DOES THE 2008 REFORM CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINABILITY

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 15, 1 - 26, 26.08.2019

Çağaçan Değer

https://doi.org/10.21441/sosyalguvence.597549

Öz

Due to considerable financial sustainability
concerns, Turkey has reformed her social security system. The last leg of this
reform process took place in 2008 and included changes in replacement and
contribution rates. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the parameter
changes on financial sustainability of the system and the consumer well-being. Focus
of the analysis is on the changes in the replacement rates and the contribution
rates. The paper contributes by providing a complex quantitative analysis of
the parameter changes through an OLG (overlapping generations) model. It is
found that the simultaneous reduction of replacement and contribution rates is
a reform design flaw and actually worsens the deficits of the system. One other
finding is that the closer a person is to retirement at the time of the reform,
the worse the impact of the reform is on the person.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Social security reform, overlapping generations model, Turkey 2008 reform

2008 REFORMU SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞE KATKI YAPIYOR MU?

Öz

Finansal
sürdürülebilirliğe dair önemli kaygılardan dolayı Türkiye sosyal güvenlik
sisteminde reforma gitmiştir. Bu sürecin son aşaması 2008’de gerçekleşmiş ve
bağlama oranıyla prim oranında değişimleri içermiştir. Bu çalışma parametre
değişikliklerinin sistemin finansal sürdürülebilirliğine ve tüketicilere
etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analiz, bağlama oranı ve prim oranı
değişikliklerine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışma, parametre değişikliklerinin ardışık
nesiller modeli ile niceliksel analizini yaparak literatüre katkı yapmaktadır.
Yapılan analiz bağlama ve prim oranlarının eş anlı düşürülmesinin bir reform
tasarım hatası olduğunu ve bunun sistemin açıklarının kötüleşmesine etkisi
olacağını işaret etmektedir. Tüketici üzerindeki etkilere dair temel bulgu ise,
reform anında emekliliğe daha yakın olan çalışmaktaki bireylerin reformdan en
olumsuz etkilenenler olduğu yönündedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sosyal güvenlik reformu, ardışık nesiller modeli, Türkiye 2008 reformu

Kaynakça

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