Cotton production forecasts of Azerbaijan in the 2023-2027 periods

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 2 - Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Cilt: 60 Sayı: 2, 235 - 245, 05.07.2023

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu , Aytan Zeynalova , Sait Engindeniz

https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.1296642

Cited By: 1

Öz

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the production area and amount for the years 2023-2027, taking into account the 1992-2022 cotton production area and production data of Azerbaijan, one of the countries that left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1992.
Material and methods: The data used in this study were obtained from FAOSTAT and the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The ARIMA method, which is one of the most commonly used methods for univariate time-series estimation, was used in this study.
Results: It was estimated that the production area will decrease continuously in 2023-2027, the average production area and production will be 91,942 ha and 324,156 tons, respectively, and the yield will be 3,549 kg/ha in these five years.
Conclusion: These results indicated that although the increase in productivity in Azerbaijan provides a significant increase in production, the production area should also be increased to become one of the leading countries in the world market. For this, government support needs to be increased.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaijan, cotton growing, cotton production, forecast, ARIMA

Azerbaycan'ın 2023-2027 dönemi pamuk üretim tahminleri

Öz

Amaç: Bu araştırma, 1992 yılında Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği'nden (SSCB) ayrılan ülkelerden biri olan Azerbaycan'ın 1992-2022 pamuk üretim alanı ve üretim verilerini dikkate alarak 2023-2027 yılları için üretim alanı ve miktarını tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Materyal ve Yöntem: Bu araştırmada kullanılan veriler FAOSTAT ve Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti Devlet İstatistik Komitesinden temin edilmiştir. Araştırmada, tek değişkenli zaman serisi tahmini için en yaygın kullanılan yöntemlerden biri olan ARIMA yöntemi kullanılmıştır.
Araştırma Bulguları: 2023-2027 yıllarında üretim alanının sürekli bir düşüş yaşayacağı, ortalama üretim alanı ve üretimin sırasıyla 91.942 ha ve 324.156 ton olacağı, verimin ise ortalama 3.549 kg/ha olacağı tahmin edilmektedir.
Sonuç: Bu sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, Azerbaycan'da verimlilik artışı üretimde önemli bir artış sağlamakla birlikte, dünya pazarında lider ülkelerden biri olabilmek için üretim alanının da artırılması gerekmektedir. Bunun için destekler arttırılmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaycan, pamuk yetiştiriciliği, pamuk üretimi, tahmin, ARIMA

Kaynakça

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