MERKEZ BANKASI ULUSLARARASI REZERVLERİNİ DÖVİZ KURU KONTROLÜNDE KULLANDI MI?
Yıl 2024,
, 57 - 62, 31.07.2024
Tayfur Bayat
,
Mustafa Çolak
Öz
Para politikası amaçlarından bir tanesi de döviz kurunda istikrarının sağlanmasıdır. Bu amaçla birlikte merkez bankalarının elinde bir çok enstirüman olmakla birlikte uluslararası rezervlerde bunlardan bir tanesidiri Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin Ocak 2006- Nisan 2024 döneminde uluslararası rezervlerin döviz kuru istikrarında kullanılıp kullanılmadığı sorusu cevaplanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Amprik analizler sonucunda Mayıs-Eylül 2010, Temmuz-Kasım 2013 dönemlerinde merkez bankasının nominal döviz kurunu kontrol etmek amacıyla uluslararası rezervleri yoğun bir şekilde kullandığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.
Kaynakça
- Afzal, M. (2010). Exchange rate and reserves in Asian countries: Causality test. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 215-223.
- Aizenmen, J. ve Marion, N. (2002). The High Demand for International Reserves in the Far East: What Is Going On?, NBER Working Paper No. 9266 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).
- Aizenman, J. ve Lee, J. (2005). International reserves: Precautionary vs. mercantilist views, Theory and evidence. IMF WP/05/198.
- Aizenman, J. ve Lee, J. (2008). Financial versus monetary mercantilism: Long-run view of large international reserves hoarding. World Economy, 31(5), 593-611.
- Balcılar, M., Özdemir, Z. A. ve Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
- Calvo, G.,ve Carmen M. R., (1999). When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, in P. Kenen and A. Swoboda, Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Caramazza, F., L. A. Ricci, ve R. Salgado, (2004). International Financial Contagion in Currency Crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 23, pp. 51–70.
- Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072
- Devereux, B. ve Philip R., 2003. Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 50 , pp. 109–132.
- Eichengreen, B. J. ve Mathieson, D. J. (2000). The currency composition of foreign exchange reserves - retrospectand prospect. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Frankel, J. (2019). Systematic managed floating. Open Economies Review, 30, 255-295.
- Gourinchas, P. ve Rey, H. (2014). From world banker to world venture capitalist: US external adjustment and the exorbitant privilege, nber chapters, in: G7 current account ımbalances: Sustainability and adjustment, 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, B.E. ve P.C.B. Phillips (1990), “Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study”, Advances in Econometrics, 8, 225-248.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2003). Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability. IMF.
Jeanne, O. ve Ranciere, R. (2006). The optimal level of ınternational reserves for emerging market countries: Formulas and applications. IMF Working Paper WP/ 06/229.
- Johnson, H.G. ve Fung, K. C. (2014). International Finance. Routledge.
- Mulder, C., Perrelli, R. ve Rocha, M., 2002. The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention, IMF Working Paper 02/59 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Magud, N. E., Reinhart, C. M. ve Vesperoni, E. R. (2019). Capital inflows, exchange rate flexibility and credit booms. Rev. Dev. Econ., 18, 415–430.
- Mishkin, F.S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
- Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K. (1995). The mirage of fixed exchange rates. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4): 73-96.
- Özek, Y. ve Ergür, H. O. (2022). The causality test on exchange market pressure on output in Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(2), 884-894.
- Park, J.Y. (1992), “Canonical Cointegrating Regressions”, Econometrica, 60(1), 119-143
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Rey, H. (2013). Capital flows: Assessing the costs, hunting for the gains, presented at the IMF research conference on Rethinking macroeconomic policy, Washington DC.
- Stock, J.H., ve M.W. Watson (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
- Svensson, L. ve Woodford, M. (2016). Indicator variables for optimal policy. NBER Working Paper No. w7953.
DID THE CENTRAL BANK USE INTERNATIONAL RESERVES FOR EXCHANGE RATE CONTROL?
Yıl 2024,
, 57 - 62, 31.07.2024
Tayfur Bayat
,
Mustafa Çolak
Öz
One of the objectives of monetary policy is to stabilize the exchange rate. For this purpose, central banks have many instruments at their disposal and international reserves are one of them. This study aims to answer the question of whether international reserves were used for exchange rate stability in the Turkish economy between January 2006 and April 2024. The empirical analysis reveals that the central bank used international reserves intensively to control the nominal exchange rate during May-September 2010 and July-November 2013 periods.
Kaynakça
- Afzal, M. (2010). Exchange rate and reserves in Asian countries: Causality test. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 215-223.
- Aizenmen, J. ve Marion, N. (2002). The High Demand for International Reserves in the Far East: What Is Going On?, NBER Working Paper No. 9266 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).
- Aizenman, J. ve Lee, J. (2005). International reserves: Precautionary vs. mercantilist views, Theory and evidence. IMF WP/05/198.
- Aizenman, J. ve Lee, J. (2008). Financial versus monetary mercantilism: Long-run view of large international reserves hoarding. World Economy, 31(5), 593-611.
- Balcılar, M., Özdemir, Z. A. ve Arslantürk, Y. (2010). Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
- Calvo, G.,ve Carmen M. R., (1999). When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, in P. Kenen and A. Swoboda, Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Caramazza, F., L. A. Ricci, ve R. Salgado, (2004). International Financial Contagion in Currency Crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 23, pp. 51–70.
- Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072
- Devereux, B. ve Philip R., 2003. Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 50 , pp. 109–132.
- Eichengreen, B. J. ve Mathieson, D. J. (2000). The currency composition of foreign exchange reserves - retrospectand prospect. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Frankel, J. (2019). Systematic managed floating. Open Economies Review, 30, 255-295.
- Gourinchas, P. ve Rey, H. (2014). From world banker to world venture capitalist: US external adjustment and the exorbitant privilege, nber chapters, in: G7 current account ımbalances: Sustainability and adjustment, 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, B.E. ve P.C.B. Phillips (1990), “Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study”, Advances in Econometrics, 8, 225-248.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2003). Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability. IMF.
Jeanne, O. ve Ranciere, R. (2006). The optimal level of ınternational reserves for emerging market countries: Formulas and applications. IMF Working Paper WP/ 06/229.
- Johnson, H.G. ve Fung, K. C. (2014). International Finance. Routledge.
- Mulder, C., Perrelli, R. ve Rocha, M., 2002. The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention, IMF Working Paper 02/59 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Magud, N. E., Reinhart, C. M. ve Vesperoni, E. R. (2019). Capital inflows, exchange rate flexibility and credit booms. Rev. Dev. Econ., 18, 415–430.
- Mishkin, F.S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
- Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K. (1995). The mirage of fixed exchange rates. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4): 73-96.
- Özek, Y. ve Ergür, H. O. (2022). The causality test on exchange market pressure on output in Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(2), 884-894.
- Park, J.Y. (1992), “Canonical Cointegrating Regressions”, Econometrica, 60(1), 119-143
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Rey, H. (2013). Capital flows: Assessing the costs, hunting for the gains, presented at the IMF research conference on Rethinking macroeconomic policy, Washington DC.
- Stock, J.H., ve M.W. Watson (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
- Svensson, L. ve Woodford, M. (2016). Indicator variables for optimal policy. NBER Working Paper No. w7953.