Jeopolitik Risk ve Turizm: Asya Pasifik Ülkeleri

Year 2024, Volume: 5 Issue: 4, 215 - 222, 31.12.2024

Havva Gültekin

https://doi.org/10.52835/19maysbd.1553562

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, jeopolitik riskin, turizm talebi üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaç kapsamında, 1995-2020 dönemi ele alınarak Çin, Hong-Kong, Hindistan, Endonezya, Tayland, Malezya, Japonya ve Güney Kore olmak üzere verisine eksiksiz olarak ulaşılabilen sekiz Asya-Pasifik ülkesi değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmada jeopolitik riskin göstergesi olarak jeopolitik risk endeksi, turizm talebinin göstergesi olarak ise ülkeye gelen turist sayısı, ayrıca turizm sayısı ile ilişkili olabileceğinden tüketici fiyat endeksi değişkenleri ele alınmış ve söz konusu değişkenler arasında kısa ve uzun dönemdeki ilişkinin varlığı panel eş bütünleşme ve panel nedensellik testleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Gerçekleştirilen testler sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, incelenen dönemde jeopolitik risk endeksi ve turizm talebi arasında bir ilişkinin bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Kısa dönem nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlar doğrultusunda yalnızca Hong-Kong ve Endonezya’da jeopolitik risk endeksinden turist sayısına doğru nedensellik bulunduğu, diğer ülkelerde herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunmadığı görülmüştür. Bunun yanı sıra, Çin, Hong-Kong ve Endonezya ülkelerinde tüketici fiyat endeksi değişkeninden turist sayısına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi, Turizm, Panel Eş bütünleşme, Asya-Pasifik

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