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud. 47, 239–253.
• Cai, F., (2012), Is There a Middle Income Trap? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China, China & World Economy, 20(1), 49-60
• Eichengreen, B.; Park, D.; Shin, K. (2011). When Fast Growing Economics Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China. NBER Working Paper 16919
• Felipe J., Abdon A., Kumar U. (2012) ‘Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?’ ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 306 and No. 307, Asian Development Bank
• Garret G. (2004) ‘Globalization’s Missing Middle.’ Foreign Affairs, 83, 84–96. Gill I., Kharas H. (2007) ‘An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth.’ The World Bank
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2016). The middle-income trap: Definitions, theories and countries concerned - A literature survey. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(4), 507–538. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-016-0014-0
• Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. (2005). Panel LM unit‐root tests with level shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 393-419.
• Jankowska A., Nagengast A., Ramon J. (2012) ‘The Product Space and the Middle-income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences.’ OECD Development Centre Policy Insights No. 311, OECD.
• Kanchoochat, V., Intarakumnerd, P. (2014), “Tigers Trapped: Tracing the Middle-income Trap through the East and Southeast Asian Experience”, Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, No. 04.
• Kesgingöz, H., & Dilek, S. (2016). Middle Income Trap and Turkey. The Empirical Economics Letters, 15(7).
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16.
• Paper, W. (2015). The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten. (August).
• Pesaran, Hasem, M., (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Working Paper No:0435, University of Cambridge.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T., 2008. A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross section independence. Econometrics Journal 11, 105–127.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pruchnik, K., & Zowczak, J. (2017). Middle-Income Trap: Review of the Conceptual Framework. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/publications/middle-income-trap-mit-review-conceptual-framework
• Robertson, P. E., & Ye, L. (2013). On the existence of a middle income trap. University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper, No: 13.12.
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
• Tho, T.V. (2013). The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. VNU Journal of Economics and Business 29(2): 107-128.
• Traps, A. M. G. (2012). Economic Premise. 1–7.
• Tugcu, C. T. (2015). How to escape the middle income trap: international evidence from a binary dependent variable model. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 22(1), 49–56.
• Xon, J.G.D., Hoong, L.Y., Ting, L.T., Chin, T.K. & Kuan, W.L. (2013), “Middle-income Trap: From the Perspective of Economic Growth”, University Tunku Abdul Rahman.
• Xue, J.; Umali, C.L.; Tetsuya, F.; Ohara, A.; Wang, J. (2014). Economic Growth and Middle Income Trap: An international comparative research based on field survey. The Research Institute of Southeast Asia, Faculty of Economics, Nagasaki University Departmental Bulletin Paper 46: 1-145.