Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 2, 193 - 228, 01.08.2017

Serkan Öztürk

Öz

Bu çalışmada, sismotektonik b-değeri, fraktal boyut Dc-değeri ve öncü sismik durgunluk Z-değeri ile bunlar arasındaki ilişkileri
kullanarak, sismik olarak dünyadaki en aktif doğrultu atımlı fay sistemlerinden biri olan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve civarı
için depremselliğin bölgesel ve zamana bağlı değişimleri analiz edilmiştir. b-değeri ile Dc-değeri arasında güncel ve güvenilir
bir istatistiksel ilişki ortaya koyabilmek için, birkaç regresyon yöntemi test edilmiştir. KAFZ ve civarı için, Ortogonal regresyon
uyumu ile çok güçlü negatif ilişki katsayısına (r=-0.98) sahip Dc=2.46-0.58*b ilişkisi daha güvenilir olarak hesaplanmıştır.
b ve Dc-değerlerinin zamana bağlı değişimlerinde önemli dalgalanmalar görülmüştür ve sonuçta, 2012-2013 yılları arasında
b-değerlerindeki azalım ile Dc-değerlerindeki artış eğilimi, KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyeli açısından önemli
olabilir. 1.0’dan küçük b-değerleri ile 1.85’ten büyük Dc-değerleri Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, Pülümür fayı ve Erzincan
civarı, Pülümür-Karlıova arası, Sancak-Uzunpınar ve Göynük fay zonlarını içerisinde alan bölgelerde gözlenmiştir. 2016 yılı başında,
Enez, Etili fayının kuzeyi, Çanakkale ve Edremit, Tekirdağ-Silivri ve Marmara denizi, Karadeniz kısmı ve Yalova-İzmit civarı,
Manyas fay zonunun kuzeyi, İznik-Gebze, Düzce fayı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, İsmetpaşa segmenti ile Laçin-Merzifon fay zonları ve
civarında sismik durgunluk anomalileri gözlenmiştir. Hem en düşük b-değeri hem de en yüksek Dc-değeri ile yüksek Z-değerine
sahip bölgeler ise Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyılarıdır. Önemli bir sonuç olarak, bu sismotektonik parametrelerin birlikte değerlendirilmesi,
KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyelini ortaya koymada bazı önemli ipuçları sağlayabilir ve bu anomali
alanları gelecek depremlerin olası bölgeleri olarak yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

b-değeri, fraktal boyut, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu, öncü sismik durgunluk, regresyon

Kaynakça

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