BIST 100'ün Rusya'nın Ukrayna İşgaline Tepkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 3, 597 - 610, 14.09.2023

Selvihan Taşdelen

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1203382

Öz

Dünyanın herhangi bir yerinde yaşanan finansal ve siyasi krizler, sosyal ve politik olaylar, salgın hastalıklar ve savaşlar, ülkelerdeki tüm sektörleri etkilemektedir. Global ekonomiler, Covid 19 salgınının oluşturduğu yaraları sarmaya çalışırken, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşıyla birlikte yeni bir belirsizlik ortamının içerisine girmiştir. Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı 24 Şubat 2022 tarihinde işgaliyle başlayan savaşın, dünya ekonomisi ve finansal piyasalar üzerinde pek çok etkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu savaşla birlikte tüm dünyada petrol, enerji, gıda ve emtia piyasaları olumsuz etkilenmiştir. Dolayısıyla Covid 19 salgını sonrası küresel olarak ekonomilerde beklenen toparlanma gecikmiştir. Savaşla beraber tüm dünyada ekonomilerinde mevcut belirsizlik ortamı daha da derinleşmiştir. Bu belirsizlik ortamından, savaşa taraf olanlarla beraber taraf olmayanlar da etkilenmektedir. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı, tüm ülkelere ekonomik bir maliyet yüklemiştir. Ayrıca dünyadaki tüm finansal piyasalarda savaşın devam etmesi nedeniyle belirsizlikle beraber risk ortamıda oluşmuştur. Bu çerçevede, bu çalışma ile Rusya ve Ukrayna arasında devam eden savaşa, BIST 100 endeksinin verdiği tepki ölçülmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Rusya’nın Ukrayna'yı işgal etmeye başladığı 24 Şubat 2022 tarihinin öncesi ve sonrası dönemleri kapsayan, 05.08.2021-05.09.2022 tarihleri arasında, BIST 100 Endeksinin değişimleri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada investing.com adresinden elde edilen verilerin analizi, R programında 4.2.0 "Vigorous Calisthenics" versiyonunda yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre yapısal kırılma analizinde dikkate alınan dönem içerisinde savaşın BIST 100 üzerinde farklı etkilerinin olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Rusya, Ukrayna, İşgal, BIST 100, ARIMA
JEL Sınıflandırması: G1

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Ukrayna, İşgal, Bist 100, ARIMA

The Reaction of BIST 100 to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Econometric Analysis

Öz

Financial and political crises, social and political events, epidemics and wars in one part of the world affect all sectors. While global economies are trying to heal the wounds of the Covid 19 epidemic, they have entered a new uncertainty with the Russia-Ukraine war. The war between Russia and Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022, has different effects on the world economy and financial markets.With this war, oil, energy, food and commodity markets all over the world were adversely affected. Therefore, the expected recovery in the global economy after the Covid 19 epidemic was delayed With the war, the current uncertainty in the economies of the world has deepened. Both the parties to the war and the non-parties are affected by this environment of uncertainty. The Russia-Ukraine war has imposed an economic cost on all countries. In addition, as the war continues in all financial markets, a risk environment has emerged with uncertainty. This study aims to quantify how the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the BIST 100 index. In this study, it was attempted to establish the changes in the BIST 100 Index between 05.08.2021 and 05.09.2022, which covered the time before and after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022.Data from investing.com were analyzed in R program in version 4.2.0 "Vigorous Calisthenics". According to the study's findings, some effects of the war on BIST 100 emerged during the period taken into account in the structural break analysis.
Key Words: Russia, Ukraine, Occupation, BIST 100, ARIMA
JEL Classification: G

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Ukrayna, İşgal, Bist 100, ARIMA

Kaynakça

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