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CYCLICAL OUTPUT - UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: OKUN’S LAW PARAMETER FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 - 14, 01.03.2017

Öz

The aim of this paper is
twofold; to analyze the Okun’s law for Turkey and whether there exists a
structural change in the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment
after 2001 financial and economic crisis by using quarterly data from 1993 to
end of 2008. Based on its “gap” specification and using different filtering
methods-HP filter 1997,  Baxter-King
1995, and Unobserved Component Model,-different than the previous literature,
the results show that there exists significant inverse relationship between
unemployment and output for Turkey. However, the quantitative value of Okun’s coefficient
is relatively bigger than the developed countries’ coefficient reported by
original papers for whole period. Also, the claim about the Turkish cyclical
output and unemployment faced structural change after 2001 crisis did not find
any empirical support.

Kaynakça

  • Attfield, C. L.F., Silverstone, B.,(1998) “Okun's Law, Cointegration And Gap Variables”, Journal Of Macroeconomics, Volume 20, Issue 3, Summer 1998, Pages 625-637
  • Ball, L. M., Leigh, D., and P. Loungani, (2013), “Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?” NBER Working Paper, No. 18668
  • BARIŞIK, S., ÇEVİK, E. İ., and N.K.ÇEVİK, (2010), “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 159, Temmuz-Aralık 2010
  • Baxter M., and King R., (1995), “Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band Pass filters for economic time series”, NBER, Working Paper 5022
  • Bernanke, B.S., (2003) “The Jobless Recovery”, Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference at Pittsburgh
  • Cazes, S., Sher V., and F. Al-Hussami (2012). “Diverging trends in unemployment in the United States and Europe: Evidence from Okun’s law and the global financial crisis.” Employment Working Papers, ILO.
  • Ceylan, S., B. Y. Şahin (2010), “İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Asimetri”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, C. 11, Sayı: 2.
  • Cuerasma, C. J.,(2003), “Okun’s Law Revisited”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(4), 439-451
  • Daly, M. C., Fernald, J. G., Jordà, Ò., and F. Nechio, (2014), “Output and Unemployment Dynamics”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, Working Paper: 2013-32.
  • French, Mark., (2001), “Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework”, Fed Publications.
  • Galí, J., Smets, F., and R. Wouters (2012), “Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation.” NBER Working Paper, No. 18085.
  • Gordon, R. J. (2010), “Okun’s Law and Productivity Innovations.”, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 11-15. 2010.
  • Harris, R. and Silverstone, B., (2000), “Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun’s Law”, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 2/00, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • Harris, R. and Silverstone, B., (2001), “Testing For Asymmetry İn Okun's Law: A Cross−Country Comparison”, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 2 pp. 1−13
  • Harvey, A.C., and S.J Koopman, (2000), “Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models”, Econometrics Journal, 3, 84-107.
  • Harvey, A.C., S. J. Koopman, and M. Riani (1997), “The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15: 354-68.
  • Huang, H. and Chang, Y., (2005), “Investigating Okun’s Law by the Structural Break with Threshold Approach: Evidence from Canada”, The Manchester School, 75(5), 599-611
  • IMF (2010), “Unemployment Dynamics in Recessions and Recoveries,” World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2010.
  • Lee, J., (2000), “The Robustness Of Okun's Law: Evidence From OECD Countries”, Journal Of Macroeconomics, Volume 22, Issue 2, Spring 2000, Pages 331-356
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2012), Principles of Macroeconomics, 6th edition.
  • McKinsey Global Institute (2011), “An Economy That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future”, June 2011 report.
  • Meyer, B., and M. Tasci, (2012), “An unstable Okun’s Law, not the best rule of thumb.” Economic Commentary June 7 (2012).
  • Moosa, I.A., (1997), “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient”, Journal Of Comparatıve Economıcs 24, 335–356, Article No. Je971433
  • Okun, A. M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance.” Reprinted as Cowles Foundation Paper 190.
  • Owyang, M. T., and T. Sekhposyan, (2012), “Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 94, no. 5, 399-418.
  • Perman, R. And Tavera, C. (2005), “A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe”, Applied Economics, Volume 37, Issue 21, pages 2501-2513
  • Silvapulle, P., Moosa, I. A. and Silvapulle, M.J., (2004) “Asymmetry in Okun’s Law”, Canadian Journal of Economics / Reveu canadienne d’Economique, Vol.37, No.2
  • Villaverde, J. and Adolfo, M., (2008) “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980-2004 Regional Evidence”, Journal of Policy Modeling 31, pp. 289-297
  • Yüceol, H.M., (2006), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Dinamikleri”, İktisat İşletme Ve Finans, Vol. 21(243), Pages 81-95

CYCLICAL OUTPUT - UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: OKUN’S LAW PARAMETER FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 - 14, 01.03.2017

Öz

The aim of this paper is
twofold; to analyze the Okun’s law for Turkey and whether there exists a
structural change in the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment
after 2001 financial and economic crisis by using quarterly data from 1993 to
end of 2008. Based on its “gap” specification and using different filtering
methods-HP filter 1997,  Baxter-King
1995, and Unobserved Component Model,-different than the previous literature,
the results show that there exists significant inverse relationship between
unemployment and output for Turkey. However, the quantitative value of Okun’s coefficient
is relatively bigger than the developed countries’ coefficient reported by
original papers for whole period. Also, the claim about the Turkish cyclical
output and unemployment faced structural change after 2001 crisis did not find
any empirical support.

Kaynakça

  • Attfield, C. L.F., Silverstone, B.,(1998) “Okun's Law, Cointegration And Gap Variables”, Journal Of Macroeconomics, Volume 20, Issue 3, Summer 1998, Pages 625-637
  • Ball, L. M., Leigh, D., and P. Loungani, (2013), “Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?” NBER Working Paper, No. 18668
  • BARIŞIK, S., ÇEVİK, E. İ., and N.K.ÇEVİK, (2010), “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 159, Temmuz-Aralık 2010
  • Baxter M., and King R., (1995), “Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band Pass filters for economic time series”, NBER, Working Paper 5022
  • Bernanke, B.S., (2003) “The Jobless Recovery”, Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference at Pittsburgh
  • Cazes, S., Sher V., and F. Al-Hussami (2012). “Diverging trends in unemployment in the United States and Europe: Evidence from Okun’s law and the global financial crisis.” Employment Working Papers, ILO.
  • Ceylan, S., B. Y. Şahin (2010), “İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinde Asimetri”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, C. 11, Sayı: 2.
  • Cuerasma, C. J.,(2003), “Okun’s Law Revisited”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(4), 439-451
  • Daly, M. C., Fernald, J. G., Jordà, Ò., and F. Nechio, (2014), “Output and Unemployment Dynamics”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, Working Paper: 2013-32.
  • French, Mark., (2001), “Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework”, Fed Publications.
  • Galí, J., Smets, F., and R. Wouters (2012), “Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation.” NBER Working Paper, No. 18085.
  • Gordon, R. J. (2010), “Okun’s Law and Productivity Innovations.”, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 11-15. 2010.
  • Harris, R. and Silverstone, B., (2000), “Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun’s Law”, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 2/00, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • Harris, R. and Silverstone, B., (2001), “Testing For Asymmetry İn Okun's Law: A Cross−Country Comparison”, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 2 pp. 1−13
  • Harvey, A.C., and S.J Koopman, (2000), “Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models”, Econometrics Journal, 3, 84-107.
  • Harvey, A.C., S. J. Koopman, and M. Riani (1997), “The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15: 354-68.
  • Huang, H. and Chang, Y., (2005), “Investigating Okun’s Law by the Structural Break with Threshold Approach: Evidence from Canada”, The Manchester School, 75(5), 599-611
  • IMF (2010), “Unemployment Dynamics in Recessions and Recoveries,” World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April 2010.
  • Lee, J., (2000), “The Robustness Of Okun's Law: Evidence From OECD Countries”, Journal Of Macroeconomics, Volume 22, Issue 2, Spring 2000, Pages 331-356
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2012), Principles of Macroeconomics, 6th edition.
  • McKinsey Global Institute (2011), “An Economy That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future”, June 2011 report.
  • Meyer, B., and M. Tasci, (2012), “An unstable Okun’s Law, not the best rule of thumb.” Economic Commentary June 7 (2012).
  • Moosa, I.A., (1997), “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient”, Journal Of Comparatıve Economıcs 24, 335–356, Article No. Je971433
  • Okun, A. M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance.” Reprinted as Cowles Foundation Paper 190.
  • Owyang, M. T., and T. Sekhposyan, (2012), “Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 94, no. 5, 399-418.
  • Perman, R. And Tavera, C. (2005), “A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe”, Applied Economics, Volume 37, Issue 21, pages 2501-2513
  • Silvapulle, P., Moosa, I. A. and Silvapulle, M.J., (2004) “Asymmetry in Okun’s Law”, Canadian Journal of Economics / Reveu canadienne d’Economique, Vol.37, No.2
  • Villaverde, J. and Adolfo, M., (2008) “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980-2004 Regional Evidence”, Journal of Policy Modeling 31, pp. 289-297
  • Yüceol, H.M., (2006), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Dinamikleri”, İktisat İşletme Ve Finans, Vol. 21(243), Pages 81-95
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Tiryaki

Obid Khakimov Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mart 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Tiryaki, A., & Khakimov, O. (2017). CYCLICAL OUTPUT - UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: OKUN’S LAW PARAMETER FOR TURKEY. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 6(1), 1-14.