Asya Ülkelerinde Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 19 - 48, 31.12.2021

Farid Alasgarlı , Taner Sekmen

Öz

Ekonomik yapıda fon transferinin efektif şekilde sağlanması için finansal araç ve kurumların gelişmesi yani, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin yüksek olması ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması ve sürdürülebilir olması açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi 20 Asya ülkesi için 1998-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri ve panel VAR modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Finansal gelişme göstergeleri olarak geniş paranın GSYH’ya oranının büyüme oranı, yurt içi kredilerin GSYH’ya oranının büyüme oranı ve finansal gelişme endeksinin büyüme oranı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi sonuçlarına uygun olarak ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ile serilerin durağanlıkları test edildikten sonra Panel VAR modeline dayanan panel Granger nedensellik testi aracılığıyla seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve etki-tepki fonksiyonu aracılığıyla da değişkenler arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerinde anlamlı etkileri olduğunu, bu etkinin ekonomik büyüme için pozitif ve artırıcı, enflasyon için ise düşürücü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle finansal gelişme düzeyinin artmasının ekonomik büyümeye ve enflasyonun düşürülmesine olumlu etki etmesi politika yapıcıları için finansal gelişme düzeyini artırıcı politikaların uygulanmasını teşvik eder niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal gelişme, Ekonomik büyüme, Enflasyon, Asya ülkeleri, Panel VAR Modeli

The Relationship Between Financial Development, Economic Growth and Inflation in Asian Countries

Öz

In order to ensure effective fund transfer in the economic structure, the development of financial instruments and institutions, that is, the high level of financial development, is of great importance in terms of ensuring economic growth and sustainability. In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth and inflation was examined for 20 Asian countries using annual data for the period 1998-2018 and panel VAR model. As financial development indicators, the growth rate of the ratio of large money to GDP, the growth rate of the ratio of domestic loans to GDP and the growth rate of the financial development index were used. After testing the stationarity of the series with the second generation panel unit root tests in accordance with the results of the cross-sectional dependency test, the causality relationship between the series was determined by the panel Granger causality test based on the Panel VAR model, and the relationship between the variables was examined through the impulse-response function. The results of econometric analysis reveal that financial development has significant effects on economic growth and inflation, and this effect is positive and increasing for economic growth and decreasing for inflation. In particular, the positive effect of the increase in the level of financial development on economic growth and reducing inflation encourages policy makers to implement policies that increase the level of financial development.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial development, Economic growth, Inflation, Asian countries, Panel VAR Model

Kaynakça

• Ahmed, A. D. (2013), “Effects of financial liberalization on financial market development and economic performance of the SSA region: An empirical assessment”, Economic Modelling, C: 30, No: 2013, ss. 261-273.
• Alimi, R. S. (2014), “DOLS Cointegration Vector Estimation of the Effect of Inflationand Financial Deepening on Output Growth in Nigeria”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, C: 2014, No: 57182, ss. 1-15.
• Alrabadi, D. W. H. ve Kharabsheh, B.A. (2016), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: The Case of Jordan”, Journal of Accounting and Finance, C: 16, No: 6, ss. 158-166.
• Andrews, D. W. (2005), “Cross‐section regression with common shocks”, Econometrica, C: 73, No: 5, ss. 1551-1585.
• Andrews, D., W. ve Lu, B. (2001), “Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models”, Journal of econometrics, C:101, No:1, ss. 123-164.
• Apergis, N. Filippidis, I. ve Economidou, C. (2007), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis”, Review of World Economics, C: 143, No: 1, ss. 179–198.
• Ardıç, O. P. ve Damar, E. (2006), “Financial Sector Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, C: 2006, No:4077, ss. 1-25.
• Asongu, S. A. (2014), “Correcting Inflation with Financial DynamicFundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?”, Journal of African Business, C: 15, No: 1, ss. 64-73.
• Bai, J. ve Ng, S. (2004), “A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration”, Econometrica, C: 72, No: 4, ss. 1127-1177.
• Bakang, M. L.N. (2015), “Effects Of Fınancıal Deepenıng On Economıc Growth In Kenya”, International Journal of Business and Commerce, C: 4, No: 7, ss. 1-50.
• Baltagi, B. H. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Birleşik Krallık.
• Bandura, W. N. (2020), “Inflation and Finance-Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Journal of African Business, C: 2020, ss. 1-13.
• Bennaceur, S. ve Ghazouani, S. (2005), “Does Inflation Impact on Financial Sector Performance in the MENA Region?”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, C: 3, No: 3, ss. 219-229.
• Bittencourt, M. (2011), “Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil”, Economic Modelling, C: 28, No: 1-2, ss. 91-99.
• Boyd, J. H. Levine, R. ve Smith, B. D. (1996), “Inflation and Financial Market Performance”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department, C: 9617, No: 1996, ss. 1-39.
• Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test And İts Applications To Model Specification İn Econometrics”, The review of economic studies, C: 47, No: 1, ss. 239-253.
• Calderon, C, Liu, L. (2003), “The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth”, Journal of Development Economics, C: 72, No: 1, ss. 321–334.
• Chimobi, O. P. (2010), “Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria”, Journal of Sustainable Development, C: 3, No: 2, 159-166.
• Ghildiyal, V. Pokhriyal, A. K. ve Mohan, A. (2015), “Impact Of Financial Deepening On Economic Growth In Indian Perspective: ARDL Bound Testing Approach To Cointegration”, Asian Development Policy Review, C: 3, No: 3, ss. 49-60.
• Granger, C. W. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models And Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, C: 37, No: 3, ss. 424-438.
• Gries, T. Kraft, M. ve Meierrieks, D. (2011), “Financial deepening, tradeopenness and economic growth inLatin America and the Caribbean”, Applied Economics, C: 43, No: 30, s. 4729-4739.
• Hamdi, H. Sbia, R. ve Taş, B. K. O. (2014), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries”, International Economic Journal, C: 28, No: 3, ss. 459-473.
• Hasan, I. Wachtel, P. ve Zhou, M. (2009), Institutional development, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China, Journal of Banking & Finance, C: 33, No: 1, ss. 157-170.
• Hasanov, F. ve Huseynov, F. (2013), “Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan”, International Review of Economics & Finance, C: 27, No: 2013, ss. 597-610.
• Huang, Y. ve Singh, R. (2011), “Financial Deepening, Property Rights and Poverty: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa”, IMF Working Papers, C:11, No: 196, ss. 1-31.
• Keho, Y. (2010), “Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth: Does Inflation Matter? Time Series Evidence from the UEMOA Countries”, International Economic Journal, C: 24, No: 3, ss. 343-355.
• Khan, M. S. Senhadji, A. S. ve Smith, B. D. (2006), “Inflation and Financial Depth”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, C: 10, No: 2, ss. 165-182.
• Kim, D. H. ve Lin, S. C. (2010), “Dynamic Relationship Between İnflation And Financial Development”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, C: 14, No: 3, ss. 343-364.
• Lee, C. C. ve Wong, S. Y. (2005), “Inflationary Threshold Effects In The Relationshıp Between Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From Taiwan And Japan”, Journal Of Economic Development, C: 30, No: 1, ss. 49-69.
• Lu, X. Guo, K. Dong, Z. Wang, X. (2017), “Financial development and relationshipevolvement among money supply, economicgrowth and inflation: a comparative study fromthe U.S. and China”, Applied Economics, C: 49, No: 10, ss. 1032-1045.
• Lyoboyi, M. (2013), “Bank and Non‐Bank Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Experience (1981–2010)”, Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, C: 42, No: 3, ss. 247-272.
• Marashdeh, H. A. ve Al-Malkawi, H. A. (2014), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia”, Journal of Emerging Market Finance, C: 13, No: 2, ss. 139–154.
• McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.
• Özgen, F. B. ve Güloglu, B. (2004), “Türkiye'de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi”, METU Studies in Development, C: 31, No:1, ss. 93-114.
• Öztürk, S. Çoltu, S. (2018), “Finansal Derinleşmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi 2001-2016 Yılları Türkiye Örneği”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, C: 17, No: 4, ss. 1516-1535.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests For Cross Section Dependence İn Panels”, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), C: 2004, No: 1240, ss. 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, C: 22, No: 2, ss. 265–312.
• Pesaran, M. H. Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008), “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test Of Error Cross‐Section İndependence”, The Econometrics Journal, C: 11, No: 1, ss. 105-127.
• Pradhan, R. P. (2010), “Financial Deepening, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Are They Cointegrated”, International Journal of Financial Research, C: 1, No: 1, ss. 37-43.
• Rousseau, P. L. ve Wachtel, P. (2002), “Inflation Thresholds And The Finance–Growth Nexus”, Journal of International Money and Finance, C: 21, No: 6, ss. 777-793.
• Rousseau, P., L. ve Yılmazkuday, H. (2009), “Inflation, Financial Development And Growth: A Trilateral Analysis”, Economic System, C: 33, No: 4, ss. 310-324.
• Rousseau., P., L. ve Wachtel, P. (2011), “What Is Happenıng To The Impact Of Fınancıal Deepenıng On Economıc Growth?”, Economic Inquiry, C: 49, No: 1, ss. 276-288.
• Shaw, E., S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford University Press, New York.
• Sugiyanto, C. ve Yolanda, Z. (2020), “The Effect Of Financial Deepening On Economic Growth, Inequality, And Poverty: Evidence From 73 Countries”, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, C: 15, No: 2, ss. 15-27.
• Tan, K. G. Gopalan, S. ve Le, P. A. N. (2017), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Transition Economies of Southeast Asia: A Geweke Causality Analysis”, Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, C: 20, No: 3, ss. 1-25.
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul.
• Wang, A. (2019), “An empirical study on the relationship between China’s financial development and economic growth based on sensor technology”, EURASIP Journal On Wireless Communiations And Networking, C: 2019, No: 1, ss. 1-6.
• Williams, K. (2019), “Do political institutions improve the diminishing effect of financial deepening on growth? Evidence from developing countries”, Journal of Economics and Business, C: 103, No: 2019, ss. 13-24.
• Yao, W. Wu, H. ve Kinugasa, T. (2015), “Financial Deepening, Asset Price Inflation, and Economic Convergence: Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Experience”, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, C: 51, No: 1, ss. 275-284.