Türkiye’de Tarımsal Faaliyetler Karbon Emisyonunu Etkiler mi? “ARDL Testinden Elde Edilen Kanıtlar”

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 536 - 546, 30.04.2024

Ülkü Özbay

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1380091

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’de karbon emisyonu ile tarımsal faaliyetler arasındaki ilişkiyi 1990-2020 dönemi için analiz etmektir. Çalışmada karbon emisyonunu temsilen; CO2 emisyonu değişkeni, tarımsal faaliyetleri temsilen; bitkisel üretim endeksi, gıda üretim endeksi, hayvancılık üretim endeksi ve tarımsal katma değer değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile açıklanmıştır. Analiz bulgularına göre tüm değişkenler arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönemli sonuçlara göre; gıda üretim endeksi değişkeni ile CO2 emisyonu değişkeni arasında pozitif ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşın, tarımsal katma değer, hayvancılık endeksi ve bitki üretim endeksi değişkenleri ile CO2 emisyonu değişkeni arasında negatif ilişki söz konusudur. Araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçlar C02 emisyonu ve tarımsal faaliyetlere ilişkin literatüre katkı ve politika yapıcılar için aydınlatıcı bilgi sağlayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tarımsal Faaliyetler, CO2 Emisyonu, Tarım Ekonomisi, Çevre Ekonomisi, Zaman Serileri

Do Agricultura Activities Affect Carbon Emissions in Turkiye? “Evidence From ARDL Testing”

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural activities in Turkey for the 1990-2020 period. In the study, the CO2 emission variable represents carbon emissions. In addition, crop production index, food production index, livestock production index and agricultural added value variables represent agricultural activities. The cointegration relationship between the variables in the study was explained with the ARDL Bounds Test approach. According to the analysis findings, a statistically significant cointegration relationship was found between all variables. According to long-term results; A positive relationship was detected between the food production index variable and the CO2 emission variable. On the other hand, a negative relationship was found between the variables of agricultural added value, livestock index, crop production index and the CO2 emission variable. The results obtained from the research will contribute to the literature on C02 emissions and agricultural activities and these results will provide enlightening information for policy makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Agricultural Activities, C02 Emission, Agricultural Economics, Environmental Economics, Time Series

Kaynakça

• Adedoyin, F. F., Bein M.A., Gyamfi B.A., Bekun F.V. 2021. Does Agricultural Development Induce Environmental Pollution in E7? A Myth or Reality. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 41869–41880.
• Ali E.B., Gyamfi B.A., Bekun F.V., Ozturk I.,Nketiah P. 2023. An Empirical Assessment of the Tripartite Nexus between Environmental Pollution, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Sub-Saharan African Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 71007–71024.
• Ali S., Gucheng L., Ying L., Ishaq M., Shah T. 2019. The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis. Energies, 12, 4644.
• Anwar A., Sarwar S., Amin W., Arshed N. 2019. Agricultural Practices and Quality of Environment: Evidence for Global Perspective. Environmental Science Pollution Research, 26(15):15617–15630.
• Appiah K., Du J., Poku J. 2018. Causal Relationship between Agricultural Production and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Selected Emerging Economies. Environmental Science Pollution Research, 25(25), 24764–24777.
• Ayyildiz M., Erdal G. 2021. The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emission and Crop and Livestock Production Indexes: A Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Approach. Environmental Science Pollution Reserach, 28, 597–610i
• Balogh J.M. 2022. The Impacts of Agricultural Development and Trade on CO2 Emissions? Evidence from the Non-European Union Countries, Environmental Science & Policy, 137(2),99-108.
• Balsalobre-Lorente D., Driha O.M., Bekun F.V., Osundina O.A., 2019. Do Agricultural Activities Induce Carbon Emissions? The BRICS Experience. Environmental Science Pollution Research. 26(24):25218–25234.
• Chowdhury S., Khan S., Sarker M.F.H., Islam M.K., Tamal M.A., Khan N.A. 2022. Does Agricultural Ecology Cause Environmental Degradation? Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh. Heliyon, 8(6), e09750.
• Çetin, M., Saygın, S., Demir, H. 2020. Tarım Sektörünün Çevre Kirliliği Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(3), 329-345.
• FAO. 2015. The Food Systems of the Future Need to Be Smarter, More Efficient. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/275009/icode/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023)
• Ghosh S.. 2018. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption in Agriculture: A Causality Analysis for India. Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, 17(2), 183–207.
• Göv, A., Kaya, S.K. 2023. Türkiye Örneğinde Çevresel Kalitenin Belirleyicileri: LASSO Yaklaşımı. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 54, 25-37.
• Haug A.A. 2002. Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: a Monte Carlo Study. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 399-412.
• Hussain I., Rehman A. 2022. How CO2 Emission Interacts with Livestock Production for Environmental Sustainability? Evidence from Pakistan. Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 24(6), 8545–8565.
• Ijieh, S. O. 2014. Promoting Sustainable Development in Nigeria through the Non-oil Export. Research on Humanities and Social Sciences, 4(8).
• IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/. Erişim Tarihi 16.09.2023
• Jebli B.M, Youssef B.S.. 2017. Renewable Energy Consumption and Agriculture: Evidence for Cointegration and Granger Causality for Tunisian Economy. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 24(2), 149–158.
• Kaya, S.K., Göv, A. 2023. BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Örneğinde Ekolojik Ayak İzine Yönelik Çevresel Politika Şokları Kalıcı mı?. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1), 31-44.
• Khan R., Zhuang W., Najumddin O., Butt R.S., Ahmad I., Al-Faryan M.A.S. 2022. The Impact of Agricultural Intensification on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Energy Consumption: A Comparative Study of Developing and Developed Nations. Frontiers Environmental Science, 10:1036300.
• Kruse, J. 2010. Estimating Demand for Agricultural Commodities to 2050. Global Harvest Initiative. https://pdf4pro.com/view/estimating-demand-for-agricultural-commodities-132658.html (Erişim Tarihi: 12.10.2023)
• Liu X., Zhang S., Bae J. 2017. The Impact of Renewable Energy and Agriculture on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Four Selected ASEAN Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 164, 1239–1247.
• Lynch J., Cain M., Frame D., Pierrehumbert R. 2021. Agriculture's Contribution to Climate Change and Role in Mitigation Is Distinct From Predominantly Fossil CO2-Emitting Sectors. Frontiers Sustainable Food Systems, 4:518039.
• Maslow, A. H. 1943. A Theory of Human Motivation. Psychological Review, 50 (4), 370–396.
• Narayan S., Narayan P.K. 2004. Determinants of Demand for Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
• Oğul B.2023. Tarım Sektöründeki Gelişmeler Çevresel Kirliliği Etkiliyor mu? Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(3), 1016-1026.
• Pesaran M.H, Shin Y., 1998. An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 31,371–413
• Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., Smith R.J. 2001. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
• Prastiyo S.E., Irham I., Hardyastuti S, Jamhari j. 2020. How Agriculture, Manufacture and Urbanization Induced Carbon Emission? The Case of Indonesia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 27(33):42092–42103.
• Raihan A., Begum R.A., Nizam M.,Said M., Pereira J. J. 2022. Dynamic Impacts of Energy Use, Agricultural Land Expansion and Deforestation on CO2 Emissions in Malaysia. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 29, 477–507.
• Raihan A. 2023. An Econometric Evaluation of the Effects of Economic Growth, Energy Use and Agricultural Value Added on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Vietnam. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 7, 665-696.
• Rehman A., Ma H., Ozturk I. 2020. Decoupling the Climatic and Carbon Dioxide Emission Influence to Maize Crop Production in Pakistan. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 13(1).
• Rehman A., Ma H., Chishti M.Z., Ozturk I., Irfan M., Ahmad M. 2021a. Asymmetric Investigation to Track the Effect of Urbanization, Energy Utilization, Fossil Fuel Energy and CO2 Emission on Economic Efficiency in China: Enother Outlook. Environmental Science Pollution Research, 28(1),7319–30.
• Rehman A., Ulucak R., Murshed M., Ma H., Işık C. 2021b. Carbonization and Atmospheric Pollution in China: The Asymmetric Impacts of Forests, Livestock Production, and Economic Progress on CO2 Emissions. Journal of Environment Managment, 294.
• Sarkodie S.A., Owusu P.A. 2017. The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide, Crop and Food Production Index in Ghana: By Estimating the Long-Run Elasticities and Variance Decomposition. Environmental Engineering Research, 22(2), 193–202.
• Waheed R., Chang D., Sarwar S., Chen W. 2018. Forest, Agriculture, Renewable Energy and CO2 Emission. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 4231-4238.
• Zhang J., Cherian J., Parvez A.M., Samad S., Sial M.S., Ali M.A., Khan M.A. 2022. Consequences of Sustainable Agricultural Productivity. Renewable Energy, and Environmental Decay: Recent Evidence from ASEAN Countries. Sustainability, 14, 3556.
• Zhou G., Li H., Ozturk I.,Ullah S. 2022. Shocks in Agricultural Productivity and CO2 Emissions: New Environmental Challenges for China in the Green Economy. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 5790-5806.
• Zinchuk T., Kutsmus N., Prokopchuk O., Lagodiienko V., Nych T., Naumko Y. 2021. Multifunctionality of Agriculture in the Reality of Globalization Crisis. Inzynieria Ekologiczna (Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology), 22(1): 51–59.