Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketiminin ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Fourier-Shin Eşbütünleşme Testi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 457 - 479, 21.02.2025

Tacinur Akça

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1387796

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1970-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye'de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kişi başına enerji tüketimindeki şokların reel büyüme şokları üzerindeki etkisini açıklamaktır. Bu amaçla değişkenlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki geçici ve kalıcı etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi planlanmaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşik ilişkiyi tespit etmek için Fourier-Shin eşbütünleşme testi; durağanlığı belirlemek için ise Augmented Dickey Fuller- Becker, Enders ve Lee Fourier KPSS durağanlık testleri kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem ve kısa dönem katsayıları dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi (DOLS) kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz bulgularına göre, uzun dönemde enerji tüketimindeki %1'lik artış ekonomik büyümeyi %0,04 oranında artırırken, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki %1'lik artış ekonomik büyümeyi %1,6 oranında artırmaktadır. Kısa vadede ise doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki %1'lik artış ekonomik büyümeyi %0,7 oranında artırmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar hem uzun hem de kısa vadede Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesi için kilit bir rol oynamaktadır. Öte yandan Türkiye'nin kısa vadeli enerji politikalarından ziyade uzun vadeyi kapsayacak daha kalıcı enerji politikalarına ihtiyacı vardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, fourier shin testi

The Effects of Energy Consumption and Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth in Türkiye: Fourier-Shin Cointegration Test

Öz

The aim of this study is to explain the impact of shocks in foreign direct investments and per capita energy consumption on real growth shocks in Türkiye between 1970 and 2015. For this purpose, it is planned to evaluate the temporary and permanent effects of the variables on economic growth. To the cointegrated relationship between the variables the Fourier-Shin cointegration test; to determine the stationarity, Augmented Dickey Fuller- Becker, Enders and Lee Fourier KPSS stationarity tests were used. The long-run and short-run coefficients were estimated using the dynamic least squares method (DOLS). According to the findings of the analysis, in the long run, a 1% increase in energy consumption increases economic growth by 0.04%, while a 1% increase in foreign direct investment increases economic growth by 1.6%. In the short run, a 1% increase in FDI increases economic growth by 0.7%. FDI plays a key role for Türkiye's economic growth both in the long and short run. On the other hand, Türkiye needs more permanent energy policies that will cover the long-term rather than short-term energy policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

economic growth, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, fourier shin test

Kaynakça

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