Middle Income Trap: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Yıl 2019, TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖZEL SAYISI, 153 - 182, 30.06.2019

Hicran Kasa

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584291

Cited By: 1

Öz

The middle income trap describes countries that have not been able to accomplish sustainable economic growth and have been stuck in the level of income per capita for many years. In this study, countries located in OECD have been analyzed by using savings rate, R&D expenditures and high technology export data and investigated effect on sustainable economic growth. The variables have been analysed by applying  dynamic CCEGM model. Positive results have been obtained as expected. In addition, while variable of R&D expenditures have  highest impact on the growth performance of 20 countries, variable of domestic savings have highest impact on the growth performance of middle income countries such as Turkey. In this context, since investments to increase R & D expenditures will affect growth in the long run, middle income countries should be produce priority policies aimed at increasing domestic savings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Middle Income Trap, CCEGM, OECD, Turkey, World Bank

ORTA GELİR TUZAĞI: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

“Orta Gelir Tuzağı” kavramı, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi başaramamış ve aynı kişi başına düşen milli gelir seviyesinde çok uzun yıllar takılı kalmış ülkeleri nitelendirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş OECD ülkelerine yönelik; Ar-Ge harcamaları, yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ve yüksek teknoloji ürün ihracatının ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri araştırılmıştır. Söz konusu değişkenler, dinamik CCEGM modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. 20 OECD ülkesinin 1995-2015 verilerinden yola çıkılarak oluşturulan panel veri sonucunda, beklentiye uygun olarak değişkenler arası pozitif sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, söz konusu 20 ülkenin büyüme performanslarında en yüksek etkiye sahip olan değişken Ar-Ge harcamaları iken Türkiye özelinde değerlendirildiğinde en yüksek etkiye sahip değişkenin yurtiçi tasarruflar olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye gibi orta gelirli ülkelerde Ar-Ge harcamalarının artırılmasına yönelik yapılacak yatırımların, uzun dönemde katma değeri yüksek mal ve hizmet üretimini ve ihracatını artıracağı gerçeğinden yola çıkarak öncelikli olarak yurtiçi tasarrufları artırmaya yönelik politikalara önem verilmelidir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, CCEGM, OECD, Türkiye, Dünya Bankası

Kaynakça

• Abiad, A., Debuque-Gonzales, M. and Sy, A. L. (2018). The evolution and impact of infrastructure in middle-income countries: anything special? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(6), 1239-1263.
• Agenor, P. and Canuto, O. (2012). “Middle income growth traps”, Policy Research Working Paper Series 6210 (Washington: World Bank).
• Alptekin, V., Kasa, Ö. G. H. ve Uygun, Ö. G. E. (2018). Yurtiçi tasarruflar ile ekonomik büyüme arasindaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 4(20), 621-630.
• Baltagi, B. H. and Li, Q. (1990). A Lagrange multiplier test for the error components model with incomplete panels. Econometric Reviews, 9(1), 103-107.
• Blanchard, O. and Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: the end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002(2), 147-186.
• Bulman, D., Eden, M. and Nguyen, H. (2017). Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap? Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 22(1), 5-28.
• Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• De Hoyos, R. and Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. Stata Journal, 6(4), 482-496.
• Duramaz, S., Taş, T. ve Yılmaz, K.Ç. (2017). Yapısal kırılmalar altında satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği: Türkiye örneği. 3. İnternational Congress on Economics and Business ‘New Economic trends and Business Opportunities’ bildiri kitabı içinde syf: 213-216, Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi.
• Egawa, A. (2013). Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia? Bruegel Working Paper.
• Eichengreen, B., Park, D. and Shin, K. (2013). Growth slowdowns redux: New evidence on the middle-income trap (No. w18673). National Bureau of Economic Research. Felipe, J., Abdon, A. and Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle-income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 715.
• Gill, I. S. and Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: ideas for economic growth. The World Bank.
• Greenwood, J. and Smith, B. D. (1997). Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 145-181.
• Gill, Indermit S. and Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for economic growth (Washington D.C.World Bank).
• Gore, C. (2017). Late industrialisation, urbanisation and the middle-income trap: an analytical approach and the case of Vietnam. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 10(1), 35-57.
• Kim, J., and Park, J. (2018). The role of total factor productivity growth in Middle-Income Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(6), 1264-1284
• Ha, J. and Lee, S. H. (2016). Demographic dividend and Asia’s economic convergence towards the US. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 8, 28-41.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• Liu, X., Schwaag, S. S., Tagscherer, U. and Chang, A. Y. (2017). Beyond catch-up—can a new innovation policy help China overcome the middle income trap? Science and Public Policy, 44(5), 656-669.
• Lin, J. Y. (2017). Industrial policies for avoiding the middle-income trap: a new structural economics perspective. Journal of Chinese eConomiC and Business Studies, 15(1), 5-18.
• Nungsari, A. R. and Zeufack, A. G. (2009). “Escaping the middle-income trap”, chapter in Readings on Development: Malaysia 2057, Khazanah Nasional Berhad. OECD (2014) Perspectives on global development: Boosting productivity to meet the middle-income challenge. Paris: OECD.
• O’Connell, P. G. (1998). The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Economics, 44(1), 1-19.
• Paus, E. (2012). Confronting the middle income trap: insights from small latecomers. Studies in Comparative International Development, 47(2), 115-138.
• Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, M. H. and Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Spence, M. (2011). The next convergence : The future of economic growth in a multispeed world. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
• Sarafidis, V., Yamagata, T. and Robertson, D. (2009). A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 148(2), 149-161
• Summers, R. and Heston, A. (1991). The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An expanded set of international comparisons, 1950–1988. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 327-368.
• Taş, T., Alptekin, V. and Yılmaz, K. Ç. (2017). The stability of money demand under the structural breaks in Turkey. Journal of Current Researches on Business and Economics, 7(1), 265-280.
• Tran, V. T. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
• Yilmaz, K. Ç. ve Alptekin, V. (2018). Denge döviz kurundan sapma ve sapmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Feer yaklaşımı. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 25(2), 427-450
• Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.