Türkiye’de Bölgesel İşsizlik: Mekansal Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 47 - 67, 31.10.2016

Hacer Simay Karaalp Orhan , Ferda Esin Gülel

Öz

İşsizlik
oranlarındaki büyük bölgesel farklılıklar, özellikle ülke içinde uzun süredir
devam eden bölgesel gelişme farklarının kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye
iki büyük bölgesel ekonomik sorunla mücadele etmektedir; kendi içinde başlı
başına büyük bir sorun olan bölgesel gelişmişlik farklılıkları ve bölgeler
arasındaki işsizlik oranı farklılıkları. Türkiye'deki bölgesel gelişmişlik
farklılıkları ve bölgesel işsizlik farklılıklar oldukça geniş boyutlu ve
yıllardır devam eden bir sorundur. Bu çalışmada, mekansal panel veri tekniği
kullanılarak, 2008-2012 dönemi için Türkiye’deki bölgesel işsizlik
farklılıklarını belirleyen faktörler ve bununla birlikte bölgeler arasındaki
mekansal etkileşimin varlığı incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, erkeklerin
işgücüne katılma oranı, genç nüfusun payı, istihdamda tarım sektörünün payı ve
eğitim düzeyi ile bölgesel işsizlik oranı arasında anlamlı bir ilişki
bulunmuştur. Bunla birlikte, işsizlik oranlarının bölgelerarası dağılımında
pozitif bir mekansal ilişki bulunmuştur. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bölgesel işsizlik, panel veri, mekansal analiz, Türkiye

Regional Unemployment in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis

Öz

In particular, the prevalence of large
regional disparities in unemployment rates stems from longstanding regional
development disparities within a country. Turkey
struggles against two major regional economic problems: regional development
disparities, which is a major issue, and regional inequalities in unemployment.
In Turkey, regional development differences and regional disparities in
unemployment rates are fairly large and persistent. By using a spatial panel
data technique, this paper analyzes the determinants of Turkish regional
unemployment disparities for the period from 2008 to 2012 and whether the
spatial interaction exists among Turkish regions. The findings show that a
significant relationship is found among the regional unemployment rate and male
labor force participation rate, the share of young population, and the share of
agriculture in employment and educational attainment. In addition, a positive
spatial correlation is found among
the regional distribution of unemployment rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Regional unemployment, panel data, spatial analyses, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Anselin, L. (1988), “Lagrange Multiplier Test Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity”, Geographical Analysis, 20(1), 1-17.
• Anselin, L.; Le Gallo, J. and H. Jayet (2006), Spatial Panel Econometrics, In The Econometrics of Panel Data, Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Theory and Practice, L. Matyas, P. Sevestre (Eds). 3rd edn (pp. 901-969), Kluwer Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
• Aragon, Y.; Haughton, D., J. Haughton, E. Leconte, E. Malin, A. Ruiz-Gazen and C. Thomas-Agnan (2003), “Explaining the Pattern of Regional Unemployment: The Case of the Midi-Pyrénées Region”, Papers in Regional Science, 82(2),155-74.
• Badinger, H. and T. Url (2002), “Determinants of Regional Unemployment: Some Evidence from Austria, Regional Studies”, 36(9), 977-988.
• Baltagi, B. H. (2008), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 4th ed. New York: Wiley.
• Bera, A. and M. Yoon (1993), “Specification Testing with Locally Misspecified Alternatives”, Econometric Theory, 9(4), 649-658.
• Bildirici, M.; Ersin, Ö.Ö., C. Türkmen and Y. Yalçınkaya (2012), “The Persistence Effect of Unemployment Turkey: An Analysis of the 1980-2010 Period”, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 1(3), 22-32.
• Boratav K.; Türel, O. and E. Yeldan (1994), “Distributional Dynamics in Turkey under Structural Adjustment of the 1980’s”, New Perspectives on Turkey, 11, 43-69.
• Cracolici, M. F.; Cuffaro, M. and P. Nijkamp (2009), “A Spatial Analysis on Italian Unemployment Differences. Statistical Methods and Applications”, 18(2), 275-291.
• Doğruel, F. and Y. Özerkek (2011), “Sectoral Composition and Unemployment in Turkey”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 13, 1-28.
• Elhorst, J. P. (2003), “The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(5), 709-740.
• Ercan, H. (2007), “Youth Unemployment in Turkey”, International Labour Office: Ankara.
• EUROSTAT (2013a), Unemployment Rates by Sex, Age and Nationality (%), http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=lfsa_urganandlang=en], (27.01.2014).
• EUROSTAT (2013b), Labor Markets at Regional Level, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Labour_markets_at_regional_level#Changes_in_employment_rates_from_2008_to_2011, (27.01.2014).
• EUROSTAT (2013c), Regional Statistics by NUTS Classification, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/region_cities/regional_statistics/data/database, (27.01.2014).
• Filiztekin, A. (2009), “Regional Unemployment in Turkey”, Papers in Regional Science, 88(4), 863-879.
• Gözgör, G. (2012), “Hysteresis in Regional Unemployment Rates in Turkey”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(9), 175-181.
• Gözgör, G. (2013), “Unemployment Persistence and Inflation Convergence: Evidence from Regions of Turkey”, Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 13, 55-64.
• Harris, J. and M. Todaro (1970), “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis”, American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-142.
• Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
• Köse, S. and S. Güneş (2013), “Regional Disparities in Turkish Labor Market: Persistency and Educational Attainments”, Social Sciences Journal, 1(1), 1-19.
• López-Bazo, E.; Del Barrio, T. and M. Artis (2002), “The Regional Distribution of Spanish Unemployment: A Spatial Analysis”, Papers in Regional Science, 81(3), 365-389.
• López-Bazo, E.; Del Thomás, B. and M. Artis (2005), “Geographical Distribution of Unemployment in Spain”, Regional Studies, 39(3), 305-318.
• López-Bazo, E., E. Motellón (2013), “The Regional Distribution of Unemployment: What Do Micro-Data Tell Us?”, Papers in Regional Science, 92(2), 383-405.
• Lottmann, F. (2012), “Explaining Regional Unemployment Differences in Germany: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis”, SFB 649 Discussion Papers, No: SFB649DP2012-026, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
• Marelli, E., R. Patuelli and M. Signorelli (2012), “Regional Unemployment in the EU Before and After the Global Crisis”, Post-Communist Economies, 24(2), 155-175.
• Marston, S. (1985), “Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(1), 57-79.
• Martin, R. (1997), “Regional Unemployment Disparities and Their Dynamics”, Regional Studies, 31(3), 237-252.
• Molho I. (1995), “Spatial Autocorrelation in British Unemployment”, Journal of Regional Science, 35(4), 641-658.
• Niebuhr, A. (2003), “Spatial Interaction and Regional Unemployment in Europe”, European Journal of Spatial Development, 5, 1-26.
• Novotny. J., V. Nosek (2012), “Comparison of Regional Inequality in Unemployment Among Four Central European Countries: An Inferential Approach”, Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 5(2), 95-101.
• OECD (2005), “Chapter 2 How Persistent are Regional Disparities in Employment? In OECD Employment Outlook”, OECD Publishing: Paris, http://www.oecd.org/els/emp/36780856.pdf ], (25.01.2014).
• OECD (2013), Regional Unemployment in OECD Countries1, http://www.oecd.org/els/emp/3888243.pdf , (25.01.2014).
• Overman, Hg., D. Puga (2002), “Unemployment Clusters Across Europe’s Regions and Countries. Economic Policy”, 17(34), 117-147.
• Özar, S., G. Günlük-Senesen (1998), “Determinants of Female (Non) Participation in The Urban Labor Force in Turkey”, METU Studies in Development, 25(2), 311-328.
• Patuelli, R. (2007), “Regional Labour Markets in Germany: Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Disparities and Network Structures”, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis. Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
• Patuelli, R.; SchanneGriffith, D. A. and P. Nijkamp (2012), “Persistence of Regional Unemployment: Application of a Spatial Filtering Approach to Local Labor Markets in Germany”, Journal of Regional Science, 52(2), 300-323.
• Reeves, T. (2006), Regional Development in the EU and Turkey, Regional Development and Governance Symposium, Economic Policy Research Institute and Middle East Technical University, 7-8 September, Ankara.
• Senses, F. (1997), “Structural Adjustment Policies and Employment in Turkey”, New Perspectives on Turkey, 15, 65-93.
• Tansel, A. (2002), “Economic Development and Female Labor Force Participation in Turkey: Time-Series Evidence and Cross-Province Estimates”, Middle East Technical University, ERC Working Papers in Economics 01/05.
• Taylor, J., S. Bradley, (1997), “Unemployment in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Disparities in Germany, Italy and the UK”, Kyklos, 50(2), 221-245.
• Tunalı, I. (1997), “To Work or Not to Work: An Examination of Female Labor Force Participation Rates in Urban Turkey”, In Proceedings of the 4th Annual ERF Conference held in Beirut.
• TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) (2014), Household Labour Force Statistics, Labour Force Status by Educational Level, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007, (05.01.2014).
• Wolleb, G., and A. Daraio (2009), Regional Challenges in The Perspective of 2020, Background Paper On: New Social Risks, European Commission, ISMERI EUROPA, May.
• WORLD BANK (2013), Unemployment, Youth Total (% of Total Labor Force Ages 15-24), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS/countries/1W-EU-TR?display=graph, (24.12.2013).