TTIP Projesi ile Beklenen Tarife Değişimlerinin Türkiye Demir Çelik İhracatı Açısından Anlamı ve Değerlendirilmesi

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 621 - 648, 18.08.2017

Yasin Bıyık

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.335272

Öz

Son yıllarda AB ve ABD arasında tartışılagelen TTIP projesi, dünya çapında mevcut iktisadi dengeleri değiştirme potansiyeli taşıyan önemli bir projedir. TTIP sürecinin ilerleyen dönemlerinde Türkiye’nin sürece dahil olma yada olmama durumu ile ilgili farklı senaryolar altında endüstriyel ön inceleme ve analizlerin yapılması, gelecekteki gelişmelere hazırlıklı olunabilmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışma ile TTIP projesi neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde istihdam, uluslararası ticaret hacmi, diğer endüstrilerle güçlü bağları, milli gelire katkısı açısından dikkate değer olarak düşünülen demir çelik endüstrisi ihracatındaki olası etkiler değerlendirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Türkiye’nin TTIP projesine taraf olması özellikle ABD ile karşılıklı tarifelerin giderilmesi neticesinde ihracat açısından artış sağlayabilecektir. Bu çalışmada, ticaret akışlarının modellenmesinde çekim modelinden faydalanılmış, dışsal değişken olarak TTIP projesinin ilgili ekonomilerde yaratacağı tarife değişimleri ve STA varlığı üzerinden ihracat değişimi bağımlı değişken olarak analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik olarak, statik ve dinamik (GMM) panel veri analizlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, tarife değişken katsayısı negatif (istatistiksel anlamlı) ve STA yapay değişken katsayısı ise yalnızca GMM (dinamik model yaklaşımı altında) yöntemi altında pozitif (istatistiksel anlamsız) olarak tespit edilmiştir. Hesaplanan katsayıların istatistiksel aralıkları dikkate alınarak uygulanan simülasyon uygulama sonuçlarına göre; ABD ile uygulanagelen tarife seviyelerinin giderilmesi, Türkiye için demir çelik ihacatında önemli seviyede (%18-24) artış yaratabilecektir. Ayrıca, TTIP’in küresel ölçekte yaratabileceği tarife azaltım dalgasının da Türkiye demir çelik ihracatı açısından anlamı dikkate değerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

TTIP (Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı/Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), Türkiye Demir-Çelik İhracatı, Çekim Modeli, Monte-Carlo Simülasyonu

Meaning and Evaluation of Tariff Changes Expected with TTIP Project in terms of Iron and Steel Exports of Turkey

Öz

TTIP project which has been discussing among the EU and USA in recent years is a significant one that carrying potential to change current economical balances throughout the world. Industrial preliminary examination and analyses under the TTIP scenarios whether Turkey will be involved or not in to the processes of the project are important to be able to get ready for developments in future. Through this study, potential effects of TTIP project on exports of iron and steel industry that is considered as remarkable regarding its contribution into economies of Turkey in terms of employment, international trade volume, strong connection with other industries, and additive to the national income are tried to be evaluated. As being part of TTIP particularly through removing tariffs bilaterally with USA, Turkey might be get increase in its exports. In this study, the gravity model is utilized for modeling the trade flows, changing of exports as a dependent variable is analyzed under the conditions of tariff changes and existence of FTA as exogenous variables those are affected by the TTIP project. Static and dynamic (GMM) panel data analyses are utilized econometrically. According to results, coefficient of tariff is estimated as negative (statistically significant) and coefficient of FTA variable is estimated as positive (statistically insignificant) only through GMM method (under dynamic model approach). Based on simulation study results applied through statistical ranges of calculated coefficients; removing tariffs have being applied with USA means significant raise (%18-24) of iron and steel exports of Turkey. Additionally, tariff reduction wave on a global scale that could be initiated by TTIP is considerable for iron and steel export of Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

TTIP (Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı/Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), Türkiye Demir-Çelik İhracatı, Çekim Modeli, Monte-Carlo Simülasyonu

Kaynakça

• Akman M. Sait AB-ABD Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı: Türkiye Açısından Bir Değerlendirme [Dergi] // Ankara Avrupa Çalışmaları Dergisi. - 2014. - s. Cilt:13, No:1, 1-29.
• Akman Sait, Evenett Simon J. ve Low Patrick Catalyst? TTIP’s Impact on the Rest [Rapor]. - London, UK : Centre for Economic Policy Research-TEPAV, 2015. Anderson J A theoretical foundation of the gravity model [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : American Economy Review, 1979. - 106-116 : Cilt 69.
• Anderson J.E. ve van Wincoop E. Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : American Economic Review 93: 170–92, 2003.
• Anderson Michael A. ve Ferrantino Michael J. Monte Carlos Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : U.S. International Trade Commision, Office of Economics Working Paper, 2004. - No. 2004-05-A.
• Antonucci Daniele ve Manzocchi Stefano Does Turkey have a special trade relation wtih the EU? A gravity model approach [Dergi] // Economic Systems 30. - 2006. - s. 157-169.
• Arellano M. Panel Data Econometrics [Kitap]. - Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2003.
• Arita Shawn, Beckman Jayson ve Mitchell Lorraine Reducing transatlantic barriers on U.S.-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains? [Dergi] // Food Policy 68. - 2017. - s. 233-247.
• Babetskaia-Kukharchuk Oxana ve Maurel Mathilde Russia’s accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (2004) 680–699, 2004.
• Baldwin R. ve Taglioni D. Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equations [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12516, NBER, 2006.
• Beer Elisabeth [ve diğerleri] The Consequences of TTIP for employees [Rapor]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : FEPS Policy Brief, 2016.
• Behr Andreas A comparison of dynamic panel data estimators: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to the investment function [Dergi] // Discussion paper 05/03 Economic Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank. - 2003.
• Berden Koen G. [ve diğerleri] Non-Tariff Measures in EU-US Trade and Investment – An Economic Analysis [Rapor]. - Rotterdam : ECORYS Nederland BV, 2009.
• Bergstrand J. H. The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition and the factor-proportions theory in international trade [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : The Review of Economics and Statistics 71(1):143–53, 1989.
• Bergstrand J. H. The gravity equation in international trade: some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : The Review of Economics and Statistics 67(3): 474–81, 1985.
• Berument M. Hakan, Dincer N. Nergiz ve Mustafaoglu Zafer External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Economic Modelling 37, 476–484, 2014.
• Brakman Steven, Kohl Tristan ve Marrewijk Charles Van The Impact of the Transatlantic Trade&Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Low Income Countries: Agreement heterogeneity and supply chain linkages [Rapor]. - The Netherlands : The Directorate for Trade Policy and International Economic Governance, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2015.
• Bun Maurice J.G. ve Klaassen Franc J.G.M. The Importance of Dynamics in Panel Gravity Models of Trade [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : University of Amsterdam, 2002.
• Buongiorno Joseph [ve diğerleri] Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector [Dergi] // Journal of Forest Economics 20. - 2014. - s. 252-266.
• Cai Songfeng, Zhang Yaxiong ve Meng Bo Spillover Effects of TTIP on BRICS Economies: A Dynamic GVS-Based CGE Model [Rapor]. - Chiba, Japan : Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO, 2015.
• Capaldo Jeronim The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability [Dergi]. - Melford, USA : Global Development and Environment Institute, 2014. - Cilt Working Paper No. 14-03.
• Chaney T. Distorted gravity: the intensive and extensive margins of international trade [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : American Economic Review 98: 1707–21, 2008.
• Cheptea A., Gohin A. ve Huchet-Bourdon Maryline Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: who bears the trade costs? [Dergi] // 2emes journees de recherches en sciences sociales / INRA SFER CIRAD. - 2006.
• Cipollina Maria [ve diğerleri] A Note on Dummies For Policies in Gravity Models: A Monte Carlo Experiment [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Dipartimento di Economia Università degli studi Roma Tre, 2013. - Cilt ISSN 2279‐6916 Working papers n° 180.
• Clark Peter [ve diğerleri] Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows-Some New Evidence [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : IMF, 2004.
• Czarny E. ve Folfas P. World Trade and Regional Trade Orientation in the Contxt of Forthcoming Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership [Dergi] // Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy 10(3). - 2015. - s. 105-128.
• Çeştepe Hamza ve Mıstaçoğlu Tuğba Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Entegrasyon: ASEAN ve MERCOSUR Örneği [Dergi] // Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt: 17 Sayı:2. - 2010. - s. 93-106.
• Deardorff A.V. Determinants of bilateral trade: does gravity work in a neoclasical world? [Dergi]. - Chicago and London : The Regionalization of the World Economy. University of Chicago Press, 1998. - 7-32.
• Deloitte The Iron and Steel Industry in Turkey [Rapor]. - Ankara : Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey, 2013.
• Dhar S. ve Panagariya A. Is East Asia Less Open than North America and the EEC? No. [Dergi] // International Trade Policy and the Pacific Rim. - 1999.
• Dobrea Razvan Catalin, Podgoreanu Iulia Xenia ve Borisov Daniela Liliana The Impact of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the European Eco-Innovation [Dergi] // Procedia Economics and Finance 27. - 2015. - s. 659-668.
• Eaton J. ve Kortum S. Technology, geography and trade [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Econometrica 70: 1741–79, 2002.
• ECORYS Impact Assessment of TTIP for Belgium [Rapor]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Ecorys Nederland BV, University of Bern, Worl Trade Institute, Cambridge Econometrics, IDEA Consult NV, 2016.
• ECORYS Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the European Union and the United States of America [Rapor]. - Rotterdam : ECORYS Nederland BV, 2014.
• Egger Peter [ve diğerleri] Non-Tariff Barriers, Integration and the Trans-Atlantic Economy [Rapor]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Oxford Economic Policy, 2014.
• Egger Peter An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials [Dergi]. - Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2002.
• Erixon Fredrik ve Bauer Matthias A Transatlantic Zero Agreement: Estimating the Gains from Transatlantic Free Trade in Goods [Rapor]. - Brussels, Belgium : ECIPE Occasional Paper, No. 4/2010, 2010.
• Federal Environment Agency Environmental protection under TTIP [Rapor]. - Germany : Unwelt Bundesamt, 2015.
• Feenstra R. Advanced International Trade [Kitap]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : MIT Press, 2004.
• Felbermayr Gabriel [ve diğerleri] Dimensions and Effects of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement Between the EU and US [Rapor]. - Munich : ifo Institut- International Trade Department, 2013.
• Felbermayr Gabriel [ve diğerleri] Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: A high resolution perspective for Europe and the world [Konferans] // Economic Policy Sixtieth Panel Meeting Hosted by the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF). - Rome : [yazarı bilinmiyor], 2014.
• Felbermayr Gabriel [ve diğerleri] Potential impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on developing and emerging economies [Rapor]. - München : Ifo Center for International Economics, 2015.
• Felbermayr Gabriel, Heid Benedikt ve Larch Mario TTIP: Small Gains, High Risks? [Dergi] // CESifo Forum 4. - 2014.
• Felbermayr Gabriel, Heid Benedikt ve Lehwald Sybille Transatlantic Free Trade: Winners, Losers and Necessary Accompanying Measures [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Law and Business Review of the Americas, 2013.
• Felbermayr Gabriel, Heid Benedikt ve Lehwald Sybille Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Who benefits from a free trade deal? [Rapor]. - Munchen : Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2013.
• Fontagne Lionel, Gourdon Julien ve Jean Sebastien Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences? [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Policy Brief CEPII, 2013.
• Francois Joseph [ve diğerleri] Reducing Trans-Atlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment [Rapor]. - London, UK : Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2013. Frankel Jeffrey A. ve Romer David Does Trade Cause Growth? [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : The American Economic Review, 1999. - No.3 s.379-399 : Cilt Vo.89.
• Freytag Andreas, Draper Peter ve Fricke Susanne The Impact of TTIP, Volume 1: Economic Effects on the Transatlantic Partners, Third Countries and The Global Trade Order [Rapor]. - Berlin : Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V, 2014.
• Gostomski Eugeniusz ve Michalowski Tomasz Negotiations on the Transatlantic Free Trade Area. Effects of the Proposed Agreement on the Economies of the European Union and the United States of America [Dergi] // European Integration Studies. - 2015/9. - s. 127-138.
• Greenaway David ve Milner Chris Regionalism and Gravity [Rapor]. - The University of Nottingham : Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy, 2002.
• Gujarati Damodar N. ve Porter Dawn C. Temel Ekonometri [Kitap]. - İstanbul : Literatür Yayınları: 656; Çevirenler: Ümit Şenesen, Gülay Günlük Şenesen, 2012.
• Güneş Didem, Mavuş Merve ve Oduncu Arif AB-ABD Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması ve Türkiye Üzerine Etkileri [Dergi] // Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. - 2013. - s. Sayı: 2013-30.
• Hamilton Daniel S. ve Quinlan Joseph P. The Transatlantic Economy 2015: Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe [Rapor]. - Washington, DC : Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2015. - s. 1.
• Helpman E. ve Krugman P.R. Market Structure and Foreign Trade [Dergi]. - Cambridge : MIT Press, 1985.
• Helpman E., Melitz M. ve Rubinstein Y. Trading partners and trade volumes [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Quarterly Journal of Economics 123: 441–87, 2008.
• Helpman Elhanan Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1986. - 62-81 : Cilt 1.
• Hertel Thomas [ve diğerleri] How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements? [Dergi] // Economic Modeling 24. - 2007. - s. 611-635.
• Hilary John The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership [Rapor]. - Brussels, Belgium : Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung, 2013. Kirişçi Kemal TTIP’S ENLARGEMENT AND THE CASE OF TURKEY [Rapor]. - Washington, DC : Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2015.
• Koç Yurtkur Asuman ve Tay Bayramoğlu Arzu Export Dynamics in Emerging Market Economies [Dergi] // Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt:19 Sayı:1. - 2012. - s. 19-33.
• Köten Abdullah Küresel ve Bölgesel Ticari Gelişmeler: TTIP ve Türkiye [Rapor]. - Yayın No:64 : Ankara Sanayi Odası Yayını, 2015.
• Krugman P. Scale economies, product differentiation and the pattern of trade [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : American Economic Review 70: 950–9, 1980.
• Krugman Paul R. ve Obstfeld Maurice International Economics: Theory & Policy [Kitap]. - Boston : The Addison-Wesley, 2009. - Cilt 8. Edition.
• Lejour Arjan [ve diğerleri] Economic Incentives for Indirect TTIP Spillovers [Dergi]. - Brussels : Centre for European Policy Studies, 2014. - TTIP Series No. 2 : Cilt No. 94.
• Martin Will ve Pham Cong S. Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows Are Frequent and Economically Determined [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : World Bank Group, Policy Research Working Paper 7308, 2015.
• Martínez-Zarzoso Inmaculada, D. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann ve Horsewood Nicholas Are regional trading agreements beneficial? Static and dynamic panel gravity models [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : North American Journal of Economics and Finance 20, 46–65, 2009.
• McKitrick R.Ross The Econometric Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: The Role of Parameter Estimation [Dergi] // Economic Modeling 15. - 1998. - s. 543-573.
• OECD The Benefits of Liberalising Product Markets and Reducing Barriers to International Trade and Investment in the OECD [Rapor] : Working Papers, No. 463 / OECD Economics Department. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : OECD Publishing, 2005.
• Özcan Burcu ve Özçelebi Oğuzhan İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi? [Dergi] // Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt:20 Sayı:1. - 2013. - s. 1-14.
• Özçelik Seda Ekmen Turkey's Competition with the EU in the US Market in the Context of TTIP [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 5, 2016. - 198-201.
• Pavlova Pavlina Beyond economics: the geopolitical importance of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership [Dergi] // European View 14. - 2015. - s. 209-216.
• Pelkmans Jacques [ve diğerleri] EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Detailed Appraisal by the EP Ex-ante Impact Assessment Unit of the European Commission’s Impact Assessment [Rapor]. - Brussels : EPRS, 2014.
• Pelkmans Jacques TTIP: Political and Economic Rationale and Implications [Rapor]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Intereconomics Forum, 2015.
• Piermartini Roberta ve Teh Robert Demystifying Modelling Methods For Trade Policy [Dergi]. - Geneva, Switzerland : World Trade Organization, 2005. - s.52 : Cilt Discussion Paper No 10.
• Plummer Michael G., Cheong David ve Hamanaka Shintaro Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements [Kitap]. - Philippines : Asian Development Bank, 2010.
• Ponce Jaime Garcia-Legaz ve Quinlan Joseph TAFTA: The Case for an Open Transatlantic Free Trade Area [Kitap]. - Spain : FAES Foundation for Social Studies and Analysis, 2013.
• Powers William M. Endogenous Liberalization and Sectoral Trade [Rapor]. - Washington, DC : U.S. International Trade Commission Office of Economics Working Paper, 2007.
• Raza Werner [ve diğerleri] ASSESS__TTIP: Assessing the Claimed Benefits of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) [Rapor]. - Vienna, Austria : Austrian Foundation for Development Research, OFSE, 2014.
• Rojas-Romagosa Hugo Potential economic effects of TTIP for the Netherlands and the EU [Dergi] // CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. - 2016.
• Rose A. ve van Wincoop E. National money as a barrier to international trade: the real case for currency union [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : American Economic Review 91(2): 386–90, 2001.
• Santos Silva J. ve Tenreyro S. The log of gravity [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : The Review of Economics and Statistics 88: 641–58, 2006.
• Schneider Michael Mobilising the masses: a grass-roots communication strategy for TTIP [Dergi] // European View 14. - 2015. - s. 201-207.
• SER Key points of SER's advisory report on TTIP [Rapor]. - The Netherlands : Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, 2016.
• Şahin İlker Demir Çelik Sektörü [Rapor]. - İstanbul : Türkiye İş Bankası İktisadi Araştırmalar Bölümü, 2015.
• The World Bank Evaluation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union [Rapor]. - 2014.
• Timbergen Jan Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy [Dergi]. - New York : Twentieth Century Fund, 1962.
• Trapani Lorenzo ve Urga Giovanni Optimal forecasting with heterogeneous panels: A Monte Carlo study [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : International Journal of Forecasting 25, 2009. - 567-586.
• TÜRKONFED Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı'nın (TTIP) Türkiye'deki KOBİ'lere Etkisi ve Politika Önerileri [Rapor]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Türk Girişim ve İş Dünyası Konfederasyonu, 2016.
• Urata Shujiro ve Okabe Misa The Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : RIETI Discussion Paper Series 07-E-052, 2007.
• Ülengin Füsun [ve diğerleri] Effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade: A gravity model [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Transport Policy 38, 1–7, 2015. Vandenbussche H., Wooton I. ve Venables A. Enhancing economic cooperation between the EU and the Americas: an economic assessment [Rapor]. - University of Strathclyde Glasgow : CEPR, 2002.
• Villaverde Jose ve Maza Adolfo The Effects of the TTIP on EU Countries: An Ex-Ante Evaluation [Dergi]. - [basım yeri bilinmiyor] : Revista De Economia Mundial 42, 2016. - 169-192.
• Westerlund Joakim ve Wilhelmsson Fredrik Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data [Dergi]. - Lund, Sweden : Department of Economics, Lund University, 2006.
• WTO A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis [Rapor]. - Geneva, Switzerland : United Nations and World Trade Organization, 2012.
• Xiong Bo ve Chen Sixia Estimating Gravity Equation Models in the Presence of Sample Selection and Heteroskedasticity [Konferans]. - Seattle, Washington : Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2012 AAEA Annual Meeting, 2012.
• Zsohar Peter Short Introduction to the Generalized Method of Moments [Dergi] // Hungarian Statistical Review, Special Number 16