DO INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 20 EMERGING ECONOMIES

Yıl 2018, 18. EYİ Özel Sayısı, 55 - 66, 16.01.2018

Mehmet Bölükbaş

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.354678

Öz

The main objective of this paper is to discuss how
inflation and economic growth affects youth unemployment in emerging economies.
Within this study, the effect of inflation and economic growth on youth
unemployment was tested for 20 emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, China,
Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia Federation, South Africa,
Thailand, Turkey) with the data covering the period of 1991–2016. The
relationship between the variables was tested via second generation panel
cointegration and panel causality tests. According to the findings of
Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test by Westerlund (2008), there is a
cointegration relationship between variables. In addition, Dumitrescu-Hurlin
(2012) panel causality test results have indicated that there exists
statistically significant bidirectional causality between inflation and youth
unemployment and also between economic growth and youth unemployment. Based on
these results, it is possible to say that inflation and economic growth
substantially affect youth unemployment and the direction of the effect is
negative on youth unemployment. That means positive developments in inflation
and economic growth lead to a decline in youth unemployment rates for selected
emerging economies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Youth unemployment, Inflation, Economic growth, Emerging economies

DO INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 20 EMERGING ECONOMIES

Öz

Bu
çalışmanın temel amacı gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyon ve ekonomik
büyümenin genç işsizliği nasıl etkilediğini tartışmaktır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada
enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi 1991-2016
dönemi dikkate alınarak 20 gelişmekte olan ülke (Brezilya, Çek Cumhuriyeti,
Çin, Filipinler, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Kolombiya, Macaristan,
Malezya, Meksika, Mısır, Pakistan, Peru, Polonya, Rusya, Şili, Tayland, Türkiye
ve Yunanistan) için test edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki ikinci nesil
panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Westerlund
(2008) tarafından geliştirilen Durbin-Hausman panel eşbütünleşme test
sonuçlarına göre, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit
edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Durbin-Hausman (2012) panel nedensellik test
sonuçları, hem enflasyon ile genç işsizlik arasında, hem de ekonomik büyüme ile
genç işsizlik arasında istatistik olarak anlamlı olan iki yönlü nedensellik
ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlara dayanarak enflasyonun ve
ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizliği gerçek anlamda etkilediği ve bu etkinin
negatif yönde olduğu söylenebilmektedir. Bunun anlamı ise çalışma kapsamındaki
gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonda ve ekonomik büyümede meydana gelecek
pozitif gelişmelerin genç işsizliği azaltmada etkili olduğudur. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Genç İşsizlik, Enflasyon, Ekonomik Büyüme, Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler

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