A Synthesis on Impact Assessment Models from the Perspective of Evolution of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 1, 69 - 87, 28.06.2024

Selim Çağatay , Ali Koç , Ahmet Bayaner , Peyman Uysal , Sedat Arslan

https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1334549

Öz

Purpose: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current quantitative impact assessment methodologies, examining their strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirements, as well as their consideration of social, economic, and environmental factors. Furthermore, it aims to elucidate the necessity for new-generation agricultural impact assessment models to incorporate advancements in information technology, communication tools, and big data analytics.
Design/Methodology/Approach: In this review, the term "agricultural modelling platforms" is used to denote different equilibrium models and these models are divided into two categories according on their methodological approaches. The first category adopts a "systems approach," which includes general and partial equilibrium type models, as well as sector models. The "agent-based approach" is used by the second category. This review, thus, is primarily concerned with contrasting farm-representative models with farm-based models.
Findings: The study emphasizes the importance of methodology and criteria in modelling exercises, considering factors like analysis level, environmental impact, and relationship between agriculture and the environment. It suggests that selecting the right modelling scale and tool requires asking the right research questions in advance.
Originality/Value: In this study, general and partial equilibrium models, which allow impact analysis of policies implemented in the agricultural sector, which is increasingly faced with ecological and social problems, and Agent Based Models (ABM), which allow the problems in question to be included in the models, are compared and provided guidance to policy makers. It is aimed to reveal their advantages/disadvantages against each other. The originality of this study is that this comparison is made by taking into account the evolution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) since its establishment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Equilibrium Models, Agent-Based Models, Agricultural Policy Analysis, Common Agricultural Policy

AB Ortak Tarım Politikasının Evrimi Perspektifinden Etki Değerlendirme Modelleri Üzerine Bir Sentez

Öz

Özet
Amaç: Bu makale, mevcut niceliksel etki değerlendirme metodolojilerinin kapsamlı bir analizini sunmayı, veri gereklilikleri açısından güçlü ve zayıf yönlerini ve ayrıca sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel faktörleri dikkate alma noktasındaki kapasitelerini karşılaştırmalı olarak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca yeni nesil tarımsal etki değerlendirme modellerinin bilgi teknolojisi, iletişim araçları ve büyük veri analitiğindeki gelişmeleri de içermelerinin gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır.
Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Bu incelemede birbirinden farklı denge modelleri "tarımsal modelleme platformları" olarak adlandırılmış olup söz konusu modeller metodolojik yaklaşımlarına göre iki kategoriye ayrılmıştır Birinci kategori, genel ve kısmi denge tipi modellerin yanı sıra sektör modellerini de içeren bir "sistem yaklaşımı"nı benimseyen modelleri içermektedir. İkici kategori ise "Ajan tabanlı yaklaşım" olarak adlandırılmıştır. Dolayısıyla bu inceleme özellikle çiftlik-temsili modellerin çiftlik-tabanlı modellerle karşılaştırılması ile ilgilidir.
Bulgular: Çalışma, analiz düzeyi, çevresel etki ve tarım ve çevre arasındaki ilişki gibi faktörleri dikkate alarak modelleme çalışmalarında metodoloji ve kriterlerin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Doğru modelleme ölçeğini ve aracını seçmenin önceden doğru araştırma sorularını sormayı gerektirdiği çalışmanın önemli bir bulgusudur.
Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışmada, giderek daha fazla ekolojik ve toplumsal sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalan tarım sektöründe uygulanan politikaların etki analizlerinin yapılmasına olanak sağlayan genel ve kısmi denge modelleri ile söz konusu sorunların da modellere dahil edilmesine olanak sağlayan Ajan Tabanlı Modeller (ABM), karşılaştırılması ve politika yapıcılara yol göstermek amacıyla birbirlerine karşı avantajları/dezavantajlarının ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Bu karşılaştırmanın özellikle Avrupa Ortak Tarım Politikası'nın (CAP) kuruluşundan bu yana geçirdiği evrim dikkate alınarak ortaya konuluyor olması çalışmanın özgünlüğüdür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Denge Modelleri, Ajan Temelli Modeller, Tarımsal Politika Analizi, Ortak Tarım Politikası

Kaynakça

• AGRICORE (Agent-based support tool for the development of agriculture policies). (2023), D5.1 State of the Art Review of Agricultural Policy Assessment Models, Tools and Indicators. European Union Horizon Project (H2020-RUR-816078) Deliverable Report. https://agricore-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/D5.1-2.pdf (Accessed in 2023).
• Al-Khudhairy D. H. A., (2000), The 1992 Cap Reform: A General Analysıs of its Effect on The Environment. JRC and European Commission, January, EUR 19048 EN. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/a6199b7d-0b4b-11ea-8c1f-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-118580645. 04.05.2021. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Andrews N., Nelson R. (2001), Agenda 2000: The European Union's Reform Package for Grains. Australian Commodities, 8(2). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296518604. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Arfini F. (2001), Mathematical programming models employed in the analysis of the common agriculture policy (No. 1149-2016-92948).
• Axelrod R., Tesfatsion L. (2012), On-line guide for newcomers to agent-based modelling in the social sciences. Handbook of Computational Economics, 2. http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/abmread.htm. (Accessed in June 2022).
• Axtell R. (2000), Why agents?: On the varied motivations for agent computing in the social sciences.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228718823_Why_Agents_On_the_Varied_Motivations_for_Agent_Computing_in_the_Social_Sciences. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Baltas N. C. (2001), The Common Agricultural Policy: Past, Present and Future. January. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5058543_The_Common_Agricultural_Policy_Past_Present_and_Future (Accessed in May 2022).
• Billari F. C., Fent T., Prskawetz A., Scheffran J., 2006. Agent-based computational modelling: an introduction. In Agent-based computational modelling. 1-16. Physica-Verlag HD.
• De Muro P., Salvatici L., 2001. The common agricultural policy in multisectoral models. Osservatorio delle Politiche Agricole dell'UE Working Paper, (11). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=313601. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Dou Y., Liu J.J., 2017. Modelling telecoupled systems: design for simulating telecoupled soybean trade, Unpublished manuscript, Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Michigan State University. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/8750.pdf. (Accessed in May 2022).
• European Commission (EC), 1992. Council Regulation (EEC) No 2078/92 of 30 June 1992 on agricultural production methods compatible with the requirements of the protection of the environment and the maintenance of the countryside. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/4f9edd7f-dcbd-4758-be9b-d8819f4831ce/language-en (Accessed in May 2022).
• European Commission (EC) 2015. The Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for the Common Agricultural Policy 2014–2020, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/00da6abf-7c75-11e5-9fae-01aa75ed71a1. (Accessed in May 2022).
• European Commission (EC), 2021a. Common Agricultural Policy: Key graphs & figures: CAP expenditure in the total EU expenditure, https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/financing/cap-expenditure_en#keygraphsonthecap (Accessed in September 2022).
• European Commission (EC), 2021b. Common Agricultural Policy: Key graphs & figures: CAP expenditure and CAP reform path, https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/financing/cap-eexpenditure_en#keygraphsonthecap (Accessed in September 2022).
• Emmerson, M., M.B. Morales, J.J. Oñate, P. Batáry, F. Berendse, J. Liira, T. Aavik, I. Guerrero, Bommarco R., Eggers S., Pärt T., Tscharntke T., Weisser W., Clement L., Bengtsson J. 2016. Chapter Two: How Agricultural Intensification Affects Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, in Editor(s): A. J. Dumbrell, R. L. Kordas, Guy Woodward, Advances in Ecological Research, 55, 43-97, Academic Press. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0065250416300204. (Accessed in June 2022).
• Farmer A.M., 2012. Manual of European Environmental Policy. 1043. Routledge, London. https://ieep.eu/understanding-the-eu/manual-of-european-environmental-policy/. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Folmer C., Keyzer M. A., Merbis M. D., Stolwijk H. J. J., Veenendaal, P. J. J., 1995. The Common Agricultral Policey Beyond the Macsharry Reform. Elsevier. E-book. https://books.google.com.tr/books?hl=tr&lr=&id=LkwXBQAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Folmer,+C.,+Keyzer,+M.+A.,+Merbis,+M.+D.,+Stolwijk,+H.+J.+J.+And+Veenendaal,+P.+J.+J.+1995.+The+Common+Agricultral+Policey+Beyond+the+Macsharry+Reform&ots=0-OG0J6kZF&sig=idIjPhtVI7BulGcoPIxNFEvvBYk&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Folmer%2C%20C.%2C%20Keyzer%2C%20M.%20A.%2C%20Merbis%2C%20M.%20D.%2C%20Stolwijk%2C%20H.%20J.%20J.%20And%20Veenendaal%2C%20P.%20J.%20J.%201995.%20The%20Common%20Agricultral%20Policey%20Beyond%20the%20Macsharry%20Reform&f=false (Accessed in May 2022).
• Heckelei T., Britz W., 2005. Models based on positive mathematical programming: state of the art and further extensions, Contribution appeared in Arfini, F. (Ed.) (2005) “Modelling Agricultural Policies: State of the Art and New Challenges”, proceedings of the 89th EAAE Seminar, 2: 48 - 73. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/234607/ (Accessed in May 2022).
• Kremmydas D., Athanasiadis I. N., Rozakis S., 2018. A review of Agent Based Modelling for agricultural policy evaluation. Agricultural Systems, 164, 95-106.
• Kremmydas D., 2012. Agent based modelling for agricultural policy evaluation: A technical report, AUA Working Paper Series. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dimitrios-Kremmydas/publication/261552249_Agent_based_modelling_for_agricultural_policy_evaluation_A_review/links/00b495349a4839cd48000000/Agent-based-modelling-for-agricultural-policy-evaluation-A-review.pdf (Accessed in May 2022).
• Liu J., Herzberger, A. Kapsar, K. Carlson A. K., Connor T., 2019. What is telecoupling?. in Telecoupling. C. Friis, J. Ø. Nielsen (eds.). Chapter 2, 19-48. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-11105-2_2 (Accessed in May 2022).
• Millington D., Xiong H., Peterson S., Woods J., 2017. Integrating modelling approaches for understanding telecoupling: Global food trade and local land use. Land, 6(3): 56.
• Möhring A., Mack G., Zimmermann A., Ferjani A., Schmidt A., Mann S., 2016. Agent-based modelling on a national scale–experiences from SWISSland. Agroscope Science, 30: 1-56.
• Nègre, F. 2021. Second Pillar of The CAP: Rural Development Policy. European Commission. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ftu/pdf/en/FTU_3.2.6.pdf. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Norton R.D., Hazell P. B., 1986. Mathematical programming for economic analysis in agriculture. Macmillan.
• Paris, Q. 2001. Symmetric positive equilibrium problem: A framework for rationalizing economic behavior with limited information. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, (Agricultural and Applied Economics Association), vol. 83(4): 1049-1061.
• Ren Y., Lu Y., Comber A., Fu B., Harris P., Wu L., 2019. Spatially explicit simulation of land use/land cover changes: Current coverage and future prospects. Earth-Science Reviews. 190:398-415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.01.001.
• Rizojewa-Silava A., Pilvere I., Zeverte-Rivza S., 2018. Agriculture modelling in the European Union in Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference on Economic Sciences for Agribusiness and Rural Economy, 2. https://js.wne.sggw.pl/index.php/esare/article/view/1493. (Accessed in May 2022).
• Zobbe H., 2001. The Economic and Historical Foundation of the Common Agricultural Policy in Europe. Fourth European Historical Economics Society Conference, September 2001. Merton College, Oxford, U.K. Unit of economics working papers 2001/12. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/24212/ (Accessed in May 2022).
• https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/cap-glance_en. 05.05.2021.
• https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/future-cap/key-policy-objectives-future-cap_en#nineobjectives. (Accessed in May 2022).
• https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/110/second-pillar-of-the-cap-rural-development-policy. (Accessed in June 2022).
• https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/research-topic/rural-development). (Accessed in June 2022).
• https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/rural-development_en. (Accessed in June 2022).
• https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/SK/ALL/?uri=legissum:l60032 (Accessed in May 2022).