THE ECONOMETRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANISATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH (THE CASE OF EU COUNTRIES AND TURKEY)

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 19, 1 - 24, 01.07.2017

Cenap Sancar , Canan Sancar

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.287053

Cited By: 5

Öz

Bu
çalışmanın amacı, Avrupa Birliği’nin 13
Ülkesi ve Türkiye açısından kentleşme
ve ekonomik büyüme arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığını, ilişki var ise bu
ilişkinin yönünü belirlemektir. Çalışmada, kişi başına GSYH bağımlı değişken,
kentleşmeyi temsilen kentsel nüfus yoğunluğu, sanayi, hizmetler sektörü
istihdam oranları ve ayrıca modele dahil edilen tarım sektörü istihdam oranı ve
genel istihdam oranı bağımsız değişken olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışma
kapsamında oluşturulan modelin değişkenlerine ait 1990-2014 yıllık serileri
panel eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Panel nedensellik testi
sonuçlarına göre, hizmetler sektörü istihdam oranı ve sanayi sektörü istihdam
oranı ve tarım sektörü istihdam oranı ile kişi başına GSYH arasında çift yönlü
nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Bununla birlikte kişi başına GSYH’den kentsel
nüfus yoğunluğu ve genel istihdam oranına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi
vardır. Ayrıca, DOLS ve FMOLS sonuçlarına göre
kentsel nüfus yoğunluğu ve hizmet sektörü istihdam oranındaki artışlar kişi
başına GSYH’yi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular
kentleşme ve ekonomik büyümenin 13 AB ülkesi ve Türkiye’de birbirlerini
besleyen süreçler olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kentleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, AB Ülkeleri, Türkiye, Panel Eşbütünleşme

THE ECONOMETRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANISATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH (THE CASE OF EU COUNTRIES AND TURKEY)

Öz

The aim of this study is to determine whether there is
a relationship between urbanisation and economic growth in terms of 13 European
Union Member countries and of Turkey as well as to determine the direction of
this relationship, if it exists. In the study, GDP per capita was used as a
dependant variable where population density and employment rates of industry
and services sectors, which represent the urbanisation, as well as the
employment rate of agriculture sector and general employment rate, which were
included in our model, were used as independent variables. The annual series of
the variables of the model that was created within the scope of the study for
the period between 1990-2014 were analysed by panel co-integration method.
According to panel causality test, there is a bilateral causality relationship
between GDP and employment rates of services, industry, and agriculture
sectors. Additionally, there was a unilateral causality relationship from GDP
towards urban population density and towards general employment rate. Also,
according to the DOLS and FMOLS results, the increases in urban population
density and in the employment rate of services sector have a positive effect on
GDP per capita. Findings from the study show that urbanisation and economic
growth are mutually dependent processes in 13 EU member countries and in
Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Urbanisation, Economic Growth, EU Countries, Turkey, Panel Cointegration

Kaynakça

• Akbas, Y. E., Senturk, M., ve Sancar, C. (2013). Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7. Panoeconomıcus, 6, 791-812. Doi: 10.2298/PAN1306791A
• Antrop, M. (2004). Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe. Landscape and Urban Planning, 67, 9-26. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(03)00026-4
• Bala, A. P. (2009). Urban Concentration and Economic Growth:checking for specific regional effects. CORE Discussion Paper, 38, 1-43. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w7503
• Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
• Barro, R. J., ve Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
• Berke, B., Özcan, B.,ve Dizdarlar, H. I. ( 2014). Döviz Piyasasının Etkinliği: Türkiye için Bir Analiz. Akademik Bakış, 14(4), 621-636. Retrieved from
• Bertinelli, L., ve Black, D. (2004). Urbanization and growth. Journal of Urban Economics, 56(1), 80-96. Retrieved from
• Castells, D., ve Royuela, V. (2013). Urban concentration, infrastructures and economic growth. The University of East Anglia , 2-22. Retrieved from
• Chen, M., Zhang, H., Liu, W., ve Zhang, W. (2014). The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades. PLoS ONE 9(8): e103799. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103799.
• Cheng, C. (2012). A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in China. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 6(1), 8-15.
• Cohen, B. (2006). Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends,future projections, and key challenges for sustainability. Technology in Society(28), 63-80. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2005.10.005
• Chen, M., Zhang, H., Liu, W., ve Zhang, W. (2014). The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades. PLoS ONE 9(8): e103799. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103799.
• Cheng, C. (2012). A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in China. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 6(1), 8-15.
• Farahmand, S., Sameti, M., ve Sasan, S. S. (2010). Does the development level influence the relationship between economic growth and urban concentration?(Evidences from Mediterranean Countries and EU). Journal of Social and Economic Development, 12(2), 101-114. Retrieved from http://gdri.dreem.free.fr/wp-content/b1-2sameti-urbanconcentration.pdf
• Gardner, B. L. (2005). Causes of rural economic development. Agricultural Economics, 32(1), 21-41. Doi: 10.1111/j.0169-5150.2004.00012.x
• Grozdev, D. (2011). The Changing Dynamics of Urbanization in Developing Countries. Economic Research Center, 1-4. Retrieved from
• Harris, N. (1988). Economic development and urbanisation. Habitat International, 12(3), 5-15. doi:10.1016/0197-3975(88)90057-4
• Henderson, J. V. (1988). ‘‘Urban Development: Theory, Fact, and Illusion’’. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press.
• Henderson, V. (2002). Urbanization in Developing Countries. The World Bank Research Observer, 17(1), 89-112. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3986401
• Henderson, V. (2003). The urbanization process and economic growth: The so-what question. Journal of Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 47-71. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40215937
• Hoang, N. T., ve Mcnown, R. F. (2006). Panel Data Unit Roots Tests Using Various Estimation Methods. Department of Economics - University of Colorado at Boulder, 1-28. Retrieved from
• Hope, K. R. (1986). Urbanization and economic development in the third world: An overview. Cities, 3(1), 41-57. doi:10.1016/0264-2751(86)90005-3
• Hossain, M. S. (2011). Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. 39(11), 6991–6999. Retrieved from
• Huang, M., Hu, S., ve Su, X. (2013). Exploring the Relation between the Urbanization and Urban Employment in China Based on Panel Data and Time Series. 2013 Ninth International Conference on Natural Computation (ICNC) 1814-1819. Doi: 10.1109/ICNC.2013.6818278
• Hurlin, C., ve Dumitrescu, E. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling,
• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
• Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & Chu, C.-S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data:asymptotic and "nite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics , 108, 1-24. Retrieved from
• Lewis, B. D. (2014). Urbanization and Economic Growth in Indonesia:Good News, Bad News and (Possible) Local Government Mitigation. Regional Studies, 48(1), 192-2007. Retrieved from
• Liddle, B.,ve Messinis, G. (2014). Which comes firstUrbanization or economic growth? Evidence from heterogeneous panel causality tests. Accepted , 1-13. Retrieved from
• Lo, D. Y. (2010). Urbanization and Economic Growth:Testing for Causality. Department of Real Estate and Construction The University of Hong Kong, 1-25. Retrieved from http://www.prres.net/papers/Lo_Urbanization_Economic_Growth_Testing_Causality.pdf
• Mills, E. S., ve Becker, C. M. (1986). Studies in Indian Urban Development. Oxford: Oxford Üniversity Press.
• Mills, E. S., ve Nijkamp, P. (1987). Advances in Urban Economics. Oxford: North-Holland.