Creating development scenarios for Harran district/Türkiye with geodesign and financial analysis

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 24 - 37, 05.06.2024

Fred Ernst , İbrahim Yenigün , Esra Tuğalan , Songül Akdağ

https://doi.org/10.56130/tucbis.1395175

Öz

Urban and regional planning in developing and developed countries faces many challenges, among them lacking support of stakeholders. Geodesign is a new approach in the framework of Public Participatory Geographic Information Systems addressing this problem. While Geodesign works have been carried out throughout the world they were separated from economic analysis. In this project, two different development scenarios for Harran District located in Southeast Turkey were elaborated using Geodesign methodology. Due to the importance of this region for agricultural production and its potential for tourism, the focus of this work lies on these sectors. The included financial analysis revealed the huge benefits of a scenario adopting early environmentally friendly technologies. The Net Present Value could be eight times higher if a conversion to orchards on some lands were realized. To streamline the computation of financial benefits on a strategic level an extension to the used GeodesignHub software was developed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Regional Planning, Geodesign, GIS, Financial Analysis, Southeast Turkey

JEOTASARIM VE FİNANSAL ANALİZ İLE GELİŞİM SENARYOLARI OLUŞTURULMASI

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ve gelişmiş ülkelerde kentsel ve bölgesel planlama, aralarında paydaşların desteğinin bulunmaması da dahil olmak üzere pek çok zorlukla karşı karşıyadır. Geodesign, Kamu Katılımlı Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri çerçevesinde bu soruna yönelik yeni bir yaklaşımdır. Geodesign çalışmaları dünyanın her yerinde yürütülürken ekonomik analizlerden ayrıştırılmıştır. Bu projede Güneydoğu Türkiye'de yer alan Harran İlçesi için Geodesign metodolojisi kullanılarak iki farklı gelişme senaryosu detaylandırılmıştır. Bu bölgenin tarımsal üretim açısından önemi ve turizm potansiyeli nedeniyle bu çalışmanın odağını bu sektörler oluşturmaktadır. Dahil edilen mali analiz, erken çevre dostu teknolojileri benimseyen bir senaryonun büyük faydalarını ortaya çıkardı. Bazı arazilerde meyve bahçesine dönüşüm gerçekleştirilirse Net Bugünkü Değer sekiz kat daha yüksek olabilir. Finansal faydaların stratejik düzeyde hesaplanmasını kolaylaştırmak için kullanılan GeodesignHub yazılımının bir uzantısı geliştirildi.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bölge Planlama, Jeotasarım, CBS, Mali Analiz, Güneydoğu Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Al-Hayali, N. M. (1964) Drainage in Mesopotamia. Proceedings of the Ninth Arab Engineering Conference, Baghdad, Iraq.
• Anadoku. (2016). Harran management plan 2016 – 2021. Sanliurfa, Turkey. Retrieved May 20, 2021, from https://kvmgm.ktb.gov.tr/Eklenti/68245,uyp-harran-yonetim-planipdf.pdf?0
• Artz, M. (2010). Changing geography by design: Selected readings in geodesign. ESRI Press
• Bailey, M. (2021). 176,000 acres of pecans needed to fill current supply gap. Retrieved July 10, 2021, from https://pecanreport.com/news/176000-acres-of-pecans-needed-to-fill-current-supply-gap/
• Ballal, H. (2015). Collaborative planning with digital design synthesis [Doctoral dissertation, University College]. Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis Faculty of the Built Environment. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1471177/
• Barlas Zoning Planning Consultancy Company. (2016). GAP Region Tourism Master Plan. Retrieved July 15, 2021, from https://www.kalkinmakutuphanesi.gov.tr/assets/upload/dosyalar/eeb014cc2132bd5dcd41491ba3acc2dd3412.pdf
• Benek, S. (2009). Ortaya çikişi, gelişme seyri ve bölgeye etkileri bakimindan Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP). Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(03), 45-71. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002113
• Campagna, M., Steinitz, C., Di Cesare, E. A., Cocc,o C., Ballal, H., & Canfield, T. (2016). Collaboration in planning: The Geodesign approach. Rozwój Regionalny i Polityka Regionalna, (35), 55–72.
• Center for Community Health and Development at the University of Kansas. (2021). Retrieved July 8, 2022, from https://ctb.ku.edu/en
• Construction Approximate Cost. (2021). Communiqué on approximate unit costs of construction in 2021 to be used in calculation of architecture and engineering service fees. Official Newspaper. Retrieved August 8, 2021, from https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2021/03/20210324-3.htm
• Çullu, M. A., Aydemir, S., Almaca, A., Öztürkmen, A. R., Sönmez, O., Binici, T., Bilgili, A. V., Yılmaz, G., Dikilitaş, M., Karakaş Dikilitaş, S., Sakin, E., Şahin, Y., Aydoğdu, M., Aydemir, A., & Çeliker, M. (2010). Harran Ovası Tuzluluk haritasının oluşturulması ve tuzlulaşmanın bitkisel verim kayıplarına etkisinin tahmini. T C Başbakanlık GAP Bölge Kalkınma İdaresi Başkanlığı Proje Raporu.
• Damodaran. (2021). Betas by sector (US). Retrieved May 15, 2021, from https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html
• Dede, O. M. (2016) The analysis of Turkish urban planning process regarding sustainable urban development. Sustainable Urbanization, 269-290. https://dx.doi.org/10.5772/63271
• Dede, O. M., & Ayten, M. A. (2012) The role of spatial planning for sustainable tourism development: A theoretical model for Turkey. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 10(60), 431-445.
• Dobner, M. (2002). Mid year discounting and seasonality factors. Business Valuation Review, 21(1), 16–18.
• Erdem, U. (2016). Regional human capital distribution and disparities in Turkey. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies (RURDS), 1(28), 16-31. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12043
• Ernst, F. B., Erdoğan, S., Yılmaz, M., Ulukavak, M., Şenol, H.İ. , Memduhoğlu, A., & Çullu, M. A. (2019). Geodesign for urban planning: A case study from Harran University’s Campus master plan. International Journal of Environmental Trends (IJENT), 3(1), 17-30.
• Ernst, F. B., Karabulut, A.İ., Yeşilnacar, M. İ. (2021) Geodesign – A new approach for rapid development of planning and carbon sequestration scenarios. 6th International Conference on Smart City Applications, Karabük,Turkey, 559-570.
• ESRI. (2019). Geodesign: A bibliography. Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://gisandscience.com/2009/08/13/geodesign-a-bibliography
• GitHub. (2021). GİTHUB. Retrieved October 17, 2022, from https://github.com/geodesignhub
• Global Solar Atlas. (2021). Global Solar Atlas. Retrieved August 9, 2021, from https://globalsolaratlas.info/
• Hackley, G., & Gopher, A. (2020). Geometry and architectural planning at Göbekli Tepe. Cambridge Archaeological Journal, 2(30), 343-357. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0959774319000660
• IGC. (2021). The International Geodesign Collaboration (IGC). Retrieved October 17, 2022, from https://www-igcollab.hub.arcgis.com/
• Jacobs, J. (1961). The death and life of great American cities. Random House Press.
• Kacar, M. S., & Onay, A. I. (2015). The role of urban governance and planning in knowledge city development: Case study of istanbul, Turkey. 10. International Forum on Knowledge Asset Dynamics Bari, Italy, 164-176.
• Karacadag Development Agency. (2014). Solar Panel Manufacturing Investment Feasibility. Retrieved July 15, 2021, from https://www.karacadag.gov.tr/Dokuman/Dosya/www.karacadag.org.tr_267_YT8D28MX_gunes_panelleri_imalati_yatirim_fizibilitesi.pdf
• Karacadag Development Agency. (2018). Şanlıurfa with Statistics. Retrieved July 18, 2021, from https://www.karacadag.gov.tr/Dokuman/Dosya/www.karacadag.gov.tr_306_FO6F86VU_istatistiklerle_sanliurfa_2018.pdf
• Kim, M. (2017) Teaching coastal resilience using geodesign: A study of Virginia Beach. Journal of Digital Landscape Architecture, (2), 279-286. https://doi.org/10.14627/537629029
• Kunzmann, K. (1993). Geodesign: Chance oder gefahr? Planungskartographie und geodesign. Informationen zur Raumentwicklung.
• Market-Risk-Premia. (2022). Implied market-risk-premia (IMRP). Retrieved October 29, 2022, from http://www.market-risk-premia.com/tr.html
• Menemencioglu, K. (2007) The Sabians of Harran. Retrieved November 18, 2021, from http://hermetics.org/Sabians_of_Harran.html
• Moura, A. C., Marino, T., Ballal, H., Ribeiro, S., & Motta, S. (2016). Interoperability and visualization as a support for mental maps to face differences in scale in Brazilian geodesign processes. Rozwój Regionalny i Polityka Regionalna, (35), 89-102.
• National Cotton Council. (2020). National cotton council cotton sector report. Retrieved July 20 16, 2021, from http://www.upk.org.tr/User_Files/editor/file/UPK-Sekto%CC%88r%20Raporu%202020-Rev..pdf
• Nedjeljko, F (2011). Public participation geographic information systems. Kartografija i Geoinformacije, 10(15), 178.
• Nyerges, T., Ballal, H., Steinitz, C., Canfield, T., Roderick, M., Ritzman, J., & Thanatemaneerat, W. (2016). Geodesign dynamics for sustainable urban watershed development. Sustainable Cities and Society, 3(25), 13-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.04.016
• Pecan Nut Prices. (2021). Pecan nut prices. Retrieved May 16, 2021, from https://www.hepsiburada.com/ara?q=pikan+cevizi
• Pettit, C. J., Hawken, S., Ticzon, C., Leao, S. Z., Afrooz, A. E., Lieske, S. N., Canfield, T., Ballal, H., & Steinitz, C. (2019). Breaking down the silos through geodesign – Envisioning Sydney’s urban future. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 46(8), 1387-1404. https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808318812887
• Polidoro, M., Lollo, J. A., Barros, M. V. F. (2012). Urban sprawl and the challenges for urban planning. Journal of Environmental Protection, (3), 1010-1019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.39117
• Rabinowitz, P. (2021). Analyzing community problems and designing and adapting community interventions, Chapter 18. deciding where to start, Section 2. Participatory approaches to planning community interventions. Retrieved July 20, 2021, from https://ctb.ku.edu/en/table-of-contents/analyze/where-to-start/participatory-approaches/main
• Rafanan, M. (2021). Pecan report. Agricultural Marketing Service. (USDA). Retrieved July 20, 2021, from https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwtvpcn.pdf
• Rivero, R., Smith, A., Ballal, H., & Steinitz, C. (2015). Promoting collaborative geodesign in a multidisciplinary and multiscale environment: coastal georgia 2050, USA. Proceedings of Digital Landscape Architecture, Bernburg, Gemany, 42-58.
• SACOG. (2010). Sacramento’s 2004 blueprint plan. Retrieved July 20, 2021, from https://www.sacog.org/sacramento-region-blueprint
• Schindler, K. H. (2016). The weakness of regional planning and a possible approach to solve it. AICP, 1-5.
• Şenlik, İ. (2013) Evaluation of urban rail transportation systems. EMO, 24-26.
• Solar Avm. (2021). Solar Panel Prices. Retrieved August 9, 2021, from https://solaravm.com/gunes-paneli-fiyatlari-2021
• Steinitz, C. A. (2012). A framework for geodesign: Changing geography by design. ESRI Press.
• Stone, P. A. (1959). Urban development and cost prediction. The Town Planning Review, 30(3), 207-229.
• Suri, M., Betak, J., Rosina, K., Chrkavy, D., Suriova, N., Cebecauer, T., Caltik, M., & Erdelyi, B. (2020). Global photovoltaic power potential by country. Retrieved August 9, 2021, from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/466331592817725242/Global-Photovoltaic-Power-Potential-by-Country
• T.R. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Directorate of Western Mediterranean Agricultural Research Institute. (2009). Pecan walnut cultivation in the world and in Turkey. Retrieved September 9, 2021, from https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/batem/Belgeler/Kutuphane/Teknik%20Bilgiler/pikan%20cevizi%20yetistiriciligi.pdf
• Taştan, H. (2013). Comparative analysis of depreciation allocation and valuation in walnut orchards in accordance with Turkish accounting standards - 41 and tax procedure law. MUFAD Journal, (60), 25-38.
• The Grand Vision Coordinating Group. (2009). Northwest Michigan’s grand vision. Retrieved August 16, 2021, from http://www.thegrandvision.org/local/upload/file/thegrandvision.pdf
• The Solar Nerd. (2021) Will solar panels get cheaper? Retrieved July 10, 2021, from https://www.thesolarnerd.com/blog/will-solar-get-cheaper/
• The World Bank. (2015). Rise of the anatolian tigers: Turkey urbanization review. Retrieved July 25, 2021, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/publication/turkey-urbanization-review
• TÜIK. (2021a). Türkiye İstatisitk Kurumu, İl bazında kişi başına gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla 2004-2020 (in Turkish). Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Il-Bazinda-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2019-33663
• TÜIK. (2021b). Türkiye İstatisitk Kurumu, İl Bazında Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hasıla, Cari Fiyatlarla. (in Turkish). Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Search/Search?text=%C4%B0l%20baz%C4%B1nda%20gayrisafi%20yurt%20i%C3%A7i%20has%C4%B1la
• TÜIK. (2022a). Türkiye İstatisitk Kurumu, Okuryazarlık ve cinsiyete göre nüfus (6+ yaş), 2021 (in Turkish). Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Egitim,-Kultur,-Spor-ve-Turizm-105
• TÜIK. (2022b). Türkiye İstatisitk Kurumu, İstatistiklerle Aile, 2021(in Turkish). Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Nufus-ve-Demografi-109
• UNESCO. (2022) UNESCO World Heritage Convention. Tentative Lists. Harran and Sanliurfa. Harran and Sanliurfa - UNESCO World Heritage Centre. Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/1400/
• UNHABITAT. (2007). Urban Planning Best Practices on Creating Harmonious Cities. Retrieved June 10, 2021, from http://www.unhabitat.org/categories.asp?catid=508
• UNHABITAT. (2013). Urban Planning Best Practices on Creating Harmonious Cities. Retrieved October 18, 2022, from https://unhabitat.org/the-competitiveness-of-cities
• United Cities and Local Governments. (2010) Policy paper on urban strategic planning: Local leaders preparing for the future of our cities. Retrieved June 10, 2021, from https://www.uclg.org/sites/default/files/urbanstrategic.pdf.
• Unver, I. (1997). Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). International Journal of Water Resources Development, (13), 453-484.
• USIAD. (2008). GAP report - What Happened in GAP? - Economic, strategic and political developments in the region. Turkey: National Association of Industrialists and Businessmen (USIAD). Retrieved May 18, 2021, from https://kutuphane.tarimorman.gov.tr/vufind/Record/16456