Binalarda Deprem Hasar Tahmini İçin Bulanık Mantık Kullanımı, Avcılar Ambarlı Mahallesi Örneği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 253 - 268, 31.12.2023

Suleiman Khatrush , Gül Yücel

https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1217421

Öz

İstanbul Avcılar İlçesi 17 Ağustos Marmara depremi merkez üssüne benzer mesafe ve doğrultudaki komşu ilçelere göre çok daha fazla hasar görmüştür. Depremin olduğu tarihte toplam bina sayısı 1338 olan Avcılar ilçesi Ambarlı Mahallesinde deprem sonrası 505 binada hasar tespiti yapılmıştır. Toplam bina sayısının %16,59’unu oluşturan 222 binanın farklı düzeylerde hasar gördüğü tespit edilmiştir. Binalarda depremden kaynaklanan hasar, özellikle daha önce önemli ölçüde tehlikeye maruz kalmış alanlar için deprem riski kavramının önemli bir unsurudur. Bu nedenle, belirli seviyelerde belirsizlik içeren nispeten karmaşık koşullara sahip bu tür durumlar için, basit ama etkili araçların kullanıldığı araştırmalar, bu tür olay ve sonuçlarının daha iyi anlaşılmasını sağlayabilir. Çalışmada, bulanık mantık yöntemi kullanılarak yer hareketi, zemin durumu, bina kat sayısı ve bina yaşı olmak üzere dört parametrenin dikkate alındığı bir model geliştirilmiştir. Hasar düzeyi analiz sonuçlarından elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada geliştirilen modelin uygulanabilirliği, İstanbul Avcılar İlçesi Ambarlı Mahallesi'ndeki 1999 Marmara Depremi sonrası hasar gören betonarme bina veri tabanı kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Model sonuçları, kaydedilmiş hasar dağılımı ile karşılaştırıldığında bölgedeki binaların hasar dağılımını makul bir şekilde ortaya koyduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar ayrıca, modelin mevcut betonarme binaların olası büyük depremlere karşı hasar dağılımını tahmin etme özelliğinde olduğunu da göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bulanık Mantık, Deprem, Risk, Hasar, Ambarlı

Seismic Damage Prediction of Buildings Using Fuzzy Logic, The Case of Ambarlı Neighborhood at Avcılar

Öz

The Kocaeli 1999 earthquake caused great damage of buildings in Istanbul, Avcılar district was the most affected region than any other nearby districts even though they are located further near to the epicenter. In Ambarlı Neighborhood at Avcılar, where the total number of buildings at the time of earthquake was 1338, damage assessment work was carried out on a total of 505 buildings. As a result, 222 buildings were categorized damaged to varying degrees which forms 16.59% of the total buildings in the area. Damage due to an earthquake is an important element of the earthquake risk concept, especially for areas previously suffered critical hazard. Therefore, for such situations with relatively complicated condition involving certain degrees of uncertainty, further investigations using simple but effective tools can lead to better understanding of such events and the consequences. In this study, a model has been developed using Fuzzy Logic method considering four parameters; Ground motion, ground condition, building number of floors and building age. The degree of damage is obtained as a result of the analysis. A post-earthquake damage database of reinforced concrete buildings within a selected zone at Ambarlı neighborhood due to 1999 Kocaeli earthquake has been used to investigate the applicability of the proposed method. The model results were found to reasonably presenting the distribution of damage of the buildings in the area when compared with the recorded damage distribution. The results also show that the model is capable of predicting damage distribution of the existing reinforced concrete buildings against possible earthquakes of large magnitude.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fuzzy Logic, Earthquake, Risk, Damage, Ambarlı

Kaynakça

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