Analysıs of Number Of Tourist in Safranbolu wıth NARX Neural Networks Method

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 219 - 231, 31.01.2024

Şeyma Nur Ünal

Öz

Tourism is one of the major sector for economy. Along with the progress of globalization, the number of tourist has been increasing in recent year. Safranbolu, which hosts domestic and foreign tourists, has started to make its place in the economy of the district with the formation of small and medium-sized touristics facilities since the early 1990s. Artificial Neural Networks, one of the methods that work by imitating human brains, are used in prediction and analysis methods. NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous) recurrent neural networks, an Artificial Neural Network model, are a powerful class of models that have proven to be very suitable for modeling nonlinear systems and especially time series. The NARX neural network has feedback links that surround several layers of the network. In this study an analysis of the number of the tourists coming to Safranbolu was made using the monthly exchange rate, NARXwith consumer price index model between 2003-2021. The data are trained in MATLAB environment. As a result of the study, it was concluded that NARX Neural Network is high and effective performance method in the analysis of the number of tourists in Safranbolu.

Anahtar Kelimeler

NARX, Tourism, ANN

NARX Sinir Ağı Yöntemi ile Safranbolu Turist Sayısının Analizi

Öz

Turizm, ekonomi için ana sektörlerden biri haline geldi. Küreselleşmenin ilerlemesiyle birlikte, son yıllarda turist sayısı her geçen yıl artmaktadır. Yerli ve yabancı turistlere ev sahipli yapan Safranbolu 1990’lı yılların başından bu yana küçük ve orta ölçekli turistik tesislerin oluşumu ile ilçe ekonomisindeki yerini hissettirmeye başlamıştır. İnsan beynini taklit ederek çalışan yöntemlerden biri olan yapay sinir ağları, tahmin ve analiz yöntemlerinde kullanılmaktadır. Yapay Sinir Ağı modeli olan NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous) tekrarlayan sinir ağları, doğrusal olmayan sistemleri ve özellikle zaman serilerini modellemek için çok uygun oldukları kanıtlanmış güçlü bir model sınıfıdır. NARX sinir ağı, ağın birkaç katmanını çevreleyen geri besleme bağlantılarına sahiptir. Bu çalışmada 2003 -2021 yılları arası aylık döviz kuru, tüketici fiyat endeksi ile NARX sinir ağı modeli kullanılarak Safranbolu’ya gelen turist sayısına yönelik analiz yapılmıştır. Veriler MATLAB ortamında eğitilmiştir. Yapılan çalışma sonucunda Safranbolu turist sayısı analizinde NARX sinir ağının yüksek ve etkili bir performans yöntemi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

NARX, Turizm, YSA

Kaynakça

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