Öz
Lojistik regresyon analizi ikili veya çoklu kategorik
yapıdaki bağımlı değişkenin bağımsız değişkenlerle neden sonuç ilişkisini
belirlemede yararlanılan bir yöntemdir. Bu çalışmada buzağı ölü doğum oranları
üzerine buzağı cinsiyeti, laktasyon sırası ve buzağılama yıl-mevsim etkileri
ikili lojistik regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın materyali ABD
Ulusal Hayvan Yetiştiricileri Birliği’ne kayıtlı 2003-2005 yılları arasında
yetiştirilen toplam 404460 adet tek doğan buzağının doğum kayıtlarıdır. Analiz
sonuçlarına göre buzağı cinsiyeti, laktasyon sırası ve buzağılama yıl-mevsim
değişkenlerinin buzağı ölü doğumlarına etkileri önemli (P<0.05) bulunmuştur.
Hosmer-Lemeshow uyum iyiliği testi ile modelin iyi uyum gösterdiği
belirlenmiştir (P>0.12). Tüm değişkenler aynı modelde birlikte analiz
edildiğinde, dişilerdeki ölü doğum oranının erkeklere göre 1.03 kat daha fazla
olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, laktasyon sırasının artmasıyla ölü doğum
oranının azaldığı saptanmıştır. Diğer yandan, yaz doğumlarındaki ölü doğum
oranı kış doğumlarından fazla bulunmuştur. Ülkemizde ölü doğum oranına ilişkin
kayıtlar toplanmalı ve bu oran üzerine etkili olabilecek risk faktörleri
belirlenmeli ve böylece buzağı ölümleri kontrol altına alınabilmelidir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Antonogeorgos G, D.B. Panagiotakos, K.N. Priftis and A. Tzonou. 2009. Logistic regression and linear discriminant analyses in evaluating factors associated with asthma prevalence among 10- to 12-years-old children: divergence and similarity of the two statistical methods. International Journal of Pediatrics, 2009:2009.
- Atashi H. 2011. Factors affecting stillbirth and effects of stillbirth on subsequent lactation performance in a Holstein dairy herd in İsfahan. Iranian Journal of Veterinary Research, Shiraz University 12:24-30.
- Bicalho RC, K.N. Galvao, S.H. Cheong, R.O. Gilbert, L.D. Warnick and C.L. Guard. 2007. Effect of stillbirth on dam survival and reproduction performance in Holstein dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science. 90:2797-2803.
- Çokluk Ö, G. Şekercioğlu and S. Büyüköztürk. 2010. Multivariable Statistics for Social Sciences (In Turkish). Pegem Akademi Yayıncılık, Ankara.
- Cook D, P. W.M. Dixon, M.S. Duckworth, K. Kaiser, W.Q. Koehler, W.Q. Meeker and W.R. Stephenson. 2001. Binary response and logistic regression analysis. Part of the Iowa State University NSF/ILI project, Beyond Traditional Statistical Methods. Available at http://www.public.iastate. edu/~stat415/ stephenson/stat415_chapter3.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Field A. 2005. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. 2nd ed. London: Sage.
- Hair J, B. B. Black, B. Babin, R. Anderson and R. Tatham. 2006. Multivariate Data Analysis, 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
- Hosmer D.W. and S. Lemeshow. 2000. Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
- Johnson R.A. and D.W. Wichern. 2005. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
- Mertler C.A. and R.A. Vannatta. 2005. Advanced and Multivariate Statistical Methods: Practical Application and Interpretation, 3rd ed. Pyrczak, Los Angeles.
- Meyer C.L., P.J. Berger, K.J. Koehler , J.R. Thompson and C.G. Sattler. 2001. Phenotypic trends in incidence of stillbirth for Holsteins in the United States. Journal of Dairy Science. 84:515-523.
- Meyer C.L., P.J. Berger and K.J. Koehler. 2000. Interactions among factors affecting stillbirths in Holstein cattle in the United States. Journal of Dairy Science. 83:2657-2663.
- Park, H.M. 2010. Regression models for binary dependent variables using STATA, SAS, R, LIMDEP, and SPSS. The university information technology services (UITS) center for statistical and mathematical computing, Indiana University. Available at http://www.iu.edu/~statmath/stat/all/cdvm/cdvm.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Salfer J. 2005. “Don't kill your calves with kindness” Dairy Star, Available at http://www.extension.umn.edu/agriculture/ dairy/health-and-comfort/dont-kill-your-calves-with-kindness/ (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Sharma S. 1996. Applied Multivariate Techniques, John Wiley & Sons, USA.
- Stephenson B. 2008. Binary response and logistic regression analysis. Available at http://www.public.ias¬tate.edu/ ~stat415/Stephenson/ stat415_chapter3.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Tabachnick B.G. and Fidell L.S. 2007. Using Multivariate Statistics, 5th ed. Pearson.
- Yakubu A., M.M. Muhammed and I.S. Musa-Azara. 2014. Application of multivariate logistic regression model to assess factors of importance influencing prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in Nigerian Goat Breeds. Biotechnology Animal Husbandry 30:79-88.
- Zadeh N.G.H. 2014. Effect of dystocia on the productive performance and calf stillbirth in Iranian Holsteins. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology 16:69-78.
Öz
Logistic regression analysis is a
method to determine the reason-result relationship of independent variable(s)
with dependent variable, which has binary or multiple categorical structures.
In this study, sex of calf, parity and calving year-season effects on
stillbirth were analyzed with binary logistic regression analysis. Study
material was obtained from the USA National Association of Animal Breeders
collected among 2003-2005 with a total of 404460 birth records of single born
calves. According to the results, sex of calf, parity and calving year-season
effects on stillbirth were found statistically significant (P<0.05). The
model showed good fit, based on Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics
(P>0.12). When all variables were analyzed together in the same model,
stillbirth rate of female calves compared to male calves was found to be more
than 1.03 times higher. In addition, risk of stillbirth was decreased by
increasing parity. On the other hand, the risk of stillbirth in summer calves
was found to be higher than winter calves. In our country, data sets on
stillbirth rates should be collected and risk factors that have an effect on
stillbirth must be detected and then calf deaths could be controlled here, too.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Antonogeorgos G, D.B. Panagiotakos, K.N. Priftis and A. Tzonou. 2009. Logistic regression and linear discriminant analyses in evaluating factors associated with asthma prevalence among 10- to 12-years-old children: divergence and similarity of the two statistical methods. International Journal of Pediatrics, 2009:2009.
- Atashi H. 2011. Factors affecting stillbirth and effects of stillbirth on subsequent lactation performance in a Holstein dairy herd in İsfahan. Iranian Journal of Veterinary Research, Shiraz University 12:24-30.
- Bicalho RC, K.N. Galvao, S.H. Cheong, R.O. Gilbert, L.D. Warnick and C.L. Guard. 2007. Effect of stillbirth on dam survival and reproduction performance in Holstein dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science. 90:2797-2803.
- Çokluk Ö, G. Şekercioğlu and S. Büyüköztürk. 2010. Multivariable Statistics for Social Sciences (In Turkish). Pegem Akademi Yayıncılık, Ankara.
- Cook D, P. W.M. Dixon, M.S. Duckworth, K. Kaiser, W.Q. Koehler, W.Q. Meeker and W.R. Stephenson. 2001. Binary response and logistic regression analysis. Part of the Iowa State University NSF/ILI project, Beyond Traditional Statistical Methods. Available at http://www.public.iastate. edu/~stat415/ stephenson/stat415_chapter3.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Field A. 2005. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS. 2nd ed. London: Sage.
- Hair J, B. B. Black, B. Babin, R. Anderson and R. Tatham. 2006. Multivariate Data Analysis, 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
- Hosmer D.W. and S. Lemeshow. 2000. Applied Logistic Regression. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
- Johnson R.A. and D.W. Wichern. 2005. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
- Mertler C.A. and R.A. Vannatta. 2005. Advanced and Multivariate Statistical Methods: Practical Application and Interpretation, 3rd ed. Pyrczak, Los Angeles.
- Meyer C.L., P.J. Berger, K.J. Koehler , J.R. Thompson and C.G. Sattler. 2001. Phenotypic trends in incidence of stillbirth for Holsteins in the United States. Journal of Dairy Science. 84:515-523.
- Meyer C.L., P.J. Berger and K.J. Koehler. 2000. Interactions among factors affecting stillbirths in Holstein cattle in the United States. Journal of Dairy Science. 83:2657-2663.
- Park, H.M. 2010. Regression models for binary dependent variables using STATA, SAS, R, LIMDEP, and SPSS. The university information technology services (UITS) center for statistical and mathematical computing, Indiana University. Available at http://www.iu.edu/~statmath/stat/all/cdvm/cdvm.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Salfer J. 2005. “Don't kill your calves with kindness” Dairy Star, Available at http://www.extension.umn.edu/agriculture/ dairy/health-and-comfort/dont-kill-your-calves-with-kindness/ (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Sharma S. 1996. Applied Multivariate Techniques, John Wiley & Sons, USA.
- Stephenson B. 2008. Binary response and logistic regression analysis. Available at http://www.public.ias¬tate.edu/ ~stat415/Stephenson/ stat415_chapter3.pdf (accessed 3 August 2015).
- Tabachnick B.G. and Fidell L.S. 2007. Using Multivariate Statistics, 5th ed. Pearson.
- Yakubu A., M.M. Muhammed and I.S. Musa-Azara. 2014. Application of multivariate logistic regression model to assess factors of importance influencing prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in Nigerian Goat Breeds. Biotechnology Animal Husbandry 30:79-88.
- Zadeh N.G.H. 2014. Effect of dystocia on the productive performance and calf stillbirth in Iranian Holsteins. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology 16:69-78.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Mühendislik |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 27 Eylül 2016 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 12 Kasım 2015 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 8 Nisan 2016 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2016 |
