TÜRKİYE’NİN YEŞİL BÜYÜME PERFORMANSININ PARİS ANLAŞMASI BAĞLAMINDA KARBON VERİMLİLİĞİ ÜZERİNDEN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 44, 1 - 20, 07.08.2024

Meltem Tarı Özgür

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1413611

Öz

Günümüzde iklim değişikliğinin, Dünya’nın geleceği ile ilgili en ciddi tehditlerden birisi olduğu herhangi bir şüpheye yer kalmayacak şekilde açıklığa kavuşmuştur. İklim değişikliğinin büyük oranda insan faaliyetleri tarafından tetiklendiği de bilinmektedir. Bu nedenle Paris Anlaşması’na taraf olan ülkeler, ortalama yüzey sıcaklığı artışının 2100 yılına kadar sanayileşme öncesindeki seviyeye kıyasla 2,0 ℃ ile sınırlandırılması konusunda anlaşmaya varmıştır. Bu hedef için gerekli sera gazı azalımının ekonomik büyümeden ödün vermeden sağlanabilmesi için yeşil büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. Bu çalışmada ilk olarak gerçek yeşil büyüme (GYB) tanımı yardımıyla yeşil büyüme modelinin Paris Anlaşması’na uyumu sağlanmıştır. GYB’nin sağlanabilmesi başka bir deyişle 2,0 ℃ hedefine ulaşılabilmesi için yıllık karbon verimliliği artışının %5 olması gerektiği, çalışmada kullanılan küresel ekonomik büyüme projeksiyonu ve sera gazı salımı senaryosu göz önünde bulundurularak gösterilmiştir. Ardından Türkiye’nin GYB performansı, 2004-2020 yılları arasında seçilmiş ülkeler ve ülke grupları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Türkiye’nin çalışma döneminde kaydettiği görece yüksek büyüme ve karbondioksit salımında sergileyemediği iyileşme nedenleriyle 2,0 ℃ hedefine uzak kaldığı sonucuna varıldığından, toplam enerji temininde teknolojik dönüşüme ihtiyacı olduğu değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İklim değişikliği, küresel ısınma, yeşil büyüme, karbon verimliliği

EVALUATION OF TÜRKİYE'S GREEN GROWTH PERFORMANCE BASED ON CARBON EFFICIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Öz

Today, it has become clear beyond any doubt that climate change is one of the most serious threats to the future of the Earth. It is also known that climate change is largely triggered by human activities. For this reason, countries party to the Paris Agreement agreed to limit the increase in average surface temperature to 2.0 ℃ compared to the pre-industrialization level by 2100. The green growth model has been adopted to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction required for this target without compromising economic growth. In this study, firstly, the compliance of the green growth model with the Paris Agreement was ensured with the help of the definition of real green growth (RGG). It has been shown that the annual carbon efficiency increase must be 5% in order to achieve the RGG, in other words to reach the 2.0 ℃ target, considering the global economic growth projection and greenhouse gas emission scenario used in this study. Then, Türkiye's RGG performance was compared with selected countries and country groups between 2004-2020. Since it was concluded that Türkiye remained far from the 2.0 ℃ target due to the relatively high growth recorded and the lack of improvement in carbon dioxide emissions during the study period, it was evaluated that Türkiye needs a technological transformation in total energy supply.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate change, global warming, green growth, carbon productivity

Kaynakça

• Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Homma, T., Tokushige, K., Nagashima, M. ve Tomoda, T. (2014). Assessment of the Emission Reduction Target of Halving Co2 Emissions by 2050: Macro-Factors Analysis and Model Analysis Under Newly Developed Socio-Economic Scenarios. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(3-4), 246-256.
• Baker, S. (2006). Sustainable Development. London and New York: Routledge.
• Beinhocker, E., Oppenheim, J., Irons, B., Lahti, M., Farrell, D., Nyquist, S. vd. (2008). The Carbon Productivity Challenge: Curbing Climate Change and Sustaining Economic Growth. Sydney: McKinsey Global Institute.
• Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Birleşmiş Milletler (BM). (1992). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Erişim adresi https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/ application/pdf/conveng.pdf
• Birleşmiş Milletler (BM). (1997). Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Erişim adresi https://unfccc.int/documents/2409
• Birleşmiş Milletler (BM). (2012). Rio+20 The Future We Want: Outcome Document Adopted at Rio+20. Erişim adresi https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/13662/ N1238164.pdf? sequence=1&amp%3BisAllowed=
• Cohen, G., Jalles, J. T., Loungani, P. ve Marto, R. (2018). The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters. Energy Policy, 118, 58-68.
• D’Alisa, G., Demaria, F. ve Kallis, G. (2015). Degrowth: A Vocabulary for a New Era, New York: Routledge.
• Demiral, M. ve Demiral, O. (2021). Where is the Gray Side of Green Growth? Theoretical Insights, Policy Directions, and Evidence from a Multidimensional Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(45), 63905-63930.
• Diniz, E. M. ve Bermann, C. (2012). Green Economy and Sustainability. Estudos Avançados, 26, 323-330.
• European Commission (EC). (2017). Green Economy - Opportunities for Rural Europe. Erişim adresi https://ec.europa.eu/enrd/sites/default/files/publi-enrd-rr-23-2017-en.pdf
• European Commission (EC). (2019). The European Green Deal. Erişim adresi https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en
• The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (GCEC). (2014). Better Growth, Better Climate. Erişim adresi https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/ documents/1595The NewClimateEconomyReport.pdf
• Giampietro, M. ve Mayumi, K. (2018). Unraveling the Complexity of the Jevons Paradox: The Link Between Innovation, Efficiency, and Sustainability. Frontiers in Energy Research, 6, 26.
• Hickel, J. ve Kallis, G. (2020). Is Green Growth Possible? New Political Economy, 25(4), 469-486.
• Houssam, N., Ibrahiem, D. M., Sucharita, S., El-Aasar, K. M., Esily, R. R. ve Sethi, N. (2023). Assessing the Role of Green Economy on Sustainable Development in Developing Countries. Heliyon, 9(6), e17306.
• Hussain, Z., Mehmood, B., Khan, M. K. ve Tsimisaraka, R. S. M. (2022). Green Growth, Green Technology, and Environmental Health: Evidence from High-GDP Countries. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 816697.
• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023a). World Energy Statistics, IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database). Erişim adresi https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00510-en
• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023b). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Data Explorer. Erişim adresi https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer
• Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). (2023). Ecological Threat Report 2023: Analyzing Ecological Threats, Resilience and Peace. Erişim adresi http://visionofhumanity.org/resources
• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IISA). (2022). AR6 Scenarios Database. Erişim adresi data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Geneva: IPCC.
• Jung, H., Lee, J., Song, C. K. (2023). Carbon Productivity and Volatility. Finance Research Letters, 56, 104052.
• Rigaud, K. K., Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K. vd. (2018). Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2011). Towards Green Growth, A Summary for Policy Makers. Erişim adresi https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/ 48012345.pdf
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023a). Long-term Baseline Projections, No. 109 (Edition 2021), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). Erişim adresi https://doi.org/10.1787/cbdb49e6-en
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023b). Air and Climate: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source, OECD Environment Statistics (database). Erişim adresi https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00594-en
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023c). Green Growth Indicators, OECD Environment Statistics (database). Erişim adresi https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00665-en
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023d). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (indicator). Erişim adresi doi: 10.1787/dc2f7aec-en
• Rusu, M. C. (2013). Eco-innovation and Its Contribution to Sustainable Development and Competitiveness. Network Intelligence Studies, 1(02), 127-135.
• Sandberg, M., Klockars, K. ve Wilén, K. (2019). Green Growth or Degrowth? Assessing the Normative Justifications for Environmental Sustainability and Economic Growth through Critical Social Theory. Journal of Cleaner Production, 206, 133-141.
• Stoknes, P. E. ve Rockström, J. (2018). Redefining Green Growth within Planetary Boundaries. Energy Research and Social Science, 44, 41-49.
• Tarı Özgür, M. (2021). Yenilenebilir Enerjinin Türkiye'nin Erişilebilir ve Temiz Enerji Amacına Katkıları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Z. Doğan Çalışkan ve S. G. Beşballı (Der.), Güncel İktisadi Tartışmalar içinde (149-172). Ankara: Gazi Yayın Dağıtım.
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2011). Towards a Green Economy Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication. A Synthesis for Policy Makers. Erişim adresi https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/126GER_synthesis_ en.pdf
• United Nations Economic and Social Comission for Asia and the Pasific (UNESCAP). (2013). Green Growth Indicators: A Practical Approach for Asia and the Pacific. Erişim adresi https://unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/GGI_2014.pdf
• Weiss, M. ve Cattaneo, C. (2017). Degrowth – Taking Stock and Reviewing an Emerging Academic Paradigm. Ecological Economics, 137, 220-230.
• World Bank (WB). (2012). Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development. Erişim adresi https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/8fd 533cc-8dd2-5a0a-820b-2de519108f52/content