The Role of Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers in Global Trade Openness: An Empirical Analysis

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 1 - 32, 30.04.2022

Orhan Şanlı

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.951577

Öz

Commercial protectionism consists of two parts. The first is traditional protectionism, the second is the new protectionism. Tradational protectionism have been a frequently used policy since mercantilist economics. New protectionism emerged after the 1970s.
After the 2008 Crisis, economic nationalism and protectionism started to rise again. The rising trend of protectionism has made the new protectionism more popular. After this new change, the currency wars started first. After the currency wars, BREXIT took place and UK left the EU. Finally, in 2018, trade wars started. Trade and currency wars slowed the growth of the global economy and trade. Thus, a transformation process from neoliberalism to protectionism started after the 2008 Crisis.
In this study, the effect of two-way protectionism in global trade openness is examined. Annual data were used for the period 1980-2019. Tariffs, non-tariff measures and dollar index have been accepted as protectionist practices. For this purpose, ARDL boundary test and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test were performed. Analysis results are in line with expectations. According to the analysis results, tariffs, non-tariff measures and dollar index negatively affect the trade openness. GDP, on the other hand, positively affects the trade openness. Although new protectionist practices have increased in recent years, tariff practices affect global trade more. As a result, traditional protectionism and new protectionism practices are important variables that affect the global trade opennes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tariffs, Non-Tariff Barriers, New Protectionism, Neoliberalism, ARDL and Toda-Yamamoto Test

Tarife ve Tarife Dışı Engellerin Küresel Ticari Açıklıktaki Rolü: Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

Ticarette korumacılık iki kısımdan oluşmaktadır. Birincisi geleneksel korumacılık, ikincisi yeni korumacılıktır. Geleneksel korumacılık, merkantilist iktisattan beri sıklıkla kullanılan bir politika olmuştur. Yeni korumacılık ise 1970'lerden sonra ortaya çıkmıştır.
2008 Krizinden sonra ekonomik milliyetçilik ve korumacılık yeniden yükselmeye başlamıştır. Yükselen korumacılık eğilimi, yeni korumacılığı daha popüler hale getirmiştir. Bu yeni değişiklikten sonra önce kur savaşları başladı. Kur savaşlarının ardından BREXIT gerçekleşti ve İngiltere AB'den ayrıldı. Nihayet 2018 yılında ticaret savaşları başlamıştır. Ticaret ve kur savaşları, küresel ekonominin ve ticaretin büyümesini yavaşlatmıştır. Böylece 2008 Krizinden sonra neoliberalizmden korumacılığa dönüşüm süreci başlamıştır.
Bu çalışmada iki yönlü korumacılığın küresel ticari açıklıktaki etkisi incelenmiştir. 1980-2019 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Tarifeler, tarife dışı önlemler ve dolar endeksi korumacı uygulamalar olarak kabul edilmiştir. Bu amaçla ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları beklentilerle uyumludur. Analiz sonuçlarına göre tarifeler, tarife dışı önlemler ve dolar endeksi ticaretin açıklığını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. GSYİH ise ticari açıklığı olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. Son yıllarda yeni korumacı uygulamalar artsa da tarife uygulamaları küresel ticareti daha fazla etkilemektedir. Sonuç olarak, geleneksel korumacılık ve yeni korumacılık uygulamaları küresel ticari açıklığı etkileyen önemli değişkenlerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tarifeler, Tarife Dışı Engeller, Yeni Korumacılık, Neoliberalizm, ARDL ve Toda-Yamamoto Testi

Kaynakça

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