Kayma tipi heyelanların farklı duyarlılık modellerinde kombinasyonu: Sakarya Havzası Yukarı Çığırı örneği

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 80, 21 - 38, 30.06.2022

Mehmet Emin Cihangir

https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1065523

Cited By: 4

Öz

Heyelan duyarlılık haritaları heyelanın mekânsal tahmini için önem arz etmektedir. Bu nedenle
heyelan duyarlılık modellerinin doğruluğu tehlike ve risk çalışmaları için temel oluşturmaktadır.
Bir bölgede heyelanın tüm tipleri için tek bir model oluşturulması duyarlılığın başarısını etkilemektedir.
Heyelanların her bir tipi, farklı mekanizma ve materyalde gerçekleştiği için heyelanı
denetleyen hazırlayıcı koşullar da değişmektedir. Bu yüzden duyarlılık modellerinin tek bir heyelan
tipine göre oluşturulması daha iyi sonuçlar vermektedir. Bu nedenle çalışmanın amacı, tek
bir heyelan ana mekanizmasına bağlı moloz ve toprak kayması tipine göre duyarlılık haritalarının
nitel ve yarı nicel yaklaşımlarda nasıl sonuçlar verdiğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda
Sakarya havzasının yukarı çığırında bulunan çalışma alanı için, Varnes (1978) sınıflamasına
göre moloz ve toprak kayması tipindeki heyelanlar için Frekans Oran, Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci,
Ağırlıklandırılmış Çakıştırma, Modifiye AHP ve CBS Matris Model yaklaşımları ile duyarlılık modelleri
oluşturulmuştur. Model sonuçlarına bağlı duyarlılık oluşturulurken heyelanın yamacın
tamamını etkileyeceğinden çalışma alanı yamaç ünitelerine bölünerek çalışılmıştır. Beş model
sonucuna göre ROC eğrisinin altında kalan sonuçlar 0,79 ile 0,92 arasında değişmektedir. Bu
durum modellerin çok iyi sonuçlar verdiğini ve çalışma sahasının heyelan duyarlılığı açısından
iyi temsil edildiğini göstermektedir. Sonuçlara göre heyelanın en yüksek ve en düşük olabileceği
alanlar tüm modelde ortak alanlara karşılık gelmektedir. Çalışmada sonuç olarak ana heyelan
tipine göre oluşturulan modellerin yüksek sonuçlar verdiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, tüm
modelin tek bir modelde birleştirilmesinde kolaylık sağlamıştır. Böylece tüm modelden tek bir
model çıktısı elde eden çalışma, heyelan tehlike ve risk çalışmalarının iyileştirilmesine katkı sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Heyelan, Duyarlılık Modeli, Yamaç Ünitesi, Sakarya

Teşekkür

Yazar, öğretileri ve yardımları için Tolga Görüm ve Hakan Ahmet Nefeslioğlu'na teşekkür eder.

Combination of slide-type landslides in different susceptibility: A case study of the Sakarya Basin Upstream

Öz

Landslide susceptibility maps are important for the spatial prediction of landslides. Therefore,
the accuracy of landslide susceptibility models is the basis for hazard and risk studies.
The creation of a single model for all types of landslides in a region affects the success of
susceptibility. Since each type of landslide occurs in different mechanisms and materials, the
landslide controlling preparing conditions change. Creating susceptibility models according to
a single landslide type gives better results. For this reason, it is the aim of the study to reveal
how the susceptibility maps give results in qualitative and semi-quantitative approaches
according to the type of a single landslide main mechanism which is debris and soil slide.
For this purpose, susceptibility models were created for debris and soil type landslides
using Frequency Ratio, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Weighted Overlay, Modified Analytical
Hierarchy Process and GIS Matrix Models according to Varnes (1978) classification in the study
area located at the upstream of the Sakarya basin. While creating susceptibility depending on
the model results, the study area was divided into slope units, since a landslide would affect
the entire slope. According to the five model results, the results under the ROC change vary
between 0.79 and 0.92. This shows that the models give very good results and that the study
area is well represented in terms of landslide susceptibility. According to the results, the areas
where the landslide may be the highest and the lowest correspond to the common areas in all
models. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the models created according to the main
landslide type gave high results. These results made it easy to combine all models in a single
model. Thus, the study, which obtains a single model output from all models, contributes to
the improvement of landslide hazard and risk studies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Landslide, Susceptibility Model, Slope Unite, Sakarya

Kaynakça

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